February 16, 2016
Early ADP Analysis
Outfielders
by George Bissell
Welcome to the latest installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify trends in the data over time to determine what we can learn to improve our draft-day strategy going forward.
A Brief Position Eligibility Primer
The standard we use for our pre-season content at BP to determine position eligibility is 20 games played. Some league providers set their eligibility threshold at just 10 games played, so make sure to check with your specific league settings if there is any question as to where a specific player may quality in your league. Hitters are ultimately ranked at the position deemed to be more valuable fantasy-wise. Fantasy owners should remain cognizant of hitters who qualify at multiple positions, but instead of rankings them at every position for which they are eligible at, we have chosen to rank them only at the position with more fantasy value.
Why Care About ADP?
Fantasy owners should be advised against reading too much into the early data, which can be subject to small sample size outliers, since a majority of leagues haven’t drafted yet. However, it does give us a window to evaluate how the general public perceives specific player value and draft trends heading into 2016. Even if you’re competing in an auction, this data will give you a good idea of which studs a majority of fantasy owners are willing to shell out the extra dollar to purchase and which shortstops (there is one veteran that currently fits this mold) may slip through the cracks and make excellent value targets.
The early ADP data referenced for this entire series, housed at STATS.com, is from 2016 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which are comprised of 15 teams. Therefore, the average round data is reflective of that league size. It’s also worth pointing out that the data is also both relatively thin and updating in real time at the link above, so be sure to check back frequently for the latest updates. Without further delay, let’s dive into the crop of outfielders.
The First Round
Trout, Harper, Stanton, and McCutchen…Were you expecting anyone else?
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
The mammoth slugger was well on his way to justifying his lofty ADP (fourth overall) before a hamate fracture derailed his season in June. Despite the substantial injury risk, fantasy owners are still willing to take the first-round plunge on Stanton. Trust me if you spend five minutes mining MLB.com’s Statcast exit-velocity data, it’s hard to argue with their logic. There’s no doubting his elite power, however, the health issues are just as real, as evidenced by the fact he’s reached 600 plate appearances just twice in the last six years. Draft at your own risk in the first round.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
This ADP is puzzling for a few reasons. Perhaps the most significant being that McCutchen was the second player taken overall by ADP last season and now he’s almost fallen out of the first round entirely. Injuries contributed to a sluggish start in which he hit a paltry (by McCutchen standards) .225/.321/.370 with just four home runs and a pair of steals in 38 games (162 plate appearances) to open the season. However, he didn’t miss any time. From May 20th on, he looked like the old McCutchen again, hitting .313/.426/.526 with 19 home runs and nine stolen bases over his final 523 plate appearances.
He’s only 29 years old and remains one of the safest investments in fantasy baseball. Even if the days of 20-plus stolen bases are most likely behind him, he’s a virtual lock to hit .300 with 20 home runs and 90-plus runs scored and RBI. He may not possess the “upside” fantasy owners covet, but he has the highest floor of anyone not named Trout entering 2016. He’s a flat-out steal at his current ADP.
The Second Round
The Mookie madness is totally justifiable…
A.J. Pollock, D'backs
Fantasy owners are bullish on a repeat from the Notre Dame product and paying accordingly. There’s no compelling reason to think that Pollock isn’t capable of replicating last seasons breakout performance, because he mostly jusr built on an injury-shortened 2014 campaign. This is the space where we remind you that Pollock was one of just seven hitters to steal 30-plus bases last season. The lofty stolen base total should insulate fantasy owners against any potential backslide in power, which is the greater concern given a 50 percent groundball rate and the fact that 11 of his homers last season were classified as “just enough” or “lucky” by ESPN’s home-run tracker. Still, this is what a potential first-round fantasy selection looks like in today’s fantasy landscape.
Mookie Betts, Red Sox
According to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, since 1901, only nine hitters age 22 or younger have equaled what Betts did in his first full-season, last year, hitting .291 with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases. In the last decade, Mike Trout (twice!) and Melvin Upton (wow, really) are the only two hitters to replicate those power, speed and average statistics at such a young age. If that’s not impressive, check out PECOTA’s 2016 projection.
|
PECOTA
|
PA
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
AVG
|
|
2016
|
654
|
92
|
18
|
71
|
25
|
.297
|
We’re nearly 1,000 plate appearances into his career and the only negative thing we can say about Betts is that he’s apparently terrible at driving golf carts. Just like Pollock, this is what a potential first round fantasy selection looks like in today’s fantasy landscape.
The Early Rounds
There is a lot to like in this range from a value standpoint…Elite speed (Blackmon), elite power (Martinez, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cespedes) and a slew of veteran outfielders (Braun, Upton, Cain, Gomez and Jones) who contribute across the board…
Carlos Gomez, Astros
I’ve written extensively already this offseason already about the myriad of injuries he dealt with last year that effectively destroyed his season. A top-10 selection (eighth overall) a year ago, Gomez prior to last year hit .284 with at least 24 home runs and 34 steals in back-to-back seasons. He’s still only 30 years old and is hitting in the heart of an outstanding Astros lineup in one of the friendliest home parks for right-handed power. The rebound potential here is off the charts.
Lorenzo Cain, Royals
After finishing as a top-10 hitter, earning $32 in standard mixed leagues last season, Cain’s ADP has soared from outside the top 200 overall (211th) a year ago to just outside the top-50 selections. It’s still not high enough, which is why he represents one of the best values in 2016 drafts. He turns 30 in April, but how many other hitters have possess the power/speed combination to hit .300 with 15 home runs and 25 steals? In 2015, the answer was three. There might not be a better fantasy value out there right now than Cain.
