November 1, 2015

Playoff Prospectus

PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 5 Preview

by R.J. Anderson

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After a heartbreaking 5-3 defeat in Game Four, the Mets will try to stave off elimination in Game Five while the Royals will attempt to bring the title back with them to Kansas City. Whatever the result, this will be the final game played at Citi Field this year.

Kansas City Royals (Edinson Volquez) at New York Mets (Matt Harvey) 8:00 p.m. Eastern

PECOTA odds of winning: 26% Royals, 74% Mets

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability: Royals catcher Salvador Perez took a foul ball off the chest protector and appeared a little banged up. He stayed in the game anyway, and he's certain to start Game Five. That's because nothing short of an amputation would keep him out of the lineup—and even then, he'd probably talk Ned Yost into a pinch-hit assignment.

Both teams rode their bullpens hard in Game Four. The Mets used Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, and Jeurys Familia each for a second consecutive game. During the regular season, you could probably count those fellers out from Game Five. Now? There's no reason to save bullets for winter ball. Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese should be available too, because from here on out, the Mets have to approach every game with an all-hands-on-deck mindset.

As for the Royals, Wade Davis made his first appearance since Game One, recording the final six outs. Yost was able to avoid using Kelvin Herrera, so if he absolutely, positively doesn't want to use Davis in Game Five—and there's no reason to think that's the case—then Herrera is his freshest late-inning arm.

Outlook: A rematch from Game One, in which both starters altered their pitch selection from their postseason norm. Neither had overwhelming success with the new approach, so the question worth asking is whether they'll revert to their old ways, or if they'll try again with an eye on better results.

Harvey's big alteration was an increased reliance upon his changeup—seemingly as a way to neutralize the Royals' left-handed hitters. He threw his changeup 20 times in 80 pitches, according to Brooks Baseball; for reference, he threw 21 changeups in his first two postseason starts combined. Harvey had topped the 20-changeup mark just once prior this season, back in a mid-June outing against the Blue Jays—in other words, this wasn't your typical outing.

Volquez's tweak also involved more changeups. In his first three postseason starts, he'd thrown more than 50 percent sinkers, including an outings where he approached the three-quarters mark. Volquez threw sinkers less than half the time in Game One—a decision that, when combined with his decreased curveball usage, allowed him to throw nearly 33 percent changeups; his regular-season high, for comparison's sake, was 36 percent, set against the Blue Jays. (Think the Mets and Royals shared scouting reports on the Blue Jays?)

Because Monday is the final travel day of the postseason, one subplot worth watching is how Terry Collins and Ned Yost manage their bullpens. Each side has every incentive to push their top relievers out there for a third consecutive day. There's also the matter of whether Collins would pull Harvey in the early going if the Mets open up a substantial lead—thereby setting him up to pitch out of the bullpen later in the series. Obviously playing for a game that may not occur is risky—especially when one of the pitchers in question recently had a public spat about inning limits—but this is the World Series and you do whatever you can to win.

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @r_j_anderson
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