April 3, 2008

Preseason Predictions

2008 Staff Picks, American League

by Baseball Prospectus

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Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American League. The National League predictions will follow, along with the staff picks in some fun miscellaneous categories.

Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our preseason MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.

The wild card team is marked with an asterisk, with first-place votes in parentheses.

Standings: AL East

Team                   Average
Boston Red Sox          1.2 (13)
New York Yankees        1.8*(4)
Tampa Bay Rays          3.4
Toronto Blue Jays       3.6
Baltimore Orioles       4.9

AL Central

Team                   Average
Detroit Tigers          1.5 (9)
Cleveland Indians       1.5 (8)
Chicago White Sox       3.7
Minnesota Twins         4.0
Kansas City Royals      4.2

AL West

Team                   Average
Los Angeles Angels      1.1 (16)
Seattle Mariners        2.5 (1)
Oakland Athletics       2.8
Texas Rangers           3.6

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 for a second-place vote, etc).

Next to each selection we've listed the total number of ballots followed by the total number of points, followed by the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

AL MVP

1. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers. 14, 118 (8)
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees. 14, 106 (4)
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians. 7, 44 (1)
4. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox. 6, 42 (2)
5. Manny Ramirez, LF, Red Sox. 4, 32 (2)
6. Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Angels. 2, 12
7. Carl Crawford, LF, Rays. 2, 10
8. Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox. 1, 5
9. Curtis Granderson, CF, Tigers. 1, 5

AL Cy Young

1. Justin Verlander, Tigers. 10, 34 (4)
2. Josh Beckett, Red Sox. 7, 23 (3)
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners. 7, 23 (3) 11
4. Felix Hernandez, Mariners. 3, 13 (2)
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians. 5, 13 (1)
6. Scott Kazmir, Rays. 5, 11 (1)
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays. 4, 8 (1)
8. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees. 2, 6
9. James Shields, Rays. 1, 5 (1)
10. Fausto Carmona, Indians. 1, 5 (1)
11. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees. 2, 4
12. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox. 1, 3
13. Rich Harden, Athletics. 1, 3
14. Javier Vazquez, White Sox. 1, 1
15. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays. 1,1

AL RotY

1. Evan Longoria, Rays. 12, 36 (4)
2. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees. 10, 34 (4)
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox. 8, 24 (3)
4. Daric Barton, A's. 8, 22 (1)
5. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox. 6, 20 (3)
6. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox. 4, 8 (1)
7. Ian Kennedy, Yankees. 1, 5 (1)
8. Wladimir Balentien, Mariners. 1, 3
9. Adam Miller, Indians. 1, 1

Individual Ballots:

• Kevin Goldstein
• Joe Sheehan
• Dan Fox
• Christina Kahrl
• Marc Normandin
• Jay Jaffe
• John Perrotto
• Nate Silver
• Jim Baker
• Ben Murphy
• Brad Wochomurka
• Derek Jacques
• David Laurila
• Bryan Smith
• William Burke
• Jason Paré
• Caleb Peiffer

Kevin Goldstein

Standings

AL East           AL Central          AL West
Red Sox           Tigers              Angels
Yankees*          Indians             Mariners
Rays              White Sox           Rangers
Blue Jays         Twins               A's
Orioles           Royals

AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Manny Ramirez

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Scott Kazmir

AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Evan Longoria
3. Daric Barton

Joe Sheehan

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Tigers              Angels
Yankees*         Indians             Rangers
Blue Jays        White Sox           Mariners
Rays             Royals              Athletics
Orioles          Twins

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Justin Verlander
3. Roy Halladay

AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Alexei Ramirez

Dan Fox

Standings

AL East           AL Central        AL West
Red Sox           Indians           Angels
Yankees           Tigers*           A's
Blue Jays         White Sox         Mariners
Rays              Royals            Rangers
Orioles           Twins

AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Miguel Cabrera

AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Justin Verlander
3. Erik Bedard

AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Daric Barton
3. Clay Buchholz

Christina Kahrl

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Tigers              Angels
Yankees*         Indians             Mariners
Blue Jays        Royals              A's
Rays             Twins               Rangers
Orioles          White Sox

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay

AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Daric Barton
3. Evan Longoria

Marc Normandin

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees*         Tigers              Mariners
Rays             Royals              A's
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Orioles          White Sox

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. David Ortiz
3. Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Erik Bedard

AL RotY 1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Clay Buchholz

Jay Jaffe

Standings

AL East           AL Central          AL West
Yankees           Indians             Angels
Red Sox           Tigers*             A's
Rays              White Sox           Mariners
Blue Jays         Royals              Rangers
Orioles           Twins

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young
1. James Shields
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Josh Beckett

AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Alexei Ramirez

John Perrotto

Standings

AL East             AL Central          AL West
Red Sox             Tigers              Angels
Yankees*            Indians             A's
Blue Jays           Royals              Rangers
Rays                Twins               Mariners
Orioles             White Sox

AL MVP
1. David Ortiz
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Vladimir Guerrero

AL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay
2. Josh Beckett
3. C.C. Sabathia

AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Joba Chamberlain

Nate Silver

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Yankees          Tigers              Angels
Red Sox          Indians*            A's
Rays             White Sox           Mariners
Orioles          Royals              Rangers
Blue Jays        Twins

AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Nick Swisher

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Rich Harden
3. Scott Kazmir

AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Daric Barton
3. Jacoby Ellsbury

Jim Baker

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Yankees          Tigers              Angels
Red Sox*         Indians             A's
Rays             White Sox           Mariners
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Orioles          Royals

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz

AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY
1. Daric Barton
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adam Miller

Ben Murphy

Standings

AL East         AL Central      AL West
Yankees         Indians         Angels
Red Sox*        Tigers          Mariners
Rays            White Sox       A's
Blue Jays       Twins           Rangers
Orioles         Royals

AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Erik Bedard
3. Scott Kazmir

AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Daric Barton
3. Jacoby Ellsbury

Brad Wochomurka

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Tigers              Angels
Yankees          Indians*            Mariners
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Rays             Twins               A's
Orioles          Royals

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Justin Verlander
3. Dustin McGowan

AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Evan Longoria
3. Joba Chamberlain

Derek Jacques

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Tigers              Angels
Yankees*         Indians             Mariners
Rays             White Sox           A's
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Orioles          Royals

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Carl Crawford

AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Josh Beckett
3. Roy Halladay

AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Evan Longoria

David Laurila

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Indians             Mariners
Yankees          Tigers*             Angels
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Rays             Royals              A's
Orioles          White Sox

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Curtis Granderson

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Erik Bedard
3. Chien-Ming Wang

AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Evan Longoria
3. Jacoby Ellsbury

Bryan Smith

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Tigers              Angels
Yankees*         Indians             A's
Rays             Twins               Mariners
Blue Jays        Royals              Rangers
Orioles          White Sox

AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Miguel Cabrera

AL Cy Young
1. Scott Kazmir
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY
1. Alexei Ramirez
2. Daric Barton
3. Evan Longoria

William Burke

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees*         White Sox           Mariners
Rays             Tigers              A's
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Orioles          Royals

AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Carl Crawford

AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Jonathan Papelbon
3. Javier Vazquez

AL RotY
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Wladimir Balentien
3. Daric Barton

Jason Paré

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees*         Tigers              Mariners
Rays             Twins               A's
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Orioles          Royals

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz

AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Justin Verlander
3. Josh Beckett

AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Evan Longoria

Caleb Peiffer

Standings

AL East          AL Central          AL West
Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees*         Tigers              A's
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Rays             Royals              Mariners
Orioles          White Sox

AL MVP
1. David Ortiz
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
1. Fausto Carmona
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. C.C. Sabathia

AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Alexei Ramirez