Prospects Will Break Y... (11/08)
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November 6, 2013 Prospects Will Break Your HeartSeattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects
Prospect rankings primer The Top Ten
What Happened in 2013: Walker started at the Double-A level and finished his season with three starts at the major-league level, displaying not only high-level stuff but also the necessary makeup to stand on a major-league mound as a 21-year-old. Strengths: Electric fastball from easy release; works in the 94-96 range; can get more when he needs more; good movement to the arm side; cutter is a monster pitch; 89-93 with late horizontal movement to the glove side; curveball has big depth in the 73-76 range; average but effective offering; excellent pickoff move; big competitor. Weaknesses: Command is below average; lacks plus projection; can work up in the zone too often; curveball has nice shape but can get soft; tendency to start it too high in the zone; will struggle to be effective unless it plays with sharper fastball command; changeup can get too firm; lacks quality fade. Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 7; no. 2 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; ready for majors Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: One of the top fantasy pitching prospects in the game, Walker has the type of arm that can help contribute strongly across all categories. I’m not sold that he’ll be someone who sits near the top of the league leaderboard in strikeouts, but there will be enough to go around (think around 190-200 at his peak). The Year Ahead: Walker needs to refine his command and his secondary arsenal, but the fastball is a high-end major-league pitch, and the cutter can bail him out of situations. Oddly enough, the curve that received all the minor-league hype received the least amount of industry love, at least as far as major-league projection is concerned. Don’t rule out his changeup becoming a much better pitch than people are projecting; it doesn’t look good now, but he has feel for pitching and the power of the fastball will assist in the deceptive elements of the offering. I wouldn’t be shocked if it develops into a plus pitch down the line. Give it time. Major league ETA: Debuted in 2013
What Happened in 2013: It’s a small sample, but Peterson did exactly what a polished college bat should do in the lower minors, which is slug .553 over two spots, including 13 home runs is 55 games. Strengths: Natural hitter; easy to the ball; good extension; uses the entire field; shows plus power potential; doesn’t sell out for the tool; strength to lift the ball; arm is strong enough for third. Weaknesses: Glove is below average at third; below-average range; likely home is across the diamond at first; has work ethic to improve at position, but the bat is the carrying tool; has to hit. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division third baseman Realistic Role: 5; second-division first baseman Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; difficult profile but good polish at present with plus projections on hit/power. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The key with Peterson is how long he can maintain that 3B eligibility, even if his future eventually lies across the diamond. If his bat comes close to maxing out, that’s the difference between a stud at the hot corner and a back-end starter at first base. However, it’s a tough task to put up big power numbers as a right-handed bat at Safeco. The Year Ahead: Peterson could be ready to move fast, possibly reaching Double-A by summer. The bat is his ticket to a first-division future, and the reports since he signed have been very positive; his bat-to-ball is very easy, and the power is already showing up in game action. He’s going to hit. The big question is: Will he become a 6/6 hit/power type or will he fall short of those projections? Falling short with the stick could come with an even bigger sting if he does in fact shift over to first at some point in the development process, a move that my sources seem to think is a likely outcome. Major league ETA: 2015
What Happened in 2013: Paxton logged 145 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, but finally got a taste of the majors: four starts with surprisingly intense stuff and subsequent results. Strengths: Plus-plus velocity from the left side; can work 94-95; touch higher; shows average curveball that has the shape and depth to play as plus when he commands it; has a usable cutter that could play to average; body to log innings. Weaknesses: Long arms can get out of whack in the delivery; comes high front side and leaves it long in the back (mullet mechanics); command profile is below average; inconsistent secondary stuff; changeup is below average at present; lacks much projection. Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter Realistic Role: 5; late-innings reliever Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; ready for major-league role Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If Paxton does stick in the rotation, he’ll do the most damage in strikeouts and ERA, as high walk rates and pitch counts could limit his impact in wins and WHIP. As a reliever, he’d have the whole “lefties can’t be closers” thing going against him, but his stuff is good enough to break though that glass ceiling. The Year Ahead: Paxton’s call-up performance shocked me, as the velocity was better and more consistent than I recall seeing, and the overall command was better as well. I’m not sold that the Paxton of 2014 will look like the Paxton of late 2013, but I’ll gladly admit I’m wrong. The delivery concerns me, and I think the length and the deep-arm pickup in the back will limit command and secondary utility, and major-league hitters will eventually adjust to his velocity. If he can maintain his delivery, getting over the front side, I think he has the stuff to stick in a rotation. If not, he’s a nice weapon to have in the bullpen; a long-armed lefty who can pump fastballs in the mid-90s. Major league ETA: Debuted in 2013
What Happened in 2013: Sanchez made 20 starts in the Midwest League at the age of 18, walking only 18 batters in 113 innings of work. Strengths: Plus-plus pitchability; easy delivery; simple/no frills; despite short/squatty stature, can create angle by pounding the lower zone with lively fastball; can work low 90s; has touched higher; curveball and changeup will both flash plus potential; can locate secondary stuff for strikes; excellent command profile; advanced for age. Weaknesses: Colon-ian body as a teenager; the delivery works and he can repeat, so its not a major issue; lacks any physical projection; fastball velocity would ebb and flow; would dip into 80s; curveball and changeup can play but might not be impact pitches; curve can get too short and flat; changeup can get too firm in the mid-80s. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4/5 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; teenager with a bad body Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If it weren’t for his potential future home being a great place to pitch, Sanchez would be a better real-life pitcher than fantasy one. As a potential innings eater (pun intended), his rate stats won’t likely cause you to swoon, but they’ll add up. The Year Ahead: Sanchez gets a bad rap because of the body, and I’m not suggesting it’s something to overlook. But Sanchez makes things look easy, from the delivery and release to strike throwing and sequencing. He knows how to pitch, and his polish and poise on the mound should allow him to find success all the way up to the majors. The secondary stuff can play a little bland, and the fastball isn’t so overpowering that he can live on its back forever, but he has a chance to develop into a mid-rotation horse if he can stay healthy and the secondary stuff can tick up. Major league ETA: 2016
What Happened in 2013: After starting in extended spring training, Diaz made 13 appearances in the rookie-level Appalachian League, finishing the year with a miniscule era and a prospect trajectory powered by jet fuel. Strengths: Loose, easy arm action; fastball works 92-95; touches higher; big wiggle on the pitch; projects to be a plus-plus offering; can spin a tight curveball in the mid-70s; has depth and can use it as a weapon; skinny frame with some projection; good feel for control; good command projection. Weaknesses: Changeup is below average; needs to improve the feel for the pitch; body needs to add strength; can revert to throwing instead of pitching; likes to live up in the zone. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4/5 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High; has yet to reach full-season ball Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It’s easy to dream on Diaz being a high-end fantasy starter, and he hasn’t given us any reason not to. The fastball-curveball combination could lead to large strikeout totals, and Diaz is a strong candidate to break out at Low-A next season. The Year Ahead: Diaz could explode as a prospect in 2014, as he looks to make the jump to full-season ball. The delivery is smooth and easy, and the arm is very fluid and whippy. The fastball works low-mid-90s, and he can sit in the higher range without much issue. The secondary stuff needs work, especially the feel for the changeup, but he has plenty of time to refine. This could be the top prospect in the system a year from now. Major league ETA: 2017
