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July 7, 2016 BP Top 50The Best Midseason ProspectsLet’s make a couple things clear right up top:
1) There are no recent draftees or international prospect signings in this ranking. That means no Kevin Maitan or Corey Ray. 2) There are no prospect-eligible players who are currently in the majors in this ranking. This means no Lucas Giolito (pitching today for the Nationals) but yes Julio Urias (probably throwing one inning at a time for a while in Glendale to stay fresh/limit workload).
Another thing that has been made clear throughout this process is that the prospect landscape has flattened considerably. We might be exiting
This bore itself out as our team discussed and debated the prospects below, including those at the very top. Nothing was a given, and the discussion for the top spot spread to the top four players on the list; beyond that it got even messier. Ultimately, this list is my own, informed and influenced heavily by the in-person views that our team supplied, as well as those provided by industry contacts. Enough preface: Below you will find the Baseball Prospectus Midseason Top 50 Prospects, along with the most compelling reason they’ll succeed as well as what might cause them not to live up to expectations. —Craig Goldstein
1. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He Might Fail: Crawford hasn't hit as much against upper-minors competition as you'd like to see from your top prospect, the glove and approach give him a very high floor, but if he is more of a .260/.350/.350 hitter, he may just be a solid, everyday guy.
2. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Why He Might Fail: His shirts could become tighter and tighter until he earns Dan Uggla comparisons as a shirt-wearer and a baseball player.
3. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why He Might Fail: We don’t know what he looks like after 110 pitches in a game nor innings in a season. It’s not a given that the rate stats hold up to those thresholds (or beyond), and we have no real idea what the dropoff will look like. Also he’s a pitcher, so injury always looms.
4. Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros
5. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Why He Might Fail: It’s not a lock that he’ll stay at said premium position, and if he is forced to move to the hot corner, the value obviously drops substantially.
6. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why He Might Fail: If he were to have to move from center field, he likely has to play left because of his arm, and continued health woes could sap some of his explosiveness.
7. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Why He Might Fail: If his aggressive approach is exploited by more advanced arms, it could culminate in a glove-dependent profile that doesn’t get on base enough to avoid the bottom third of an order.
8. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Why He Might Fail: If the changeup lags and makes him a two-pitch guy with effort in his delivery. That sounds a lot like a reliever, albeit a damned good one.
9. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
10. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves Why He Might Fail: All of that above-averageness might be somehow less than the sum of the parts, in which case he’s still above average. 11. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox Why He Might Fail: Advanced arms figure out how to sequence against and manipulate an aggressive hitter who can’t counter with his own adjustment.
12. Joey Gallo, CI, Texas Rangers
Why He Might Fail: He just might not make enough contact. He’s struck out in nearly half of his big-league at-bats and is running a strikeout rate north of 30 percent in his second spin through Triple-A.
13. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
14. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
15. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Why He Might Fail: Still a work in progress, the approach and an unusual hand path could falter against better arms and better spin. If the bat doesn’t develop as anticipated, it is still a major-league package, but not an impact one.
16. Manuel Margot, CF, San Diego Padres
Why He Might Fail: Fail is a relative term here. Sure, anyone could pull a Brandon Wood and just not hit at all, but realistically, Margot’s floor is as a player who hits .250 with no power instead of .280. That’s still a big leaguer, if not an impact one.
17. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Why He Might Fail: An ugly showing in his first few starts demonstrated how even “safe” pitching prospects can get hit around if they don’t command the ball well. Berrios probably will do better in that regard down the road but, well, we saw what happened when he isn’t on.
18. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Why He Might Fail: Is it too glib to just write “Coors Field?”
19. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Why He Might Fail: He could gain weight in his lower half, forcing a shift to first base, where the power and hit tools aren’t quite as special.
20. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
Why He Might Fail: He’ll eventually stop being young for his level, making for fewer caveats or excuses for a lack of production. The hit tool gains don’t come to fruition, making for a glove-first profile that doesn’t support more than a second-division starting role.
21. Ozhaino Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
22. Lewis Brinson, CF, Texas Rangers
Why He Might Fail: The glove carries him to the majors, but the hit tool could still stall against premium pitching and he might not make enough consistent quality contact to ever justify a starting role.
23. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He Might Fail: Well, he's probably not a center fielder. And he doesn't have that much power. The arm would limit him to left field, where tweener profiles go to die. It is also possible Dave Brundage will just decide to never play him again, too.
24. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Why He Might Fail: Calling him slight of build is an understatement, and as good as the stuff is, you have to wonder if he’s going to be able to handle the rigors of a 180-200 inning workload.
25. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
Why He Might Fail: His size could create a strike zone that has too many soft spots for him to hit for average and his penchant for taking pitches only exacerbates the issue, limiting the functionality of his power.
26. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland
Why He Might Fail: His aggressive approach to the game puts his body at risk, and could lead to a career peppered by injury. The swing remains lengthy to the ball, and he could have hot and cold streaks at the big-league level, struggling to find consistency.
27. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland
Why He Might Fail: His swing can get long, limiting the effectiveness of the hit tool; his troubles with lefties could limit him to a strong-side platoon role; and he might be best fit for a corner spot.
28. Eloy Jimenez, RF, Chicago Cubs
Why He Might Fail: His aggressive approach could get exploited as his moves up the organizational ladder and down the defensive spectrum, making the bat less palatable, though still playable.
29. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
Why He Might Fail: We’ve seen speed-first prospects struggle, in the form of Billy Hamilton, and a flip from shortstop to second could impact his defensive value as well. Alternatively, he could keep yelling at executives.
30. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays Why He Might Fail: The glove might still demand a shift down the defensive spectrum, making the bat more common than special. 31. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why He Might Fail: Because Bell is going to play first base—at least as long as he’s a member of the Pirates organization—he has a ton of pressure on his bat, and if you’re looking for your prototypical 30-homer first baseman, you should probably look elsewhere.
32. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Why He Might Fail: His best defensive spot is left field, and the tepid power projection means there’s a ton riding on that unorthodox swing, which might not work further up the chain despite present success.
33. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Why He Might Fail: If his swagger on the bump too routinely blurs the line of stubbornness, he might never develop enough trust in his change and nibbles too frequently, forcing a move to the bullpen (where he can still be really, really good).
34. Gleyber Torres, MI, Chicago Cubs
Why He Might Fail: If he doesn’t stick at shortstop, he doesn’t have the offensive skill set to be a first-division regular. That’s all I got.
35. Franklin Barreto, 2B/SS, Oakland Athletics
Why He Might Fail: If the aggressive promotion schedule reinforces failure in the box, the hit tool never quite actualizes, and his inconsistent fundamentals push him to the grass his bat doesn’t profile nearly as well.
36. Jake Thompson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He Might Fail: He's a four-pitch guy who could lack a consistent swing-and-miss offering, making him more of a back-end starter than something more.
37. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Why He Might Fail: The change might never get to “useful," in which case he becomes a two-pitch lefty with a nasty slider, which sounds a lot like a reliever.
38. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why He Might Fail: The delivery continues to cause issues for his lower-half health, which could lead to either a domino effect of structural injuries, compromised command, or both.
39. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
Why He Might Fail: The frame and effort in his delivery could preclude reliable control, making him a middle reliever with good stuff but limited long-term utility at the big-league level.
40. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Why He Might Fail: It’s pretty much all projection for his power, and that power is going to be a prerequisite rather than a luxury if he ends up in a corner.
41. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Why He Might Fail: Well, we definitely haven't mentioned yet that he walks a lot of dudes. Despite fairly simple mechanics, Newcomb struggles to repeat his delivery, and still lacks a clear third pitch. He may end up better-suited to a late-inning role.
42. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why He Might Fail: A move down the defensive spectrum would put more pressure on a bat that is already without hope for pop, and could push the entire profile into utility territory.
43. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres
Why He Might Fail: His free-swinging ways hinder his hunt for power and push potential OBP problems to the surface. Right-handed power is the tool du jour, but it might show itself in a platoon role for Renfroe.
44. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Why He Might Fail: He’s referred to as “Brett” so often that he loses his vaunted confidence, doesn’t go after hitters, becomes a nibbler, and eventually an erratic bullpen arm.
45. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Why He Might Fail: The change is still in the developmental stages, the command and control both leave a lot to be desired, and his mechanics scare the heck out of many.
46. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Why He Might Fail: The glove might not work behind the plate, which would put too much pressure on a profile that’s dependent on a merely solid hit tool, even if the expected power does arrive.
47. Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Why He Might Fail: He’s just now tasting Double-A, and many a plus changeup has carved up the lower minors only to stall at the upper levels. If he does stall, he can be a relief option who is effective against both sides thanks to the cambio.
48. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
Why He Might Fail: If he fails to develop a competent weapon to combat left-handed batters, it'll push him toward the back of the rotation or the back of the bullpen.
49. Brett Phillips, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Why He Might Fail: If his laugh cascades around the rafters of Miller Park, it could touch off a seismic event that dislodges the beer slide and initiates a Rube Goldbergian series of events that drowns Bernie Brewer, knocks the sausage-race Brat unconscious, and leads to a pitchfork-wielding mob chasing him to Sheboygan, where he’s last seen jet skiing off across the dark waters of Lake Michigan.
50. Ian Happ, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Why He Might Fail: His longer swing and high strikeout totals could get exposed against big-league competition, and the unusual tool set might never quite fit an everyday profile, in which case Happ would ultimately have more of a utility future.
Special thanks to Brendan Gawlowski, Wilson Karaman, Christopher Crawford, Jeffrey Paternostro, Adam McInturff, Mark Anderson, and Bret Sayre for their assistance on this article.
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
54 comments have been left for this article.
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I know this was probably written in advance by a bit, but Yohander Mendez is in AAA now.
As far as I know Mendez's start in Triple-A was a one-off, and not a scheduled promotion. That can change, of course.