Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	93	Gio Urshela	2016	0	DNP
2	87	Willy Aybar	2007	0	DNP
3	87	Daniel Murphy	2009	90
4	86	Ryder Jones	2018	82
5	84	Blake DeWitt	2010	81
6	83	Eric Campbell	2010	0	DNP
7	82	Eric Campbell	2011	0	DNP
8	82	Josh Fuentes	2017	0	DNP
9	82	Colin Moran	2017	97
10	82	Brent Morel	2011	88
11	82	Darin Holcomb	2010	0	DNP
12	81	Johan Camargo	2018	116
13	81	Joe Leonard	2013	0	DNP
14	81	Jorge Jimenez	2009	0	DNP
15	81	Seth Mejias-Brean	2015	0	DNP
16	81	Taylor Green	2011	80
17	81	Conor Gillaspie	2012	77
18	81	Jared Goedert	2009	0	DNP
19	81	Michael Almanzar	2015	0	DNP
20	81	Zack Cox	2013	0	DNP
21	81	Carlos Rivero	2012	0	DNP
22	81	Wilson Betemit	2006	98
23	81	Matt Dominguez	2014	77
24	81	Jefry Marte	2015	97
25	81	Zachary Houchins	2017	0	DNP
26	81	Jim Negrych	2009	0	DNP
27	81	Ryan Wheeler	2013	76
28	81	Eric Duncan	2009	0	DNP
29	81	Riccio Torrez	2014	0	DNP
30	81	David Thompson	2018	0	DNP
31	81	Stephen Parker	2012	0	DNP
32	81	Drew Dosch	2016	0	DNP
33	80	Mitchell Delfino	2015	0	DNP
34	80	Andrew Daniel	2017	0	DNP
35	80	Avery Romero	2017	0	DNP
36	80	Kaleb Cowart	2016	58
37	80	Cheslor Cuthbert	2017	77
38	80	Jordy Mercer	2011	0	DNP
39	80	Lonnie Chisenhall	2013	94
40	80	Neil Walker	2010	108
41	80	Rey Navarro	2014	0	DNP
42	80	Josh Harrison	2012	86
43	80	Kyle Seager	2012	111
44	80	Tripper Johnson III	2006	0	DNP
45	80	Paul Hoenecke	2015	0	DNP
46	80	Adrian Gonzalez	2006	113
47	80	Peter Maris	2018	0	DNP
48	80	Matthew Duffy	2013	0	DNP
49	80	Rio Ruiz	2018	78
50	80	Jason Vosler	2018	0	DNP
51	80	Luis Jimenez	2012	0	DNP
52	80	DJ LeMahieu	2013	77
53	79	Andy Marte	2008	69
54	79	Kevin Ahrens	2013	0	DNP
55	79	Chase Austin	2012	0	DNP
56	79	Brian Anderson	2017	66
57	79	Justin Bloxom	2012	0	DNP
58	79	Tyler Pastornicky	2014	69
59	79	Mauricio Ramos	2016	0	DNP
60	79	Connor Joe	2017	0	DNP
61	79	Eric Wood	2017	0	DNP
62	79	Vinnie Catricala	2013	0	DNP
63	79	Andrew Burns	2015	0	DNP
64	79	Luis Valbuena	2010	59
65	78	Adam Abraham	2011	0	DNP
66	78	German Duran	2009	0	DNP
67	78	Zach Shank	2015	0	DNP
68	78	Sergio Miranda	2011	0	DNP
69	78	Brandon Macias	2013	0	DNP
70	78	Cody Asche	2014	94
71	78	Omar Quintanilla	2006	61
72	78	Marquez Smith	2009	0	DNP
73	78	Yamaico Navarro	2012	72
74	78	Brandon Laird	2012	81
75	78	Jesse Hodges	2018	0	DNP
76	77	Ruben Gotay	2007	79
77	77	Jonathan Meyer	2015	0	DNP
78	77	Jose Flores	2012	0	DNP
79	77	Didi Gregorius	2014	90
80	77	Yolmer Sanchez	2016	66
81	77	Michael Morse	2006	87
82	77	Christian Villanueva	2015	0	DNP
83	77	Steve Lombardozzi	2013	76
84	77	Travis Mattair	2013	0	DNP
85	77	Chris Johnson	2009	56
86	77	Enrique Hernandez	2016	79
87	77	Mark Teahen	2006	117
88	77	Stefan Welch	2013	0	DNP
89	77	Tyler Goeddel	2017	0	DNP
90	77	Mikey White	2018	0	DNP
91	77	Wes Hodges	2009	0	DNP
92	76	Brandon Drury	2017	83
93	76	Shane Costa	2006	74
94	76	Ryon Healy	2016	120
95	76	Reid Brignac	2010	89
96	76	Miguel Gomez	2017	85
97	76	Rob Brantly	2014	0	DNP
98	76	Marwin Gonzalez	2013	72
99	76	Johnny Giavotella	2012	75
100	76	Austin Hedges	2017	75