What Happened in 2013: The 16-year-old Brazilian made six starts at rookie-level Pulaski, missing 27 bats in 22 innings against much, much older competition. Strengths: Impressive arm strength; fastball can sit in the low 90s and has touched near-elite velocity in bursts; delivery isn’t too complicated; manages size well; shows advanced pitchability; shows multiple breaking ball looks; changeup shows fading action and could end up over plus. Weaknesses: He’s a big boy; body could trend negative; fastball velocity was inconsistent; command is below average at present; secondary stuff flashes but lacks consistency; struggles to stay over the ball/finish his delivery. Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4/5 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Extreme risk; short-season resume; was born in 1996 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The upside is enormous with Gohara, but ETA matters when filling out a minor-league roster. Stashing a pitcher with his potential can pay off in spades, as he has the raw tools to develop into a frontline fantasy starter, but it’s a long time to wait on an arm. The Year Ahead: The Mariners don’t have to rush the young Brazilian lefty, so another round of extended spring training and short-season ball could be the ticket, but don’t rule out a jump to the full-season level in 2014. The pitchability is there, but the raw stuff is a bit too unruly at times and hard to gain command of. He’s a long way off, but the ceiling is enormous. This is a big-bodied lefty with the potential for a plus-plus fastball and a plus secondary arsenal. That’s a beast. Major league ETA: 2018
What Happened in 2013: A polished college player, Taylor swung a good bat over two minor-league stops, and continued the trend in the Arizona Fall League, winning over doubters at every stop. Strengths: Baseball skills/field IQ; plus run; above-average leather at short; makes the plays he is supposed to make; has good bat-to-ball skills; could end up a 5+ hitter. Weaknesses: The bat isn’t a special weapon; can sting the ball, but won’t be a power threat; down-the-lineup glove-first type; solid but not spectacular. Overall Future Potential: 5; major-league regular Realistic Role: Low 5; second-division player Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: A 25- or 30-steal threat who can actually hit a little is a tempting package, especially when he comes with shortstop eligibility. Unfortunately, he’s blocked by Brad Miller, so the opportunity he needs could be tough to come by in Seattle. The Year Ahead: Taylor is the type of prospect I’ve traditionally overlooked; he plays the game with skill, but the overall profile isn’t sexy and I like sexy. Do not overlook Chris Taylor! He might not end up being anything more than a second-division player, but he can bring a lot to a team with his glove at shortstop and his speed, and the bat might lack punch but he’s going to battle at the plate. This is the type of player who sticks around the game for a decade or more, and will most likely have a better career than a healthy chunk of the sexy prospects who get more attention, including the ones ahead of him on this list. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2013: Pike made the jump from the AZL in 2013 to full-season ball in 2014, making 22 starts, showing the ability to miss bats and force weak contact against older competition. Strengths: Smooth delivery; pitches with athleticism; fastball can work low 90s; has touched higher; good arm-side life on the offering; curveball and changeup can flash; both pitches project to at least solid-average; good feel for sequence. Weaknesses: Fastball velocity would dip into upper 80s; stuff can get soft; curveball break can lack intensity; command is below average; doesn’t always attack hitters. Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter Realistic Role: Low 5; no. 5 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; good three-pitch mix but long way to go Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Not someone to target on skills alone from a fantasy perspective, but if he were afforded the opportunity to pitch in Safeco, his raw stats might make him appear more skilled than he actually is. More of a deeper-league flier. The Year Ahead: Pike can flash above-average stuff, but I’ve never seen him look dominant in my limited sample with the player. The fastball velocity is inconsistent, but when the arm is feeling it, he can work low-90s and touch higher from the left-side, showing two average secondary offerings that he can sequence. He’s a nice prospect who has a chance to step forward with command refinement and secondary development, but the ceiling doesn’t belong in the same building as some of the other young arms in the system. Major league ETA: 2016
