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January 13, 2016 The -Only League LandscapeNational League Catchers
As we did last year, we will begin the 2016 installment of this preseason series by looking at the senior circuit’s backstops, hoping to provide insight at the position from a fantasy perspective for those who participate in standard NL-only 4x4 and 5x5 scoring formats. Looking back, when we were preparing for upcoming drafts last year, the NL-only catching pool looked very deep, and the position scarcity we had seen in previous years was no longer driving up the bids for the upper-tier NL catchers. We began to see these top-tier backstops go for prices closer to market level, and that held true to form throughout last year’s drafts. Looking ahead to this year, there is much more uncertainly regarding the upper-tier in the NL catching realm, as injuries, underperformance, and position battles raise some doubt about the members of this group. Heading into 2015, the previous three years had produced multiple productive catcher options for NL-only fantasy owners to choose from. During those three seasons there had been 12 $20 fantasy-earning seasons posted by NL catchers in NL-only leagues, and six more $15 seasons. In 2014 alone, 12 of the 15 regular NL catchers cracked double digits in home runs, and 10 surpassed $10 in total fantasy earnings. As such, with the minimal relative drop-off in value between the elite catchers to the next 10 NL options, in 2015 drafts there were only two catchers with an average salary of $20 or more (derived from the prices in CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars, as prepared by Mike Gianella): Buster Posey ($27) and Jonathan Lucroy ($20). The next eight NL-only catchers in terms of salary went for an average salary of $14, further illustrating the depth at the position. However, the way the 2015 season played out, the top 10 NL-only catchers in terms of fantasy earnings were scattered with names that were hovering near the bottom of pre-season draft sheets. Let’s take a retrospective look and review the fantasy earnings for the top 10 NL-only catchers in terms of salary. Please note the salary is the average salary of that player in the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars expert leagues, as prepared by our own Mike Gianella:
Ouch. In these standard mono formats where two catchers are required to complete your starting lineup, getting a negative ROI when you invest bids like these on your no. 1 catcher slot can put you at a disadvantage. Losing a couple of dollars on an investment for your top catcher is certainly not a major impediment to your chances of winning your league, but when you invest these type of auction dollars to buy stats for the likes of Lucroy and Mesoraco, and they put up a net loss of double digits, well, that can put any fantasy owner in a challenging hole to overcome. Obviously injuries played a major role in the diminished earnings for those eight catchers above in the red, as only two of those players appeared in more than 115 games (Molina and Ramos), but that is always a risk at a position as grueling as big-league catcher. There are clearly different thoughts on how to value catchers when preparing your draft sheets and auction values, but I have always taken the conservative approach with these players, and typically ratchet my values down a couple of ticks based on the injury factor involved with the position. In the past four seasons only Buster Posey has appeared in at least 115 games annually among NL backstops—and he is the only catcher I will not adjust my raw bid on based on the position because he has averaged 32 games at first base over the past four years. If I am unable to grab Posey, I do not adjust my values mid-draft and will trust my sheets, even if I end up dollaring out my two catching slots. It’s a strategy that has worked for me in the past and I have been able to celebrate multiple titles using that philosophy. Taking those auction dollars and allocating them in other places rather than overspending for catcher stats had been a fantasy staple of mine for years, and I am still comfortable with that approach. With that said, let’s review the top 10 NL-only catchers of 2015 in terms of fantasy earnings:
This is why I am reluctant to pay for catchers. Posey and Norris were the only two catchers from the previous chart to crack the top eight of NL-only 5x5 fantasy earning backstops in 2015—certainly not the results you would have anticipated based on the expectations heading into the year. If you ended up letting the upper-tier catchers go, and were “stuck” with the likes of Cervelli, Pierzynski, Hundley, and Castillo, you grabbed impressive ROIs. Schwarber and Realmuto out-earned the majority of regular NL catchers even though they began the season in the minors. In our circles, this was a disappointing season for senior-circuit catchers—and it could foreshadow similar results in 2016. Once tabbed as an elite catching option after posting three consecutive $20 seasons from 2011-2013 in standard NL-only 5x5 formats, Molina has registered back-to-back disappointing seasons the past two years with $11 and $10 in earnings, respectively. Heading into his age-33 season with 1,436 games played behind the dish in his 12-year career, the productivity of this seven-time All-Star appears to be in decline. His OBP and SLG have taken a nosedive the past two seasons, rendering Molina more of a mid-level catching option in 2016 in these deep formats. While I do like the upside of Mesoraco and d’Arnaud, both are coming off injury-plagued campaigns again, and neither has shown the ability to stay on the field; this needs to be taken into account when adjusting your bids. Ramos, Grandal, Castillo, Montero, and Norris are just two-category players in standard 5x5 scoring formats, and each can be a drain on your AVG. As for the rookie backstops, both Schwarber and Realmuto have upside—Schwarber from a power perspective and Realmuto from the standpoint that he can provide positive stats across five categories—but expect both to be overvalued as the two shiny new toys at the position. As for the biggest surprises from last year (Hundley, Cervelli, and Pierzynski), paying for repeat performances seems like a risky proposition. Pierzynski’s age (39) is certainly a factor along with the fact that he will split time with newly acquired Tyler Flowers. The small sample of fantasy productivity from Cervelli and Hundley, who is coming off a career year that saw a 50-point