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Drafted as an archetypal Giants infield prospect, Arroyo enticed their scouts with his up-the-middle approach, measured swing and the defensive makeup to handle any spot in the infield. In the latter stages of his development, Arroyo moved away from shortstop, but took steps to enhance his game power, employing a leg-kick to tear up the Pacific Coast League before big-league pitchers swept that leg right out from under him. Between his promotion and a season-ending hand injury, he hit the ball on the ground too often and swung through too many sliders, becoming a near-automatic out once the count reached two strikes. With little left to prove in the minors, Arroyo will have to rework his approach through experience at the highest level, but most scouts remain bullish that his plus hit tool will eventually shine through.
2017		Imagine a Giants middle infield prospect. Now imagine a Giants middle infield prospect with a pedigree. Don't worry about the 2016 numbers, which were primarily a product of the run environment in Double-A Richmond, although if you want to worry about the low walk rates, that's acceptable. Arroyo remains what he's been: a shortstop who probably doesn't have the range to continue being a shortstop and a hitter who probably doesn't need to be a shortstop to be valuable. Despite the lack of speed he positions himself well, wields a strong arm and moves well glove side, so with Matt Duffy in Tampa Bay, Arroyo's natural destination appears to be third base. Offensively his short swing translates into a high contact rate and doubles power. In other words, he'll fit right in.
2016		A scout's take on Arroyo is best gauged by the number of adverbs s/he inserts between the helping and main verbs in the sentence "He can hit." This typically ranges from one to three, and is accompanied by some degree of doubt about the Tampa native's ability to play shortstop, which becomes less relevant with each additional "really" in the description of his skills at the plate. Arroyo elicits those compliments because of his precocious pitch recognition and feel for the barrel, both of which suggest that he could catch the express train to the majors. If he reaches his ceiling, Arroyo will be a contact machine who bats near the top of the order and plays above-average defense at the keystone; in other words, he'll be a right-handed version of everything Joe Panik wasn't supposed to be.
2015		The most surprising selection in the first round of the 2013 draft, Arroyo boasts one exceptional trait: His pure hitting ability, which was on display when the Giants reneged on an overly aggressive assignment to Low-A Augusta and let him keep raking at Salem-Keizer following rehab for a sprained thumb. Less clear is whether Arroyo has the athleticism to stay at shortstop, a concern because his above-average arm would be wasted at second base, and because his gap power might not stand out on the right side of the infield. The Giants handed the Floridian $1.87 million to prove cynical evaluators wrong, and while the results have leaned in the club's favor so far, Arroyo will need to fare better in a second try at Augusta to keep his stock from falling.
2014		The Giants tend to favor pitchers with their early-round draft picks, but broke habit to take the big shortstop from the Tampa area 25th overall. Evaluators don’t think he'll stick at the position as a big leaguer, as he features a shortstop's arm but not a shortstop's quickness. That leaves him as a player without a fit: The power isn’t likely to play at third base, and his lack of quickness might make even second base a stretch. The Giants will stick with him at short for the time being and if he ultimately hits they'll find a place for him. Early returns from his Arizona League debut were promising, but there are at least three or four years of obstacles and opportunities between Arroyo and The Show.

BP Articles

BP Chats

BP Roundtables

PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC