July 17, 2013

Pitcher Profile

Speeding Up at the Break

by Harry Pavlidis

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Pitching ruled the All-Star break. The Futures Game featured a gaggle of power arms and a grand total of six runs. And that was twice the output of the main event, where the National League's best failed to score a run. Mariano Rivera made an emotional appearance. And, in the Home Run Derby, Ron Harper showed off a cutter of his own.

I have a confession to make: I think the Futures Game is the best part of the All-Star break.

Technically, it's part of the festivities and not the break, but I think you can lend me a few hours of Sunday afternoon for its inclusion. The opportunity to see so many top prospects is enough, but it also marks the first exposure to PITCHf/x for many of the arms on display.

Setting aside the possible awkwardness of coming out of the bullpen, pitching plays up in these types of games. Starters come out for an inning with a bit of adrenaline and give it their best shot before the buzz even burns off.

The upshot of this is folks get their first gander at their favorite prospect and walk away with an extra two miles per hour in their minds. On average, that is. If this year's All-Star Game is any indication, you won't see guys go over their top speeds.

Unless, that is, you count Max Scherzer, who hit 99.7 MPH at Citi Field, besting his 99.5 max fastball speed for the 2013 regular season. That difference is not meaningful—the PITCHf/x data isn't precise enough to make hay out of 0.2 mph on a single pitch—but it is a neat curiosity nonetheless.

Scherzer, who threw the opening frame for the AL, was the most pumped guy of the night on average, too. He averaged 96.6 mph on his fastballs and came into the night averaging 94.0 MPH for the season. Patrick Corbin was just as juiced, coming as close to his top speed as anyone else (within 0.7 MPH) and averaging 95.2, besting his season average of 92.7 with ease.

Matt Harvey threw one pitch over 100 in the All-Star Game (as close to his top speed as Corbin's best offering was) and averaged nearly two miles per hour above his season mark of 96.5 with a tidy 98.1.

All of the starting pitchers who worked in the All-Star Game threw harder than their averages, except Felix Hernandez. King Felix cruised along at his normal speed, averaging 94.2 compared to his season average of 94.6. Granted, that "average" is just one pitch, as he mostly threw two-seam fastballs, and I'm not including those. Call him King Outlier.

The relievers were just themselves. None of them got within 1 MPH of their 2013 max speed (most more than 3 MPH away), and only Craig Kimbrel and Joe Nathan had an average speed near 1 MPH above their norm. Steve Delabar was down 1.7 MPH, easily the most of any pitcher in the big-league game.

All of which takes us back to the Futures Game.

Yordano Ventura threw a single fastball, at 100.3 MPH. That’s the same tally as Harvey's, and we should believe that he legitimately has it in his arsenal. Eddie Butler hit 99 and averaged nearly 98. We can accept that top speed and think more along the lines of 96 for his average speed. Butler also threw an 88 MPH slider and a 90 MPH changeup, which were probably the nastiest pitches unfurled in the Futures Game.

Back to the big leaguers, and speaking of sliders, Matt Harvey spun a pair over 93 MPH, but that didn't beat his season best of 93.7. Yes, I'm talking about sliders.

Here are all the four-seam-fastball numbers for the 2013 Futures Game.

Harry Pavlidis is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @harrypav
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