May 28, 2015

Five to Watch

South Atlantic League Hitters

by Greg Wellemeyer

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If you read my first couple of articles here, you might think I’m a guy who spends way too much poring over the leaderboards and trying to spot trends using Pitchf/x data. And you’d be right. Having grown up in a city with a Carolina League team, I’m also someone who enjoys minor-league baseball immensely. Like many of you, I play in all manner of dynasty leagues and enjoy prospecting as much or more than I enjoy digging through major-league data. Today I’m going to get back to my roots and cover a few youngsters.

I still live close to a couple of Carolina League clubs, but I have better access to the South Atlantic League and consider it my home league of sorts. With 14 teams in the league and a relatively concentrated geography, you can see prospects in many organizations without too much trouble. The stadiums are small, some of them are explosive for offense if that’s your thing, and several are in underrated cities that are great destinations. In typical minor league fashion, the Sally has teams named after freshwater crustaceans (Crawdads), a deceased NASCAR driver (Intimidators), and an entire industry (Power).With the BlueClaws, GreenJackets, and RiverDogs also on board, no other league can match its contempt for the space bar.

Here comes the part where I give you the standard caveat about not relying on the stat line alone to evaluate minor league players. We have the best prospect team around and you should always rely primarily on their evaluations. With that out of the way, here are five prospects who should be garnering increased dynasty league attention based on their early-season performances.

Carlos Tocci - OF - Lakewood BlueClaws (Phillies)

The slight Tocci is back for his third go-round in Lakewood, which may seem like a knock on his profile until you consider that he still hasn’t celebrated his 20^th birthday. The results are markedly different this time around, as Tocci has ridden a .391 BABIP to a .345/.403/.437 triple-slash. Despite the obvious unsustainability of that line, there are reasons for optimism. As David Lee covered in his recent profile, Tocci added strength this offseason and the results are showing. He only has one home run to date but is almost halfway to his 2014 extra base hit total. Another interesting development is the vast improvement in his base-stealing efficiency. Tocci has always possessed plus speed but has been caught more than he’s been successful each of the past two seasons. His 11 stolen bases in 2015 are already a career high, and he’s been thrown out only once. Tocci profiles as a plus defender in center, and that alone can carry him up the ladder. A promotion to High-A should be imminent and Tocci will attempt to continue to avoid the bouts of over-aggressiveness that have been a part of his early career.

Jomar Reyes - 3B - Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles)

Reyes was the youngest position player to receive an Opening Day assignment in a full season league this year. The huge Dominican third baseman hit .285/.333/.425 in the Gulf Coast League last season and his .292/.355/.435 line so far is an improvement across the board. In a recent Eyewitness Account, Tucker Blair put a double-plus on his raw power and gave his future power a 60 grade. It will eventually play in games thanks to excellent barrel control for a man his size and an approach that is mature for his age, both of which are evidenced in his stat line. Despite a plus arm at the hot corner, the rest of his defensive profile will likely result in a move across the diamond. Regardless of where he lands, he looks like a future middle-of-the-order slugger. The manner in which Reyes has handled the huge jump from the GCL to the Sally at 18 years old portends a solid future and the fact that his in-game power production isn’t yet fully realized means you may have a buying window.

Ryan O’Hearn - 1B - Lexington Legends (Royals)

It’s tough to get fired up about a clear first base prospect but O’Hearn is making dynasty owners take note. After being drafted in the 8th round last summer, O’Hearn won MVP of the Pioneer League with a .361/.444/.590 performance that included 13 home runs. He’s picked up right where he left off, smashing 12 long balls in his first 178 plate appearances of the year to lead all of Class-A. O’Hearn only hit 13 home runs in his three year career at Sam Houston State, so it’s fair to question what is behind this outburst. Lexington’s park plays favorably for home runs but it’s not an out and out bandbox like Asheville or Hickory. This is not really a case of an older, polished college bat pounding younger competition either, as O’Hearn was the eighth youngest college position player in Baseball America’s top 500 pre-draft rankings and is roughly league average age. He can hit the ball to all fields with authority and though the strikeouts have ticked up relative to what he did in the Pioneer League, you can live with a 24.7 percent strikeout rate when the tradeoff is an .883 OPS. Needless to say, if O’Hearn keeps swatting the ball out of the yard, he’ll ascend the Royals organizational ranking despite his position at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Wes Rogers – OF – Asheville Tourists (Rockies)

Rogers was the Rockies’ fourth round draft pick in 2014 after playing two junior college seasons at Spartanburg Methodist in his home state of South Carolina. He signed with Colorado instead of transferring to UNC-Wilmington and held his own in the Pioneer League, hitting .283/.362/.425 and tying for eighth in the league in steals despite playing in only 30 of 76 regular season games. His 30 steals through Asheville’s first 45 games trails only Yankees shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo’s 33 for most in the minor leagues. I’ve heard a Dexter Fowler comp more than once and there’s some team/position/race laziness to it, but there’s some truth there, too. Fowler was a rangy, athletic prospect with a solid approach, some pop, and plus speed. He played his age-20 season in Asheville and finished with a .296/.373/.462 triple slash, including eight home runs and 43 steals. Besides the stolen base total, the 21-year-old Rogers lags a little behind that line, currently sitting at .250/.346/.369 with a pair of bombs. With some continued adjustment to the level of competition, a little batted ball luck and more help from his home park, the stats and Rogers’ stock should climb as the summer heats up.

Wuilmer Becerra - OF - Savannah Sand Gnats (Mets)

With Travis d'Arnaud and Thor Syndergaard already looking like core pieces, the Mets don't need anything from Becerra to make the R.A. Dickey trade look like a pilfering but the 20-year-old is trying to pile on. Becerra has shown signs of harnessing his considerable tools in the early stages of 2015 and his five home runs are particularly impressive. Only one of the five has come in Savannah's pitcher-friendly environs but he also hit one each in Rome and Charleston, both of which heavily favor pitchers. For a toolsy player who hit .300/.351/.469 in the Appalachian League last season, Becerra received curiously little attention heading in to 2015. Though he continues to trim his strikeout rate, his aggressive approach may not allow his raw power to play up against more advanced pitching. Nevertheless, now is your chance to get in on the ground floor on a player who has easy thump and can steal a handful of bases. The risk is still significant, but so is the potential reward.

Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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