What Happened in 2013: With only a short-season resume since signing in 2011, Marlette finally advanced to the full-season level, and the offensive potential that made him a fifth-round pick was on display in the Midwest League. Strengths: Comes from a highly competitive amateur background; shows bat speed; power potential; excellent raw strength and lift in the bat; arm is strong behind the plate; lauded work ethic and makeup; receiving skills improved. Weaknesses: Offense is ahead of the glove; plate discipline and approach need work; needs to slow down on defense; rushes throws; footwork needs refinement; hit tool could limit game power. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Realistic Role: High 4; backup catcher Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; dual-threat developmental plan Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: In leagues where fewer than 15 catchers are rostered, Marlette probably does not have the type of upside you’d want to see out of a prospect at the position. If he’s a .260 hitter with 15-18 bombs, that’s nice in deeper leagues, but it’s essentially what Wilson Ramos did in 2013—and he didn’t crack the top 15. The Year Ahead: Scouts seem to like Marlette, dating back to his amateur days when his power was turning heads on the showcase circuit. As a receiver, he is a still raw, and the bat is still the driving force in his status. But his makeup and competitive background offer hope when it comes to his defensive development behind the plate, and even though his road to the majors won’t be expedited because of the dual-threat process, the long-term outcome could be a very good player, one who can not only show some bat-to-ball ability and pop, but catch-and-throw skills behind the plate. That’s a valuable player. Major league ETA: 2016
What Happened in 2013: After a slow start in an unforgiving environment for a hitter, Guerrero stepped forward in the second half of the season, hitting .306/.340/.396 in the warmer months of the summer. Strengths: High-end bat speed; very loose; hand/eye coordination is ridiculous; raw power is a 7; game power could play as a 6; good athlete who can handle either left or right field; arm has plus arm strength; HOF bloodlines. Weaknesses: Pitch-recognition skills are a concern; will expand and chase out of the zone; struggles with soft/spin; reactionary hitter who looks to rip regardless of sequence or setting; hit tool could pull the power down; not an up-the-middle defender. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Realistic Role: 4; fringe-major leaguer; Triple-A Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; very raw Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: With 30-homer potential, Guerrero is a pure upside play toward the end of your minor-league roster. But too many Guerrero types on your roster and you risk having a very dry pipeline. The Year Ahead: I’ve been very high on Guerrero in the past, and I remain enamored by his offensive skill set. The bat speed is very good, and the easy, loose swing is reminiscent of his famous uncle and physical doppelganger. But the pitch-recognition issues are the red flag here, the kind of issue that can spoil the offensive potential. This year will be a very good test for the young hitter, as he will see better off-speed offerings as he climbs the ladder, and if he can refine his approach and work himself into more favorable fastball counts, the bat might let the power play. If that happens, Guerrero has impact potential. Major league ETA: 2016 Notable Omission: LHP Danny Hultzen. Selected second overall in one of the deepest and most star-studded drafts in recent memory, Hultzen was knocking on the door of the majors when a shoulder injury derailed the southpaw's season. I wasn't bullish on Hultzen before the injury, and now with a labrum surgery on the resume, it's hard to justify ranking the 23-year-old lefty on this list until he returns to action (most likely in 2015) and proves to be healthy and productive. We can reevaluate his status at this time. Prospects on the Rise: 2. OF Wilton Martinez: With a projectable body and highly projectable offensive tools, Martinez looks the part of a prototypical corner bat. He’s still raw—and the numbers might not back up the hype for a while—but the bat speed and raw pop are there to develop into a legit middle-of-the-order prospect. 3. SS Ketel Marte: A 20-year-old Dominican with legit defensive skills at shortstop, Marte is a precocious talent who could end developing into a dual-threat player at the highest level. Power will never be a part of his game, but with plus speed and very good bat-to-ball skills, he has a chance to hit for average from a premium spot on the diamond. Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2014) 2. RHP Dominic Leone: Undersized righty with big stuff and a future in a big-league bullpen, Leone is a good bet to contribute to the major-league team in 2014. Working with a heavy mid-90s fastball, hard cutter and slider combo, Leone has the ability to miss barrels and force a lot of weak contact. 3. 1B Ji-Man Choi: The 22-year-old South Korean isn’t a big-name prospect--nor should he be considered a big-name prospect--but he does have some pop in his stick, and he could find his way into major-league action in 2014. The power could play to a 5, meaning he could probably hit 15-20 bombs over a full season, but it comes from a first base profile, so don’t expect anything more than a second-division player at best. Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/88 or later)
