May 18, 2016

The Call-Up

Colin Moran

by Kit House and J.P. Breen

Printer-friendly

The Situation: The universal favorites to win the division discovered that the universe had other plans. After a slow start that is crippling postseason hopes, the Houston Astros are shaking up the roster by sending a small wave of players to the farm or DL, most notably Carlos Gomez. The newest deck chair on the Titanic is Colin Moran. The old deck chairs were Luis Valbuena and Marwin Gonzalez. Obviously the hot corner deck chairs were not a selling point in the travel brochures when this ship launched in April.

Background: A nephew of B.J. Surhoff, Moran was the ACC player of the year at UNC in 2013 before being selected sixth-overall by the Miami Marlins. After coming to the Astros in the Jarred Cosart deal, the Astros have kept him at Double-A Corpus Christi for the last two seasons and Triple-A Fresno for the beginning of 2016. Although his numbers this year have dropped off slightly, his good average/modest power production has otherwise been remarkably consistent across seasons and levels.

Scouting Report: The bat is the selling point. His walk and strikeout rates aren’t overly impressive, but his strike zone judgement is praised for contributing to hard contact rather than reaching base more often. Do you like doubles? Then you’ll probably like Moran. Do you like walks and homeruns? Well, that’s more Valbuena’s game, and look where that got us. Scouts don’t see growth potential here either, so if you marry Moran for his bat, don’t expect to change him. He also has a solid arm and glove, which sounds like a solid third baseman. So when I tell you that there are questions about his defensive future, you can probably guess that he has the range of a college radio station.

Immediate Big-League Future: The things Moran does well—control the strike zone and make hard contact—seem like relatively low-risk traits to carry to the majors. The consistency throughout his career bodes well too: if he’s had a bad season, it would have to date back to high school (I know, he’s starting slow this year, but that’s 100+ PAs). His competition is faltering at the right time, and there’s no one breathing down his neck on the depth chart. If he can replicate his minor league numbers, he could get significant playing time. However, this isn’t an impact player by any means. —Kit House

Fantasy Take: Moran certainly has appeal to the Astros and third base has been a cauldron of crap; however, the former sixth-overall pick doesn’t project to have much worth in fantasy leagues. His batting average has hovered around the .300 mark throughout his professional career. That leads one to believe that he’ll be an asset in that category. The problem is that he doesn’t steal bases, he doesn’t hit for power, and he doesn’t profile as a traditional run producer.

He’s a Martin-Prado-esque third baseman, a guy who has more real-life value than fantasy value. For perspective, Prado hit .288 with nine homers, 52 runs scored, 63 RBI and one stolen base in 2015. He was the 26th-ranked fantasy third baseman in ESPN leagues a year ago. That seems like a reasonable statistical expectation for Moran, which means that I’d be shocked if he were a top-20 fantasy third baseman. Throw $3-4 in FAAB at him if you’re struggling for corner infield production, but it’s important to remember that the best case scenario seems to be Yunel Escobar… who barely cracked the top-15 third baseman last season. It’s extremely unlikely that he’s the second coming of Matt Carpenter. —J.P. Breen

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
Click here to see J.P.'s other articles. You can contact J.P. by clicking here