What You Need to Know:... (04/08)
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April 8, 2015 Some Projection LeftTop Power Tools
While pitching is likely to dominate for the remainder of the decade, those of you who dig the long ball can rest somewhat easy knowing there’s help for the homer on the way. A number of hitters with big-time power potential will debut in the next two seasons, including three with legitimate shots to lead the league in homers and extra-base hits some season soon. Keep in mind that for this list I’m looking at in-game power potential. There are several hitters who have high raw power grades who do not make this list, as there are too many flaws in the rest of their games to give them a realistic chance of reaching said potential. With that in mind, here are the top 10 power hitting prospects in baseball, and why they have a chance to stand out in a low-scoring era. 1. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers Potential power grade: 80 Gallo’s power tool might be the most famous tool in all of minor-league baseball; I’ve never seen people so uniformly stop what they were doing as I did when Gallo was taking BP at last year’s Futures Game in Minneapolis. He’s strong, he’s got natural loft, and his ability to transfer his weight allows him to hit tape-measure shots to any part of the field. Assuming the hit tool can be even fringe average, Gallo has a chance to be a perennial 30 to 40 homer player throughout his career. 2. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs Potential power grade: 80 Bryant might not have the raw power of Gallo—no prospect in baseball does—but he’s not that far off. And when you combine it with an above-average hit tool, you understand why many believe he’s the best offensive prospect in baseball. Bryant has a wide set-up, but he’s strong in his lower half and stays balanced throughout his swing. That, along with his natural uppercut, gives him easy plus-plus power, as seen in his 43 homers in 2014. That balance and plane also give him the ability to hit the ball out to right-center, and he’s a threat to hit any pitch on any part of the plate out of the ballpark. 3. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins Potential power grade: 80 In case you don’t remember a time before Kris Bryant, at the end of 2013 Sano was considered to be the prospect with the game's most raw. Though he’s been usurped, Sano still has loads of power from the right side, thanks in large part to some of the strongest wrists you’ll see and plus-plus bat speed. He also does a good job of getting rotational, though like many young prospects he can get pull-happy and his hips will clear too early. 4. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros Potential power grade: 65 Unlike the names above him, Correa’s in-game power is still very much in development—though we saw glimpses of his plus-plus pop potential before he fractured his fibula last summer. Like Bryant—to a lesser extent—Correa has a balanced swing from the right side. His plus bat speed, along with his ability to transfer his weight quickly, allows him to explode on the baseball. He’s still filling out his frame, but the bat speed and natural loft give him above-average power right now, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him become one of the top power-hitting middle infielders in baseball, assuming he can stay at shortstop. 5. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees Potential power grade: 65 Judge gets the higher power grade than the guy who follows him on this list, but Judge has a little lower chance of reaching his power potential—enough to perhaps justify dropping Judge a spot. If you had to guess, based on his physique, which position Judge plays, you might say pass-rushing defensive end or ‘tweener power forward. Despite his long limbs, Judge has a short, direct swing to the baseball, and when he gets rotational, he hits moon shots to every part of the field. Whether his real position is first base or corner outfield, he should be hitting 20-plus homers a year in Yankee Stadium as soon as 2016. 6. Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics Potential power grade: 60 Yes, Olson’s 37 homers last year came in the Cal League, a league that is notorious for inflating power totals. While the friendly confines assuredly helped Olson, there’s reason to believe those homers will continue onto the upper levels. Olson is a patient hitter—he led all of minor-league baseball in walks in 2014—but when he gets his pitch, his immense strength and a natural uppercut swing allow him to hit towering shots to right and right-center field, and occasionally he’ll take the ball out to the opposite field as well, despite having only average bat speed. There’s a lot of swing-and-miss here and he’s a below-average defender at first base, so the power will have to carry Olson to become an average regular. I believe it can. 7. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres Power grade: 60 First, let’s all congratulate Hunter Renfroe for being the one prospect the Padres decided they wanted to keep. Congrats, Hunter! In all seriousness, Renfroe was the best offensive prospect in the system before the Padres decided to rebuild the roster, and his calling card is strength and a swing path that allows him to hit the ball out to every part of the field. He reminds me at times of a less-advanced Jayson Werth, and though there’s some work to be done, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he hits 20 homers a year like Werth did in his prime. 8. Steven Moya, 1B/OF, Detroit Tigers Power grade: 60 Moya finally had his breakout season, finishing fourth in minor-league baseball with 35 home runs and 71 extra-base hits. Like Judge, Moya is massive, and he uses all of his 6-foot-7 frame to crush pitches on any part of the plate. The reason the power grade drops from plus-plus to plus is that Moya has terrible plate discipline, and that, along with his long swing, makes it difficult to project more than a 60 power tool at this time. However, if he does show more patience at the plate, he has a chance to show special power. 9. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers Power grade: 60 I rank Mazara ninth on this list at the risk of being murdered by the prospect team, but consider it more of a compliment to the names above than an insult to Mazara. The ball jumps off the lefty's bat, and though there’s some pre-swing movement, once he gets going he stays quiet and balanced with enough loft to project well above-average power at the next level. I still have some concerns about how he’ll handle advanced breaking-stuff—a common weakness for inexperienced hitters—but it wouldn’t shock me if Mazara was a middle-of-the-order hitter in the next few years. 10. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees Power grade: 60 There are plenty of guys with plus power tools who could have rounded out this list, but because of his approach and big raw power, Bird squeezes on. He’s selective but, like Olson, when he gets his pitch he’ll use his strong lower half and excellent weight transfer to crush balls out to right and right-center field, with the occasional opposite field shot to keep things interesting. He gets compared to Nick Johnson by a lot of scouts I speak with, but unlike Johnson, Bird has the potential to hit 30 homers in his prime, with 20-plus more likely.
Christopher Crawford is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @CVCrawfordBP
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Fantasy Freestyle: Five Bold Predictions
So Vogelbach is now too flawed to show up? That's disappointing.
Was never high on Vogelbach, unfortunately. Sorry to disappoint.