For a team that finished 71-91 and in fourth place in the American League West, the Mariners Top 10 prospects are surprisingly thin. Intriguing players like James Paxton, Victor Sanchez, and Edwin Diaz all merit discussion as potential big-league contributors, but when they are pushing the top five on a list of this nature, things can get a little dicey. Fortunately for Mariners fans, the reason the Top 10 is so thin is because the club promoted a host of talented players in the under-25 bracket to the big leagues for ample playing time in 2013. While Taijuan Walker is still the undisputed top player, and first-round pick D.J. Peterson still holds down the second slot, 2012 first rounder Mike Zunino, 2009 first rounder Nick Franklin, and the primary chip in the Michael Pineda trade, Jesus Montero, help bolster the top five when we expand the list. Zunino and Franklin both showed flashes of becoming quality major-league players on both sides of the ball, though neither projects as a star down the line. Montero’s bat has previously invoked visions of a star-level player, but mid-season knee surgery and a 50-game PED suspension as part of the Biogenesis fiasco have resulted in a tarnished star for the 23-year-old. He still has the potential to hit for both average and power, but he will have to prove he can handle first base or hit enough to merit at-bats as the everyday designated hitter. Middle infielder Brad Miller was yet another youngster to debut in Seattle this season and like Zunino and Franklin, Miller showed flashes of becoming a solid option at either shortstop or second base down the line. Miller began to settle in down the stretch and .274/.310/.431 with 15 extra-base hits in 48 games in August and September; hinting that he might be ready for an everyday job in 2014. Two other young names worth watching are right-handed starters Brandon Maurer and Erasmo Ramirez. Neither pitcher posted eye-popping numbers in 2013, but both have quality stuff and the potential to work as fourth starters over the long haul. The Mariners might be short on players with star-level projections coming through the ranks, but with Felix Hernandez and eventually Taijuan Walker fronting the rotation, and a handful of solid young players up the middle, the foundation is there to build a team that could begin to compete with the established powers of the AL West. The 2014 season will likely be one of continued growing pains for young players like Zunino, Franklin, Miller, and Montero, but the long-term potential exists for that group, along with Peterson, to form the core of an offense that can provide support to a talented one-two pitching punch and a solid middle and back of the rotation. –Mark Anderson A Parting Thought: Walker and Paxton, two of the top three prospects in the system, are major-league ready, leaving the remaining crop of talent on the farm looking thin. But looks can be deceiving, especially when you consider the ceilings of some of the impact arms in the lower minors, most notably, Edwin Diaz and Luiz Gohara. *** Show your #want for the Mariners here:
Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @ProfessorParks
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What is it with the mariners and position player prospects? Seems like the front office has done a great job of bringing in talent on the hitting side, but a higher percentage of them have busted than normal. Is it just bad luck or do they have weaknesses in player development?
I believe that the major players in the bust theory here, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak, were never good enough to begin with. This is just my opinion.
Ackley hit .280 as a minor leaguer who wasn't young for the minors. Smoak hit .251 with 13 Homers in 581 At-bats as a AAA player.
These players would not even have been called up, normally, if they weren't high number 1 picks.
Otherwise, I think Franklin, Miller, Zunino, ect are all coming along fine. The park is a major factor too.
As a non-Mariners fan, the one that puzzles me most is Ackley. I don't know where you got your stats from, as he hit .290/.397/.443 in the minors (.303/.421/.487 the year he was promoted as a 23 year old in AAA, which is not old for the league), and then had a .299 TAv in his rookie season before falling flat. Same profile as Gordon Beckham--highly touted college players, high draft picks, flew through the minors and performed well, solid rookie seasons, and then fell apart.
Ackley's rookie season was a mixed bag. He played 90 games, hitting .293/.368/.506 in his first 45 and .254/.330/.331 in his last 45.