<< Previous Article

Minor League Update: G... (05/07)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: A... (04/30)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/12)

Next Article >>
Release Points: Tyler ... (05/07)

May 7, 2015

Eyewitness Accounts

May 7, 2015

by BP Prospect Staff

Printer-friendly

Luis Reyes
Eduardo Rodriguez
Alex Jackson
Brandon Nimmo
Michael Conforto

Luis Reyes


	Born: 09/26/1994 (Age: 20)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 175

Build: Wiry frame with long legs; high waist; room for additional growth even with the naturally wiry frame.

Mechanics: three-quarters arm slot; long arm action with big rotation; above-average arm speed; high leg kick; hips and shoulders can get out of sync; mild drive with a slightly inverted land; rushes and loses tempo often; causes him to fly open when he overthrows; overall easy mechanics; 1.31 - 1.41 delivery times

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	05/04/2015
Affiliate	Hagerstown Suns (Low-A, Nationals)
Dates Seen	4/29/15
OFP/Risk	45/High
Realistic	40; Middle Relief/Long Relief
MLB ETA	2018
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	50	55	89-92	94	Below-average command; T93 3x; T94 1x; mild plane; mild boring action; worked north and south; was not missing barrels but was able to consistently keep the ball out of the air; refinements in command and/or stamina built up for higher sustained velocity could help boost this offering.
CB	40	50	73-77	79	Below-average command; 11/5 offering; inconsistent arm speed replication; currently lacks consistent depth and spin; will hang in the zone at times; other times it lacks spin altogether; best pitch shows moderate depth and spin around 76-77 velo band; refinements in release points and arm speed replication will make this an average offering.
CH	20	40	86-87	87	Poor command; mild feel; inconsistent arm speed replication; displayed mild fade a few times; release points and refinement in arm speed could help boost offering slightly.

Reyes is a Dominican pitcher with two potential average offerings. The body has projection, and Reyes shows feel for all three pitches. The mechanics are clean and the delivery is easy. While the development path is long for him, there is still a chance he can stick as a backend starting option if he can show further refinement in the changeup. If not, Reyes will be able to play his fastball/curveball combo into a middle relief role.

Eduardo Rodriguez


	Born: 04/07/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Left
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 210

Plus arm speed; smooth, deliberate three-quarters delivery with medium pace and high leg lift; full extension; deceptive front side; pitches with plus plane and angle; rushes all aspects of delivery and often lands on stiff front leg from stretch; command falls a full grade+ from stretch.

Evaluator	Al Skorupa
Report Date	05/04/2015
Affiliate	Pawtucket Red Sox (AAA, Red Sox)
Dates Seen	4/18/2015; 5/2/2015
OFP/Risk	60/Low
Realistic	60; No. 3 Starting Pitcher
MLB ETA	Mid 2015
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	55	65	92-97	97	Sinks and runs; sometimes turns over; double-plus velo with plus command and plus movement from windup; throws fastball inside and out to both right-handed & left-handed hitters; misses bats down and can also elevate for strikeouts; fastball rides up from stretch.
Slider	45	55	84-88		1-7 downer; flashes sharp tilt; medium depth; tight spin; throws to both sides of plate with average command; doesn't always stay on top and pitch slurves out.
Changeup	50	55	86-89		Sink and some fade; at times too firm and turns over; plus command and good feel.

Left-handed mid-rotation starter with a 65 fastball and plus command but no real plus secondary offering. Fastball his most effective swing-and-miss pitch. Problems repeating his delivery from the stretch.

Alex Jackson


	Born: 12/25/1995 (Age: 19)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 215
	Primary Position: RF
	Secondary Position: LF

Strong, square shoulders, strong arms and muscular forearms; thick lower half, big thighs, strong base; there’s potential for bad weight here, so he’ll have to keep up the conditioning.

Mechanics: Sets up with a slightly open stance with his hands away from his body and around ear level.

Evaluator	Mauricio Rubio Jr.
Report Date	04/30/2015
Dates Seen	04/15/2015, 04/17/2015
Affiliate	Clinton LumberKings (Low-A, Mariners)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2018	High	55	Realistic – 50 Major League Regular	No

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	45	Has pre-swing noise before he loads up, gets quiet when it’s time to swing; plus bat speed; leaks with the front side, swing can get out of sequence; swing plane is power driven at present, which will hurt the contact rate; selectively aggressive, gets good extension at the plate; can’t get hands around on fastball on the inner half at present, but has the wrist strength and bat speed to eventually catch up to velo in.
Power	60	Plus-plus raw power, will play down to plus due to contact limiting in-game utility; leveraged swing, creates good back spin on the ball; power is pull oriented at present, but natural strength and plus bat speed lend hope that opposite field power will come.
Baserunning/Speed	40	Deliberate runner, runs like he’s angry at the ground; won’t be a factor on the basepaths, has enough speed for a corner outfield spot; will lose speed as he fills out.
Glove	45	Bad first step, below-average reads in the field, range will play to fringe average.
Arm	60	Plus arm strength, ball has good carry and it skips hard when he two hops it in; at present the accuracy is below average.

