March 12, 2015

BP Unfiltered

The Most Volatile Starting Rotations, the Least Volatile Starters

by Sam Miller

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To answer this question from jfranco77,

Can we get a follow-up looking at all the teams? Pretty please? Just some kind of ranking from 1-30 of their 90% FRA minus their 10% FRA?

on this article, by Matthew Trueblood,

Because the thing is, the Indians could have one of the best starting rotations in baseball—or they could be a nightmare.

All 30 teams, ranked by "volatility", in which volatility is defined simply as the difference between the 90th percentile ERA and the 10th percentile ERA of the top five starters. It does not include the volatility introduced by injury risk, but rather focuses on performance outcomes. Averaged, but not weighted, among each staff:

And my super-fast analysis of these facts: Cubs. Indians and Blue Jays. Marlins. Royals.

The most volatile individual pitchers, among these 150 starters:

• 11. Tony Cingrani, 2.29 runs
• 10. Alex Colome, 2.29 runs
• 9. Hector Noesis, 2.30 runs
• 8. Jordan Lyles, 2.33 runs
• 7. Ross Detwiler, 2.36 runs
• 6. Jesse Hahn, 2.39 runs
• 5. Joe Kelly, 2.42 runs
• 4. Tyler Matzek, 2.44 runs
• 3. Carlos Martinez, 2.47 runs
• 2. Shane Greene, 2.53 runs
• 1. Aaron Sanchez, 2.73 runs

All five Indians starters are more volatile than the median pitcher.

and the least:

• 11. Kyle Hendricks, 1.72 runs
• 10. Bartolo Colon, 1.71 runs
• 9. Madison Bumgarner, 1.71 runs
• 8. Tim Hudson, 1.71 runs
• 7. Cole Hamels, 1.71 runs
• 6. James Shields, 1.68 runs
• 5. Johnny Cueto, 1.66 runs
• 4. Jered Weaver, 1.64 runs
• 3. Adam Wainwright, 1.63 runs
• 2. Felix Hernandez, 1.60 runs
• 1. Clayton Kershaw, 1.56 runs

Fast analysis: Kershaw.

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @SamMillerBB
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