Biographical

Portrait of Pablo López

Pablo López PMarlins

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date3-7-1996
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lbs
Age28 years, 1 months, 17 days
BatsL
ThrowsR
2015
2016
2017
0.52018
0.92019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2018 MIA MLB 10 10 58.7 2 4 0 56 18 46 8 87 8.6 2.8 1.2 7.1 50% .281 1.26 4.45 4.14 103 4.58 102.4 0.5
2019 MIA MLB 21 21 111.3 5 8 0 111 27 95 15 95 9.0 2.2 1.2 7.7 49% .299 1.24 4.23 5.09 95 4.19 85.9 1.9
CareerMLB3131170.071201674514123928.82.41.27.549%.2931.254.314.76984.3291.62.4

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2015 MRN Rk AZL 12 3 37.3 2 1 0 37 6 26 1 81 8.9 1.4 0.2 6.3 0% .286 1.15 3.48 3.13 100 4.67 102.5
2016 CLN A MID 17 13 84.3 7 1 0 68 9 56 4 98 7.3 1.0 0.4 6.0 48% .254 0.91 3.19 2.13 97 3.12 68.8
2017 JUP A+ FSL 8 6 45.3 0 3 0 42 7 32 0 85 8.3 1.4 0.0 6.4 59% .307 1.08 2.69 2.18 95 4.38 93.3
2017 MOD A+ CAL 19 18 100.0 5 8 0 113 13 89 6 98 10.2 1.2 0.5 8.0 51% .341 1.26 3.37 5.04 89 4.68 99.6
2018 MIA MLB NL 10 10 58.7 2 4 0 56 18 46 8 87 8.6 2.8 1.2 7.1 50% .281 1.26 4.45 4.14 103 4.58 102.4
2018 JAX AA SOU 8 8 43.7 1 2 0 30 8 51 3 91 6.2 1.6 0.6 10.5 42% .245 0.87 2.54 0.62 82 2.58 54.6
2018 NWO AAA PCL 4 4 18.7 1 1 0 16 4 15 3 102 7.7 1.9 1.4 7.2 47% .236 1.07 5.35 3.38 103 3.18 67.3
2019 MIA MLB NL 21 21 111.3 5 8 0 111 27 95 15 95 9.0 2.2 1.2 7.7 49% .299 1.24 4.23 5.09 95 4.19 85.9
2019 JAX AA SOU 3 3 5.0 0 3 0 13 4 6 3 89 23.4 7.2 5.4 10.8 47% .529 3.40 11.69 21.60 124 10.88 223.9
2019 NWO AAA PCL 2 2 9.3 0 0 0 10 3 10 0 91 9.6 2.9 0.0 9.6 62% .385 1.39 2.61 1.93 83 4.47 92.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2018 949 0.4679 0.4805 0.7566 0.6486 0.3327 0.8472 0.6012 0.2434
2019 1788 0.4950 0.4821 0.7622 0.6497 0.3178 0.8313 0.6237 0.2378
Career27370.48560.48150.76030.64930.32300.83680.61590.2397

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2027 MIN $21,750,000
2026 MIN $21,750,000
2025 MIN $21,750,000
2024 MIN $8,250,000
2023 MIN $5,450,000
2022 MIA $2,450,000
2021 MIA $595,000
2020 MIA $575,000
2019 MIA $555,000
2018 MIA $
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$9,625,000
2019Current$8,250,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$17,875,000
3 yrFuture$65,250,000
9 yrTotal$83,125,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
4 y 93 dExcel1 year/$5.45M (2023)

Details
  • 4 years/$73.5M (2024-27). Signed extension with Minnesota 4/21/23. $1M signing bonus. 24:$8M, 25-27:$21.5M annually. Award bonus: $500,000 for Cy Young ($250,000 for second in vote, $150,000 for third, $100,000 for fourth-sixth). $100,000 for WS MVP, $50,000 for LCS MVP, $25,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star election or selection.
  • 1 year/$5.45M (2023). Re-signed by Miami 1/13/23 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Minnesota in trade from Miami 1/20/23.
  • 1 year/$2.45M (2022). Lost arbitration with Miami 5/21/22 ($3.1M-$2.45M).
  • 1 year/$595,000 (2021). Re-signed by Miami 3/21.
  • 1 year/$575,000 (2020). Re-signed by Miami 3/20.
  • 1 year/$555,000 (2019). Renewed by Miami 3/19.
  • 1 year (2018). Contract selected by Miami 11/20/17. Re-signed by Miami 3/18.
  • Acquired by Miami in trade from Seattle 7/20/17.
  • Signed by Seattle 7/4/12 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela. $280,000 signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
Weighted Mean?????0.0?00?.0000.000.00?0.00.0

