February 29, 2016
Get to Know
Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2017 and Beyond
by Ben Carsley
There’s an argument to be made that you should only invest in like four or five players on this list, but let’s be real; you can’t help yourself. Seriously, most of these guys will fail and make you sad. But so long as pitching categories exist, starter prospects are a necessary evil.
Previous entries in this series:
Alex Reyes, Cardinals
With a devastating fastball/curveball combo and a developing changeup, Reyes has the pure stuff needed to challenge for strikeout crowns on a regular basis. The only catch? His command leaves plenty to be desired, and there’s a nonzero chance his WHIP holds him back from true SP1 status. Still, Reyes’ floor is an SP3 and the ceiling is a top-five starter overall, and that makes him the second-best fantasy SP prospect in the game. Reyes will miss the first 50 games of the 2016 season due to a suspension for marijuana, and that will likely prevent him from making an impact this year. What a great and reasonable rule.
Jose De Leon, Dodgers
De Leon mowed down well over a third of all batters faced between High-A and Double-A last season, taking the leap from interesting arm to upper-echelon fantasy pitching prospect. He was a bit homer-prone after leaving the Cal League (go figure), but De Leon’s changeup took a big step forward to the point where it’s probably his second-best offering now. Some fatigue at the end of the season emphasizes that De Leon needs more time before he’s ready to log 200-plus innings, but he could be a potential mid-rotation fantasy starter by 2017.
Dillon Tate, Rangers
I’m not really sure exactly why, but it feels like Tate isn’t getting his due as a legit potential no. 1 starter. Maybe it’s because he was overshadowed by the three shortstops taken before him in the draft. Maybe it’s because he joined an already deep farm system. Maybe it’s because Brady Aiken and Carson Fulmer felt like bigger names. But Tate is the real deal, and his two plus-plus pitches and electric arm action are poised to make Tate a huge asset in terms of strikeouts. The floor here is closer, but there’s no reason to think Tate can’t shine in a rotation if he’s healthy.
Anderson Espinoza, Red Sox
Among dynasty league arms, only Lucas Giolito and Reyes boast the same type of upside as Espinoza, who’s generated unreal reports from just about every corner of the prospect internet. His slight frame and distance from the majors make him a risky proposition, but Espinoza already boasts an elite fastball, repeats his delivery well and is lauded for his feel for pitching. The risk is extreme with any pitcher this far away, but the upside is a true rotation anchor, albeit one we probably won’t see for three-plus years.
Sean Newcomb, Braves
If you faced Newcomb in 2015, odds are he struck you out or walked you (ok, his combined strikeout and walk percentage was just north of 40 percent, but you get the point). The big lefty needs to improve his command and control if he’s going to live up to his potential, but if he does there’s legitimate no. 2 fantasy SP upside here. The Braves have no reason to start Newcomb’s clock next year, but he could be an impact strikeout arm in 2017 with better ERA and WHIP numbers to follow.
Carson Fulmer, White Sox
All pitchers are risky, but Fulmer carries a little more risk than most. His fastball/curveball combo renders him ready to miss MLB bats right now, but his inconsistent third pitch, his smaller size and his unorthodox delivery lead many to believe he’s a reliever. If he has to move to the ‘pen he’s definitely a closer candidate, but the White Sox have never shied away from letting pitchers with odd deliveries start. If it all breaks right he’s a strong no. 3 fantasy SP.
Grant Holmes, Dodgers
Holmes walked more batters in Great Lakes last season than you’d care to see, but his steady journey toward mid-rotation starter remains on track. Holmes might not excel in any one fantasy category, but he figures to contribute solidly in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, and if he remains in the Dodgers organization he’ll be in line for plenty of wins, too. He could push for a spot in the majors by late 2017.
Jeff Hoffman, Rockies
Jon Gray me once, shame on you. Jon Gray me twice, shame on me. Hoffman has the natural talent to be a fantasy SP2, but given the inconsistencies with his command and the fact that he’ll be pitching half his games at Coors, it’s hard to be overly optimistic. Maybe a Lucas Giolito or an Alex Reyes could make it work in Colorado, but as good as Hoffman is, his upside isn’t at that level.
