April 5, 2017

Dynasty Dynamics

Six (Slightly) Delayed Gratification Prospects

by Ben Carsley

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So it’s the first week of the season, and that promising rookie you snagged thinking he’d win a job in spring training is back in the minors. It happens to all of us. Veterans beat out rookies for jobs. Teams want to manipulate service clocks. Prospects look terrible in meaningless spring games. Injuries pop up. The reasons go on and on.

The good news? Not every prospect who fails to make his big-league club on Opening Day will be subject to a half-season or more of MiLB action. Here are six recently demoted top-101 guys I’m fairly confident you’ll be able to use in advance of the Super Two deadline in mid-June or, at the very least, near that benchmark. They’re sort of in order of how likely I think it is they reach the Majors soonish. Sort of. Enjoy.

Dan Vogelbach (1B/UT)—Mariners

You knew I was going to start with him, no? Most of us considered Vogelbach likely to break camp as the Mariners’ starting 1B or DH against right-handers, but they’ve opted for more Mitch Haniger / Jarrod Dyson (and less Nelson Cruz in the outfield) instead. As Craig Goldstein and others have pointed out many times, this is the problem with a prospect like Vogelbach; his lack of versatility can make it difficult for him to find a roster spot/playing time. He didn’t help himself much by hitting just .218/.313/.333 in spring training, either.

That being said, Vogelbach can hit—he has, at pretty much every stop, including in Triple-A this past season. The M's have two premium lefty bats in Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, but it gets pretty dicey after that; Leonys Martin ain’t scaring anyone. Bet on Vogelbach taking Guillermo Heredia roster spot before too long, and feel good about streaming him versus righties shortly thereafter.

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)—White Sox

For a while after Carlos Rodon went down with an injury, it looked like Lopez was going to break camp as the team’s No. 5 starter. He led the team in innings pitched this spring, striking out 14 and walking just five in 19 1/3 innings. For fantasy owners, this would be a dream come true; a potential high-strikeout starter saved from the bullpen and allowed to learn under Don Cooper, one of the best pitching coaches in the game.

Instead, the No. 5 starter spot is going to Dylan Covey, because baseball is eminently weird. Do you think Covey is going to last in the rotation, friends? I don’t. Lopez has the higher ceiling, already has proven he can miss MLB bats and already has conquered Double-A. Even if Rodon comes back fairly soon, Lopez has more talent than Miguel Gonzalez, plus Derek Holland is always hurt, and Jose Quintana is probably going to be traded. There will be starts available for Lopez this year, and I’d bet he finds some of them by mid-May.

Rowdy Tellez (1B)—Blue Jays

You didn’t think we were done with #largeadultson first baseman, did you? Tellez left his mark on the Jays in spring training, hitting .281/.378/.438. He did this as a 21/22-year-old with no experience above Double-A. There were whispers that Tellez might force his way onto the roster out of camp, but the Jays decided to send him to Triple-A and let him get a little more seasoning first.

How many Justin Smoak/Steve Pearce at-bats do you think it’s going to take for Toronto to rethink that decision? Tellez isn’t a gifted defender, sure, but if the Blue Jays decide they want to roll out an offense-heavy lineup, Tellez could hit his way into an MLB job pretty soon. Remember, this is a Blue Jays squad without Edwin Encarnacion or Melvin Upton; there are at-bats to be found here. Plus, Toronto fully expects to be in the playoff hunt and won’t worry so much about starting Tellez’s service clock. Smells like a May promotion to me.

Jeff Hoffman (RHP)—Rockies

I could get into some detailed analysis here, or I could just show you this:

Hoffman is a better prospect than Antonio Senzatela or Kyle Freeland. His Triple-A and MLB numbers from last season don’t look very good, but he’s still got the stuff to be a No. 3 starter, and a very good spot fantasy starter on the road. Hoffman frustrates because his results don’t match up with his talent, but after a few weeks of watching him tantalize in Triple-A while Senzatela and Freeland get batted around, the Rockies should change their tune. He might not be a big-impact guy in 2017, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on when he starts away from Coors.

Yohander Mendez (LHP)—Rangers

I could get into some detailed analysis here, or I could just show you this:

Not as dire as Colorado’s rotation, of course, but once you get to the back end, it’s really not much better. With Andrew Cashner on the DL (shocking) and Ross Detwiler being Ross Detwiler Tyson Ross, well, also on the DL, the Rangers are going to need a dependable fifth starter sooner rather than later. Enter Mendez, whom the Rangers felt comfortable enough with to give a cup of coffee to in the majors a season ago. He’s starting 2017 back in Double-A instead of Triple-A, which did give me some pause when I listed him here, but he still seems like the best bet of any young Rangers arm to cement himself in the rotation if given the chance. You’ll want to be judicious about when you use Mendez this season, but backed by a solid offense and good infield defense, he’ll be a streaming option when he arrives.

Roman Quinn (OF)—Phillies

The Phillies have a whole lot of needs, but they’re all set in center field with Odubel Herrera. That, plus a lack of Triple-A experience, explains why Quinn didn’t make the Phillies’ Opening Day roster. Still, Quinn received a nice 69-PA cup of coffee in the majors last season, and the Phillies are currently starting the sentient remains of Howie Kendrick in left field. When you start to consider that their other outfield options are Michael Saunders (always hurt), Aaron Altherr (very bad) and Daniel Nava (I won’t say anything mean), it’s easy to see how Quinn could find playing time sooner rather than later.

That will depend partially on his performance, of course. Quinn hit .287/.361/.441 in Double-A last season, but in a sample of just 322 PA. And if we’re going to throw shade at Saunders for his medical history, it’s worth noting that Quinn hasn’t been able to stay on the field much himself. But a hot six weeks in Triple-A, plus an injury to Saunders (or to Cesar Hernandez, who Kendrick could theoretically replace) could push Quinn to the majors and stealing bases for you by Memorial Day. I believe.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
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