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2021-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Pitching challenged team in my league has Bohm and Machado at 3B Is Pablo Lopez for Bohm even deal?
(John from Wisconsin)
Unlikely depending on format. In standard formats, we prefer Bohm by a substantial margin to Lopez. Though, some really like Lopez and you may be able to swing it straight up. It is worth trying at least (and it is not outrageous or offensive to do so). (Jesse Roche)
2021-02-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty league I am looking for starting pitching to help in ERA and WHIP; how would you rank the following for this upcoming season: Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Pablo Lopez. Would these rankings change any when looking long term?
(Flipai from Maryland)
Give me ALL the Pablo Lopez shares. After that, I'd have Urquidy, Framber, and Javier. (Mark Barry)
2020-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Marlins have had a nice story in 2020 and are still alive in the NL playoffs. Who are your 3 top (pleasant) surprises for you from their organization? And, if Sandy Alcantara is not included among those 3 players, could you please evaluate his progress from being a Cardinals' signee?
(ironcityguys from daBurgh)
It basically all has to be on the pitching side, right? I was revisiting that Ozuna deal and they got him and Gallen (and Sierra) out of it. That's not bad at all. Can I include Gallen? I know they flipped him for Chisholm, but he really blossomed in Miami before the deal. If not, it's hard to criticize what they've gotten out of Pablo Lopez and Brian Anderson.

Regarding Alcantara, I think I'm most impressed with the refinement to his control. He's really around the zone a lot, and hasn't always been that way. He's also become a lot more consistent, generally. I saw him a bunch last year and one inning could unravel him. Small sample, but it didn't seem to be the case this year. (Craig Goldstein)
2020-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I didn't pickup Pablo Lopez over the winter when I had a chance, as recommended on TINO, because I wasn't sure about strikeout potential (it's a K/9 dynasty). He's still just around league average, but that's an improvement from last year, and I'm kicking myself, trying to figure out how to avoid this mistake in the future. Are there any ways you can tell when a young pitcher might make gains in K% without a big change in raw stuff? Gerrit Cole would be the extreme example, but maybe not helpful because in his case the strikeout stuff was apparent.
(bozodidthedub from my own failures)
I love Pablo Lopez.

With Lopez specifically, he went through a stretch of looking really good last year, then gave up something like 8 runs in less than an inning and then got hurt. So his bottom line really didn't vibe with what we were watching. To keep an eye on future breakouts, I like to look at walk rates and swinging strike rates. Or even more in depth - swinging strikes for different pitches. So many guys are trading traditional arsenals for the "Throw Your Best Pitch All the Time" method, so if a guy has a standout pitch (Lopez's changeup), it's easy to imagine the scenario where he just throws it more and has more strikeout success. Like this year.

I'm sorry if that sounded ramble-y, I just get excited talking about Marlins pitching, apparently. (Mark Barry)
2020-03-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)Looking at fantasy rankings from various sources/sites, Pablo Lopez is always ranked fairly highly amonst NL Only SP. I do not see anything to really substantiate this in his numbers. Your thoughts and where do you rank him amongst NL Starting Pitchers?
(Craig from Chicago )
I ended up drafting him in the 16-team TINO dynasty, and I think I like him more than the median anyway. It's a good park for his skillset, although the fastball can be a bit too hittable. It's a legit plus change though, and he's gonna get opportunities. I agree there isn't a ton of upside in a shallower format though. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2020-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Of the group of Miami starting pitchers, is there a breakout candidate amongst them? Caleb Smith in a full season? Elieser Hernandez?
(Craig from Chicago)
Of those arms, I am lower on Smith than most and his cost to acquire is too much for my taste. I do like Pablo Lopez still as a potential breakout, but I am far from confident. (Jesse Roche)
2020-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Craig, just had a question about the Marlins Top 10 Under 25 section. Would Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez fall just outside the top 10? Both seem like potential mid-rotation arms, especially Lopez. I really like his K/BB ratio as well. Is it just a case of a low ceiling?
(jrclark20 from Illinois)
Hey. Reasonable question! I don't want to speak for Collin, but I think it's fair to put them towards the back end if that's what you want to do. I don't blame him for seeking upside in that case. I think they're both more back-end types, especially considering their big-league track records thus far. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)What sp's are you targeting as buy low for bounce back weather old, injured, or Mike foltynewicz?
(Spotted cow from Rockford )
I scooped up Folty when he got sent down, thinking it might help him get back on track, and I guess he's been *ok* since coming back up? Jeff Samardzija is boring, but he's been pretty good lately and Pablo Lopez is about to come off the IL, so I'll be trying to nab him everywhere too. (Mark Barry)
2019-06-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Happy Friday Mark...how will the Marlins break the starting pitching logjam once Caleb Smith comes back? Who heads back to New Orleans?
(sportsguy21792 from madison)
Happy Friday!