Francis Martes, Astros
One of 2015’s more prominent pop-up prospects, Martes went from Marlins trade afterthought to top-100 dynasty league minor leaguer after mowing down batters across three levels. With the potential for three above average pitches and a fastball that can touch the upper 90s, Martes has the stuff needed to serve as a fantasy no. 3 starter, even in Houston. Bullpen whispers stem from mechanical inconsistencies and the fact that every reliever is really just a failed starter, but I like Martes’ odds of remaining in the rotation.
Franklyn Kilome, Phillies
Kilome could reasonably anchor a fantasy staff in 2020 or so. Or he could be a reliever. Or he could be an inconsistent back-end SP prospect. Or he could be out of baseball. You won’t find a player on this list who’s riskier for non-injury reasons, but you’ll also only find a handful with Kilome’s upside. The time to buy is now.
Hunter Harvey, Orioles
It’s hard to tell if Harvey avoiding the knife is a positive for dynasty league owners—TJ recovery isn’t a sure thing—or a negative: that type of forearm discomfort is often followed by TJ at one point or another. For now, we have the difficult task of trying to reconcile Harvey’s no. 2/3 fantasy SP upside with injury risk and with Baltimore’s poor track record of developing pitching. You’d be equally justified in buying low or avoiding Harvey altogether.
Brent Honeywell, Rays
Honeywell has a weird profile. That’s apparent from the moment you start researching him, his screwball and his unique personality. Oddities aside, dynasty leaguers should consider Honeywell a future potential no. 4 starter, someone who won’t excel in any one category but will actively contribute across the board. He’ll have a chance to conquer High-A and perhaps Double-A in 2016, and, like Taylor Guerrieri, he could position himself for a lot of MLB time in 2017.
Taylor Guerrieri, Rays
Guerrieri rebuilt much of his prospect value in 2015, logging 78 innings behind High-A and Double-A and dominating along the way. While he no longer looks the part of a top-of-the-rotation workhorse, Guerrieri can be a solid mid-rotation starter who can also pitch near the middle of a fantasy rotation. If he throws 150-or-so innings this year, he, like Brent Honeywell, will be well positioned to log a ton of MLB time in 2017.
Luis Ortiz, Rangers
Ortiz is a big boy with a big arm who put up big numbers as a 19-year-old in full-season ball last season, solidifying his jump from interesting former first-rounder to legit prospect. Durability is a concern here, as is Ortiz’s distance from the majors, but nothing ventured, nothing gained. If it all comes together Ortiz is a no. 3 fantasy SP. Root for Ortiz to log over 100 innings more than anything else this year.
Reynaldo Lopez, Nationals
Lopez’s ERA in High-A last year doesn’t look so hot, but if you look past that number you’ll see that 22-year-old struck out a higher percentage of batters than he did in 2014 while only upping his walk rate by 0.6 percentage points. Lopez lacks the explosive upside some claimed he had when he was a pop-up prospect, but he can certainly be a mid-rotation starter who misses enough bats to be interesting for our purposes. A solid 2016 should put him on the path to a 2017 rotation gig.
Amir Garrett, Reds
Garrett is a lefty who throws 97. His command needs to take a step forward and he could use a third weapon, but again, this is a lefty who throws 97. Add in that Garrett should start the year in Double-A, and we could be talking about a top-30 prospect at this time next season. I’m all in on his combination of upside and proximity.
Brady Aiken, Indians
If he comes all the way back from Tommy John, Aiken is a potential no. 2 fantasy starter. If he doesn’t recover, he could be useless for our purposes. How you want to balance that upside/risk portfolio is entirely up to you.
Michael Kopech, Red Sox
It’s not the 50-game suspension that prevents Kopech from being a top-101 dynasty prospect shoe-in so much as his unrefined mechanics and lack of consistent second plus pitch. That being said, Kopech’s fastball will earn him plenty of chances to prove that he can start and to prove that his 2015 numbers weren’t related to any substances. He’s got upside as a high-strikeout SP3.