Alex Jackson is struggling with an aggressive assignment to the Midwest league. In my viewing, Jackson was cheating to get to the fastball in which left him vulnerable to soft stuff away. While that was concerning, I also saw Jackson sting some balls down and in and put good backspin on the ball on a few fly outs. Jackson is a very raw product at present and his skill set is more promise than material, but I think the promise is there. Jackson has the bat speed to figure out how to cover the inner half and he has a dream power-hitter’s frame. The work in the field isn’t anything to write home about, but he can get to acceptable defense for a right fielder if the arm accuracy improves and he starts reading the ball better off the bat.

OFP – 55 Solid Average Regular

Brandon Nimmo


	Born: 03/27/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 3"	Weight: 205
	Primary Position: LF
	Secondary Position: RF

Wide framed, athletic build. Broad shoulders; strong upper body.

Evaluator	Al Skorupa
Report Date	05/04/2015
Dates Seen	4/23/15; 4/26/15
Affiliate	Binghamton Mets (AA, Mets)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
Mid 2016	Medium	50	45: Fringe-average/Platoon corner outfielder	No

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	45	Average bat speed; simple swing mechanics; tiny stride; stiff lead and sometimes loopy bat path; good idea of the strike zone, but passive approach at the plate; takes pitches all the way in hitter’s counts; no real plan of attack; rarely looking to do damage; poor at-bats against same-handed pitching.
Power	55	55 raw; best power to pull; some uppercut in his swing; game power plays down due to passive approach.
Baserunning/Speed	40	Stocky actions running; longer strides; better underway; not a big threat on the basepaths; steals on baseball instincts more than speed; average baserunner; will go first to third.
Glove	55	Fringe-average reads and routes; corner actions, mobility and acceleration.
Arm	50	Average arm strength; accurate.

Fringe-average/Platoon corner outfielder. No plus/carry tool. Overly passive approach mitigates effectiveness of his tools. Doesn't hit same-handed pitching.

Michael Conforto


	Born: 03/01/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 211
	Primary Position: LF
	Secondary Position:

Thick build, maxed out physically; good weight presently, but body could become an issue as he ages; carries weight well, very strong.

Evaluator	Jeff Moore
Report Date	05/06/2015
Dates Seen	4/27/15, 5/4/15, spring training
Affiliate	St. Lucie Mets (High-A, Mets)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2016	Low	55	50, major-league regular	No

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	55	Quiet stance; above-average bat speed, slight natural upper cut; attacks the ball with authority, looks to drive the ball; run-producer mentality; generally patient approach at the plate, but aggressive in run-producing situations, adjusts approach to situation, shows a plan and feel for game; looks comfortable against left-handed pitching, pulls off slightly against lefties, leaving the outer half exposed, but shouldn't have a major platoon split.
Power	55	Strong frame and good bat speed make for above-average power potential; swing path leads to good loft on ball and carry, generates back spin; will drive ball to all fields, power potential not limited to pull side; looks to drive the ball, especially in hitter's counts.
Baserunning/Speed	40	More athletic than his body type would suggest, gets to top speed efficiently but overall straight-line speed is limited. 4.3 to first base.
Glove	50	Range limited because of speed, but gets good jumps and covers ground well; tracks the ball naturally; goes to the ground well.
Arm	40	Left-field only arm, quick release but below-average strength.

Conforto is an advanced bat who is already close to being a finished product. He understands his role in a lineup and looks to drive the ball. Doing so doesn't require him to over-swing, using his strength and frame to remain under control and manipulate the barrel within the strike zone. He can get beat inside with premium velocity, but it's not a significant issue. He also has some comfort issues with left-handed pitching, but no more than are typical for most left-handed hitters and not enough to force a platoon.

The player doesn't offer much value with his glove or legs, putting the pressure on his bat to carry the load. He's not a bad defender, but the lack of foot speed and arm strength limit him to left field, where he will be adequate at present, but below-average as he ages. Conforto doesn't have any elite tools, but the combination of his strength and hitting talent make for a potential everyday bat in a corner outfield position.

Related Content: Prospects, Scouting, Minor Leagues

10 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

Probably Handsome

(76413)

I hate seeing grades like that on Jackson's hit tool. I'm not saying that it's not accurate, but I thought that it might be in the 55-60 range.

Anyway, thanks. These reports are my favorite part about my BP subscription.

May 07, 2015 06:10 AM

link

rating: 3

Mauricio Rubio

BP staff

(74727)

Absolutely. I've heard it both ways. We had him at 5 in the write ups, I've heard the case for 55/60 which I obviously don't agree with and I've heard 40 which I think is too harsh. Thanks for reading!

May 07, 2015 09:16 AM

link

jfranco77

(64578)

Do Michael Conforto and Michael Cuddyer seem fairly similar in name and skills to anyone else?

May 07, 2015 09:32 AM

link

rating: 1

hyprvypr

(11082)

One of the reasons I always renew each year is the continuing top-flight prospect coverage.

Jackson's current trajectory seems like near bust territory. All teams need solid outfielders and 25 homer bats, but with a top 5 overall pick, you feel like you need a star at least.

May 07, 2015 14:02 PM

link

rating: 0

HutchHutch

(77725)

Based on 100 PAs as a 19yo in A ball? That's the lowest grade I've seen on his hit tool, but it also notes his plus bat speed. He needs to make some adjustments, for sure. You know who else put up a similar line at a similar level at a similar age? Mike Trout.

May 11, 2015 13:00 PM

link

rating: 0

thsaladboy

(1506)

That is one of the worst write-ups I've ever seen of Brandon Nimmo. It makes him sound like an utter non-prospect. BP named him their number 69 prospect of 2015, so someone on staff must like him more than Al Skorupa does.

May 07, 2015 14:42 PM

link

rating: -1

Tucker Blair

BP staff

(80223)

A 50 OFP is a major league regular. Far from a non-prospect. It's fun to pump prospects, but I do think it is also very important to conceptualize what a major-league player is. Al isn't as high on Nimmo as others on our team, but he also is not alone. As with all prospect lists, and development in general, reports/rankings are a snapshot and are always dynamic.

May 07, 2015 15:10 PM

link

thsaladboy

(1506)

His grades are those of a prospect (though a 45 realistic role playing at Double-A kinda seems like a bit of a non-prospect to me. Major league platoon guys often don't feature on prospect lists when they're coming up, after all) but the way Al writes about him he sure seem a whole lot more negative. I wasn't expecting an account calling Nimmo a future star or anything--he clearly isn't one. But this report doesn't read like one for a major league regular either. It reads like one for a washout.

May 07, 2015 16:56 PM

link

rating: -2

Al Skorupa

BP staff

(39403)

"Worst" eh? I guess we'll see if I'm right in a few years. If you have any subjective questions about his tools I'd be happy to answer them and discuss my evaluation further. If you want to make a case for him and why I'm wrong I'll be happy to listen and respond to that too. I will remind you, as Tucker noted, I didn't N/P the guy. I wrote him up as a fringe average regular. These are not the tools of a non prospect, they're just not the tools of an above average player in my humble opinion.

I will say I argued against placing Nimmo highly over the offseason when we did our prospect lists. This isnt me whacking him because he had a bad series. I saw him multiple times in 2013 and in spring training last couple years and he's never done much of anything for me. Didn't like the reads and routes in cf. Runs 4.3-4.4 two years ago and then again when I saw him last week. Hes pretty thickly built and he's not gonna gain a step as he ages here.

I'm sure others do like him more on our staff and elsewhere. If it wasn't clear already, I really could give two ***** about how other people rank a prospect. There's a lot of groupthink and bad evaluation both around the Internet and even in MLB Scouting Departments. There's also a ton of writers and scouts I respect the hell out of - and guess what? I'm gonna disagree with them plenty too. I see a lot of baseball and a lot of different levels of baseball. I won't be right all the time and I certainly dont think i know everything. I learn something new every time I go watch a game. Nonetheless, this is what i saw so thats what i wrote. The minors aren't full of impact players.

May 07, 2015 17:21 PM

link

thsaladboy

(1506)

"Worst" didn't mean I thought your evaluation was a poorly made one (I have no idea if it is or not--I'm not a scout, so all I have to go on is what various different evaluators say about a guy). I meant it's the most negative one I've seen written about him since 2013 when he was struggling with a hand injury in High-A. I have no idea if he'll turn out well or not--better prospects than him have washed out. I never said he was an impact player or that the minors were full of them and I don't have a particular fondness for the guy either. I was just surprised by how negative the evaluation was.

May 08, 2015 08:23 AM

link

rating: 1

You must be a Premium subscriber or have a Fantasy subscription to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!

<< Previous Article

Minor League Update: G... (05/07)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: A... (04/30)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/12)

Next Article >>
Release Points: Tyler ... (05/07)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D... Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma... Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...	MORE FROM MAY 7, 2015 Notes from the Field: The Will to #Want Release Points: Tyler Clippard's Split's the... What You Need to Know: Thrice Harper! Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May... Transaction Analysis: A Chance In Counsell Fantasy Freestyle: Changed Expectations The BP Wayback Machine: The Concussion Discu...
MORE BY BP PROSPECT STAFF 2015-05-18 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 18, 2015 2015-05-14 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 14, 2015 2015-05-11 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 11, 2015 2015-05-07 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 7, 2015 2015-05-04 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 4, 2015 2015-04-30 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 30, 2015 2015-04-27 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 27, 2015 More...	MORE EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS 2015-05-21 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 21, 2015 2015-05-14 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 14, 2015 2015-05-12 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 12, 2015 2015-05-07 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 7, 2015 2015-04-30 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 30, 2015 2015-04-24 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 24, 2015 2015-04-23 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 23, 2015 More...