For a bad team, there aren't many rotations that I find more enjoyable than the Marlins. In addition to Smith coming back, I also really like Pablo Lopez, who should be back soon as well. If I had to guess, I'd think Elieser Hernandez and Zac Gallen probably go back down, even though they've been pretty good. I wouldn't expect Alcantara to be back in New Orleans unless he goes in the tank or they want to limit his innings. (Mark Barry)
2019-04-19 18:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Charlie Blackmon's slow start? Could you give some starters and first basemen that you target to receive in a trade for him? Thanks!
(Matt from MSP)
Blackmon's decline began last season so it might be tough to get value in return from other perceptive fantasy owners. That makes it tricky in that you have to try to get a good player while not making it appear you're selling low. I think Josh Bell has some more upside so he might be a target. Ji-Man Choi is another option. On the pitching side, It is getting late to jump on the Luke Weaver train, but there should still be time. I like Pablo Lopez' upside as well. (Scott Delp)
2019-04-26 16:00:00 (link to chat)Who a waiver wire pitcher in a 15 team league with limited add/drops that may be useful for the next 5 months? Homer?
(Vic from Baltimore)
Ugh, Homer. He waited until I shouted his name from the mountain tops before he turned back into Homer Bailey. I still like him, though, as the profile has gotten better.

In that range-ish, I'd also take a look at Frankie Montas, Mike Soroka and Pablo Lopez. Jordan Lyles has also been interesting so far in Pittsburgh. Sonny Gray is also somehow available on a lot of sites, and he probably shouldn't be. (Mark Barry)
2019-03-18 16:00:00 (link to chat)Does Pablo Lopez make the Marlins rotation?
(Flex F Fox from San Diego)
You know how you're deep into fantasy? When you're on pins and needles about the selection of the Marlins' rotation. Re: Lopez; it's looking more and more like he makes the cut. PECOTA DRA and ERA have him as the best starter on the staff, and Chen/Straily shouldn't be an obstacle. But teams do weird things... (Jon Hegglund)
2019-03-15 16:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you project to make the Marlins rotation?
(Flex F Fox from San Diego)
I don't like to admit it, but I kinda sorta really like Trevor Richards. He started to strike dudes out down the stretch and had a 3.57 DRA in 126 1/3 innings. Otherwise, I'm guessing Urena, Chen, Straily and then maybe Pablo Lopez until Caleb Smith comes back or Sandy Alcantara is ready? (Mark Barry)
2019-03-08 16:00:00 (link to chat)Not sure if you do or know Scoresheet leagues...last NL keeper decision: Pablo Lopez, Stripling or Rich Hill?
(sportsguy21792 from Cube by the window)
I asked the Scoresheet guys, and the best bet is Rich Hill for skill and rotation spot certainty. Assuming you can deal with the trip to the injured list. If you're looking further ahead, then Stripling gets a vote. (Kevin Jebens)
2019-02-18 16:00:00 (link to chat)Any sneaky sleepers from the Marlins rotation to pay attention to in a deeper league? Pablo Lopez or Caleb Smith good examples?
(sportsguy21792 from Madison)
Yeah, they're not bad for endgame speculation in case one of them pans out this year. Smith improved his BB/9 as season went on, Lopez improved his HR/FB. I'd go for Smith simply for the strikeout upside. (Kevin Jebens)
2017-11-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)IS there any hope for the Marlins prospects? Thomas Jones maybe?
(Mike from Miami)
I am obligated to mention Pablo Lopez here I think (Jeffrey Paternostro)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Pablo López has thrown 12,809 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2018 and 2024, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2024, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph), also mixing in a Change (89mph), Slider (84mph), Curve (82mph) and Sinker (95mph).