Yadier Alvarez, Dodgers
Plenty of upside, plenty of risk. I’m all for gambling on guys like Alvarez instead of settling for replaceable back-end types. Just don’t look at his gaudy contract and think he’s in the super-elite tier of starting pitcher prospects. Alvarez is wildly inconsistent, could very well end up a reliever and is still a few years away. At the same time, he’s got SP 2/3 upside. Is this starting to sound familiar?
Kolby Allard, Braves
Allard is on the short list of players most likely to shoot up rankings this season. If he’s recovered well from his back injury (and every indication is that he has), Allard will use his deep repertoire of plus pitches to carve up the lower minors. If he ends up missing more time, maybe we’ll just copy/paste some of Max Fried’s old blurbs under Allard’s name.
Conner Greene, Blue Jays
From totally anonymous to top-125 prospect in one season, Greene raced through three levels in 2015, eventually winding up in Double-A New Hampshire. There’s still work to do here, specifically when it comes to refining his curveball, but odds are Greene will be available in leagues that down allow mid-season pickups. You’ll want to change that, even if his upside is more of the fantasy no. 4/5 starter variety than anything truly special.
Kohl Stewart, Twins
Raise your hand if you thought it possible for someone with Stewart’s stuff to record a 12.8 percent strikeout rate in the mid-minors. Put your hand down. You’re lying. There are two ways to look at Stewart’s stock right now; you can buy low on a guy who still has the stuff to pitch near the front of a rotation, or you can avoid a guy whose dynasty value is plummeting. Either decision is justifiable.
Spencer Adams, White Sox
What Adams lacks in crazy upside he compensates for in a well-rounded skillset and a fantasy-friendly ETA of 2017. He’ll never anchor your rotation but he can contribute near the back-end of one, and he’ll be a hell of a lot of fun to watch as he does so. He’s not a top-100 name, but he’d make my top 50.
Erick Fedde, Nationals
Sure, Fedde didn’t light it up in the low minors last season, but he showed flashes of his pre-TJ self and that’s really all that matters. The former first-rounder doesn’t have crazy upside but he’s got all the tools needed to be a no. 3/4 fantasy SP, and 2016 should reveal a good amount about the timetable Fedde is working on.
Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
Flaherty isn’t poised to miss a ton of bats, but he gets rave review for his feel for pitching and his control and he could be an impact contributor in ERA and WHIP. His upside is probably limited to that of a fantasy no. 5 starter, but with his repeatable delivery and command of three pitches, Flaherty has a high floor and is a relatively safe bet for someone who’s still two-plus seasons away.
Touki Toussaint, Braves
Let’s just keep hoping it eventually clicks for Toussaint. His no. 2 fantasy SP upside remains intact, but every season he struggles the probability of him reaching that ceiling is lessened. At least the floor is as a dominant reliever, and you have to like Atlanta’s odds of developing him more than Arizona’s.
Others: Max Fried, ATL; Devin Williams, MIL; Lucas Sims, ATL; Mitch Keller, PIT; Justus Sheffield, CLE; Keury Mella, CIN; Edwin Diaz, SEA; Antonio Senzatela, COL; Duane Underwood, CHC; Rob Kaminsky, CLE; Nick Travieso, CIN; Ian Clarkin, NYY; Adalberto Mejia, SF; Nick Kingham, PIT; Tyler Beede, SF; Tyler Kolek, MIA; Tyler Jay, MIN; Triston McKenzie, CLE; Luiz Gohara, SEA; Ashe Russell, KC; Phil Bickford, SF; Jarlin Garcia, MIA; Logan Allen, SD; Sean Reid-Foley, TOR; Kyle Freeland, COL; Marcos Molina, NYM; David Paulino, HOU; James Kaprielian, NYY; Dylan Cease, CHC; Nolan Watson, KC; Walker Buehler, LAD; Luke Weaver, STL
We Hardly Knew Ye (Fantasy Value)
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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14 comments have been left for this article. 
Julio Urias ? Or is he considered to be past his prospect status by 2017 ?
He was featured in names for 2016
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28538