Corey Dickerson, Rays
This is the most intriguing group of outfielders given the disparity between their respective ceilings and floors in relation to their ADP’s. I’ll be writing about Hamilton and Dickerson over the next two weeks with our outfield preview, so I won’t spoil those pieces. However, I will note that I think both are excellent values at their current ADPs, especially in leagues that allow for daily lineup changes. Specifically Dickerson, whose ADP will take a hit with the move out of Colorado (and it should), but he still crushes right-handed pitching and I can name more than a few hitter-friendly venues in the AL East. Let’s pump the brakes on the hate fantasy owners.
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
A hamstring injury destroyed his statistics and limited him to just 311 lackluster plate appearances last season. Assuming he’s fully recovered from the injury and his hamstrings don’t become an issue again this spring, there’s huge bounce-back potential with Puig, who was a top-20 selection in fantasy drafts last season. At 25years old, it’s way too early to give up on him. If you’re looking for a reason to believe, PECOTA should provide that with it uber-bullish 2016 Puig projection:
|
PECOTA
|
PA
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
AVG
|
|
2016
|
456
|
58
|
17
|
61
|
9
|
.283
|
The power is impressive and if he can get to 600 plate appearances, something he did in 2014, there’s no reason to think he can’t get to 20 home runs with double-digit steals and an average over .280. If he does that, he’s going to significantly outperform his current ADP.
Michael Brantley, Indians
According to the latest reports, he’s expected to be out until May due to offseason shoulder surgery, which has caused his ADP to plummet. Now going outside the top 100 picks, he becomes someone to watch on draft day in case your league mates allow him to slip too far. Personally, I would rather have four-plus months of Brantley than six months of Kole Calhoun. Just saying.
The Middle Rounds
If you’re looking for value, this is the right spot…Except for Hanley…
David Peralta, D'backs
Here’s a fun nugget for your next dinner party. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Peralta’s average stolen base attempt time from first to second (3.88 seconds) was the third-slowest total of anyone with at least five attempts last season. Yet somehow, he still managed to steal nine bases in 13 attempts. He also hit an incredible .312/.371/.522 with 10 triples and 17 home runs in just 517 plate appearances, but that stolen-base stat is way more fun to lead with.
Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox
We knew losing shortstop eligibility would be a crushing blow to his fantasy value, but if he’s losing outfield eligibility as well in a year, the end could be closer than we think for Ramirez. He’s now 32 years old and hit just .249 with 19 home runs last year. In the last six years, he’s hit 20 or more home runs just once and the speed that once made him such a dynamic dual-threat has pretty much evaporated too. On the positive side, playing first base should in theory keep him healthy (something he was not last year) but there’s also the potential he’s so bad defensively that the Red Sox have to bench him. It’s not a situation I want any part of as a fantasy owner.
Randal Grichuk, Cardinals
The earliest darling of the Statcast exit-velocity hipster crowd, Grichuk’s average exit velocity (94.5 mph) trailed only Stanton, Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Sano as he crushed 17 homers in just 350 plate appearances. That’s the good news. He also struck out 31 percent of the time and is going to have to compete for playing time in a crowded Cardinals outfield. Still, that power is real.
Michael Conforto, Mets
He’s 22 years old and hit five of his nine home runs to the opposite field in his first exposure to major-league pitching last season. I leave you with this image, courtesy of the invaluable Baseball Savant:
The Late Rounds
If you draft Souza, all of the 2015 projection systems will love your team…
Matt Holliday, Cardinals
There’s no way his ADP should be this low. He’s 36 years old and coming off a pair of quad injuries that limited him to just 277 plate appearances, but it was the first time in a decade that he didn’t reach the 500-plate-appearance plateau. When he was on the field, he was outstanding hitting .279/.394/.410 (.299TAv). He’s not even remotely close to being done, and assuming he’s healthy this spring, there’s no way he should be going in the 17th round of fantasy drafts. It’s absurd.
The Leftovers
Put your hands in the air if you’re wearing an Avisail Garcia shirsey…
Domingo Santana, Brewers
The trade of Khris Davis to Oakland virtually guarantees that the 23-year-old will receive everyday playing time in Milwaukee. He’s never going to hit for a high average, but he posted a .299 TAv along with six home runs and a pair of steals in 145 plate appearances last season. Late round lottery tickets don’t get any more exciting than this.
Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Nope. Just nope.
The Undrafted Crop
Potentially the best Nomar since Garciaparra…Or as use Bostonian’s called him “No-Mah”…
Nomar Mazara, Rangers
The most obvious name to target in this group of hitters, the soon-to-be 21-year-old was recently ranked the number four overall fantasy prospect in the game by BP’s managing editor Bret Sayre. He could have a major impact for the Rangers this season, but his major-league arrival is up in the air at this point.
Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners
The veteran outfielder would have come close to leading the majors in slugging percentage (.620) if he had enough at-bats to qualify, but that’s pretty much been the story with Gutierrez who missed the entire 2014 season and a majority of the 2015 campaign due to ankylosing spondylitis, a debilitating arthritic condition of the spine. The health concerns aren’t going away for the 33-year-old, but if the power production when he’s on the field is his new baseline, he’s worth a speculative investment in extremely deep formats.
George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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3 comments have been left for this article. 
Is there a way to get that data from STATS in a CSV or Excel file?
You can copy and paste an HTML table into a spreadsheet and get good results, at least with Google Docs and LibreOffice (localc). I'd expect Excel to have kept up with the competition.
Yeah, that does work. My main grumble is that the data at the link only lists 50 players per page, so that'd be alot of clicking. But I guess that's how I'll approach it.