jump in his career BABIP, makes them both speculative plays. All that said, investing heavily in any NL catcher not named Posey (and arguably Lucroy, who seems like a solid bounce-back candidate) appears to be a gamble I personally would not recommend. Cleary, the NL catching pool is not nearly as deep with solid and reliable options to slot in as a CA1 heading into 2016 drafts, which should make the bidding and draft position interesting in NL-only formats. Based on what we saw last year, sitting back and looking to grab value later in drafts could be the wise decision. As we did last year in this article, we will take a look at some deeper NL catching plays who could make for interesting targets from a value perspective. If you read this article last year, I profiled Cervelli, Hundley, Pierzynski, and Castillo in this section as potential value plays, which hopefully helped you in your respective drafts and auctions. Each player’s 2015 “Earnings” are based on Mike Gianella’s Rotisserie-style, 4x4 and 5x5 formulas, provided in his Retrospective Player Valuation article from November 10th. Tyler Flowers – Braves The former 33rd-round pick by Atlanta back in 2005 is not only being reunited with the team that originally drafted him, but is also revisiting a familiar spot as Pierzynski’s platoon partner, a role he played with the White Sox in 2011 and 2012. Flowers is what he is, a catcher with power but terrible contact rates that have made him nothing more than a part-time backstop. However, he is 10 years younger than his platoon partner and is a slightly better defensive catcher, so he will probably see the bulk of the playing time in Atlanta this season. The AVG will be an issue, but he has smacked 36 home runs the past three seasons in a limited role, which will give him value in NL-only formats. He did earn $10 in AL-Only standard formats in 2014 with his 15 long flies, so tuck that information away from your fellow NL-only-focused owners. Cameron Rupp - Phillies The Phillies have appeared to move on from Carlos Ruiz as their everyday catcher, and with the rebuilding effort in Philadelphia, Rupp looks to be the main man behind the dish in the City of Brotherly Love. Rupp is no doubt an AVG killer (his .245 batting average over five seasons in the minor leagues makes some cringe) but the former third-round pick threw out 39 percent of runners trying to steal the past two seasons, which is 10 percentage points higher than league average, a boon to his playing time with a young staff. Add into the equation his moderate power potential—posting double-digit totals in home runs in the minors in 2012 and 2013 and nine more last year with the Phillies in just 270 at-bats—and Rupp is a solid cheap power play in the ballpark he will call home this year. Christian Bethancourt – Padres This former top prospect began the 2015 season as the everyday catcher for the Braves, but struggled mightily over the first two months of the season. After posting a .198/.221/.287 triple slash on June 15th, Bethancourt was shipped to Triple-A and Pierzynski assumed the role of Atlanta’s everyday backstop. Heralded for his defense behind the plate in the minors, he also showed some pop on the farm, hitting 12 home runs in Double-A in 2013 and eight in Triple-A in 2014, with respectable averages of .277 and .283. respectively. After being sent to down to Triple-A in June, the 24-year-old responded with a .327/.359/.480 slash line in 218 PA, with four home runs and five stolen bases. The additional element that Bethancourt can bring is speed, as he stole 60 bases in his minor-league career, including 25 steals the last three years. Traded to the Padres this offseason, he will most likely split time with Derek Norris, and his defense will keep him in the lineup (he threw out 45 percent of would-be base stealers this past season). While Bethancourt is nothing more than a cheap option in two-catcher formats, his SB potential makes him intriguing, as 8-10 steals is not out of the question. Brayan Peña – Reds A second-catcher staple of mine in deep -only formats since his days with the Royals, Peña now heads to St. Louis after spending the past two years with the Reds. The 34-year-old will never wow you with his stats, but he hits for a decent AVG, and has amassed over 100 games played and 365 PA the past two seasons. Peña is a solid insurance policy for Molina and can even play some 1B for the Cardinals if needed, as he played 53 games at first for the Reds in 2014. The switch-hitting backstop has averaged $5 a year in NL-only 5x5 leagues the past three years, and is not a terrible end game option to plug into that CA2 hole. Kevin Plawecki – Mets I have been pretty bullish on Plawecki the past two years, so much so that I drafted him in my expert dynasty league two years ago, and in the CBS NL-only and my NL home league this year. Ranked as our no. 5 prospect in the Mets organization heading into 2015, to my delight Plawecki was called up to the Mets in April when d’Arnaud was placed on the DL with a broken finger. Unfortunately, the former first-round pick back in 2012 took his lumps at the plate and uncharacteristically struggled with his contact rates. After posting a 125-to-97 K:BB ratio covering 1,192 PA in his minor-league career, Plawecki lost that plate discipline in his first go-around with the Mets as he put up a 60-to-17 K:BB in his 258 PA in the Big Apple this season. Despite the disappointing year for Plawecki, he has hit at every level in the minors—.295/.372/.439 triple slash line over 287 games heading into 2015—and should see his share of playing time if d’Arnaud suffers an injury (which has happened in five of the last six seasons). Plawecki will be entering his age-25 season in 2016, and should be on your radar as a nice buy-low candidate as your second catcher in deep NL-only formats. Andrew Susac - Giants Susac is a talented catching prospect who has been blocked by Posey the last couple of year, and understandably so. However, this former second-round pick has been able to work his way into the lineup on days when Posey sheds the tools of ignorance in favor of a first-baseman’s mitt. Susac has a little pop (41 home runs in 365 professional games) and gets on base, posting a career .364 OBP in the minors. He is a great handcuff to Posey, and a solid $1 end game flier to serve as a CA2 in these deep formats.
Keith Cromer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @keithcromer18
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Will there be an AL-only version of this article?