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December 9, 2016

Transaction Analysis

Chicago's New 1-2 Punch

by Jared Wyllys

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IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
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Acquired OF-R Jorge Soler from Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Wade Davis. [12/6]

Soler is clearly a bet on potential. Though he appeared at times superfluous in Chicago, a quick scan of his 2015 NLDS numbers shows what might happen when he picks up a bat on a regular basis. Built like he could easily sign with the Chicago Bears to play linebacker, Soler has been hamstrung by his hamstr ... legs.

His infrequent use when he was healthy could also be culpable for the mostly unrealized potential. In 765 plate appearances spread across three seasons, Soler has slashed .258/.328/.434 with 27 home runs. Joining the Royals is a good scenario for Soler. He’ll be a fixture in the lineup as an outfielder and can slide to designated hitter on occasion to avoid some of the leg issues.

Kansas City may be tempted to lean on Soler primarily as a DH given his -3.5 FRAA in 2016 and -8.7 FRAA in 2015. He’s never going to earn his stripes as a defender, but being merely below average rather than awful would give Soler's bat a chance to make him an impact player, although it's far from a sure thing.

CHICAGO CUBS
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Acquired RHP Wade Davis from Kansas City Royals in exchange for OF-R Jorge Soler. [12/6]

Signed RHP Koji Uehara to a one-year, $4.5 million contract. [12/7]

And just like that, the Cubs have three of the last four pitchers to record the final out in a World Series.

Even with the departure of Aroldis Chapman, Chicago possessed a cadre of formidable bullpen holdovers. Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon had, after all, handled the duties of closing out games for much of 2016 before Chapman arrived, and the budding emergence of Carl Edwards Jr. was enough to rest comfortably going into 2017. But no team ever complains of a surfeit of talented relievers interfering with winning, I suppose.

With the forearm scare of 2016 assumed behind him, Davis is the easy presumptive closer in Chicago and perhaps even an upgrade over Chapman if he rediscovers his otherworldly 2014-2015 form. His high ground-ball rate will play very nicely with the sturdy Cubs infield behind him, and when that doesn’t do the job, his strikeout rate can take it from there. Davis' mid-90s cutter induces buckled knees and despondent, shaking heads from opposing hitters. If healthy, he's a late-inning superstar.

Uehara, who will turn 42 just as the 2017 season kicks off, has remained productive despite his advanced age with a 2.80 DRA and 12.1 K/9 for the Red Sox in 2016. He’s still allowing fewer than one runner per inning, albeit with a worrisome spike in home run rate and decreased durability. His velocity has dropped steadily, but his three pitches have continued to evade hitters’ bats. Especially that splitter, with a 22 percent whiff rate in 2016. Even his worst pitch in that regard, the now slow-poke fastball, escaped being hit just over 12 percent of the time.

Uehara isn’t expected to be called upon to save many games next season, and just where he’ll slot into a bullpen already rife with talent is unclear. For now, he can jockey for setup innings with Rondon, Strop, and Edwards. That group and Davis combine for plenty of health- and workload-related question marks, but if healthy it's potentially one of the best, deepest bullpens in baseball.

Jared Wyllys is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jared's other articles. You can contact Jared by clicking here

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