March 26, 2015
Fantasy Auction Values
Third Edition, 2015
The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.
This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.
Below are all of the bid adjustments for AL or NL-only that are two dollars or more in one direction or the other for players worth $10 or more in mono formats. Mixed league bids are not listed below but have also been adjusted accordingly.
Before I dive in, a quick note on Hector Olivera. He was taken as a reserve pick in Tout Wars NL this weekend before he signed with the Dodgers. It’s possible he’ll be up this year, but he will need at least 4-6 weeks to get into playing shape, and even then there are no guarantees he won’t spend a good chunk of time in the minors. That being said, he probably should have had some kind of bid limit in this update and doesn’t. If you’re bidding in a non-keeper league this weekend, Olivera should probably go for $6-10 depending upon your risk tolerance. I’ll have a more definitive price on him in the next update.
Victor Martinez (current $23, previous $21)
It is starting to look like Martinez may be ready Opening Day. Expectations should still be tempered based on the nature of Martinez’s injury and his age but Martinez was a big time earner last year.
Yoenis Cespedes (current $21, previous $23)
Leonys Martin (current $21, previous $19)
Chris Carter (current $21, previous $19)
Mookie Betts (current $19, previous $17)
Rusney Castillo (current $14, previous $17)
Shane Victorino (current $3, previous $5)
The expert prices for Betts are kind of ridiculous (he went for $24 in Tout Wars) but he is having a terrific spring and seems to have a significant leg up for a starting job in Boston. The lineup is going to help his runs scored potential significantly. Castillo could be sent to the minors, but despite the assertion that Victorino is going to start, Shane hasn’t looked good this spring.
Avisail Garcia (current $14, previous $17)
Brandon Moss (current $17, previous $15)
Moss appears healthy. I’m not moving him up more due to future injury risk, though.
Kennys Vargas (current $11, previous $13)
Brad Miller (current $11, previous $9)
Koji Uehara (current $15, previous $18)
Uehara is finally giving me a little pause, given his most recent injury issues, his age, and his lousy performance down the stretch last year. I should probably have pushed another couple of dollars toward Edward Mujica in this update, and will consider doing so in the next update.
Alex Cobb (current $15, previous $17)
Drew Smyly (current $12, previous $14)
Injuries drive the prices down for a couple of Rays pitchers. Maybe I’m not being cautious enough with Cobb, but the potential if he can pitch for 4-5 months is high.
Brett Cecil (current $11, previous $9)
It’s official: Cecil has been named the closer and it looks like Aaron Sanchez has a shot to crack the rotation. Cecil still is a bottom-tier closer, but saves are saves.
Dallas Keuchel (current $12, previous $14)
Danny Duffy (current $11, previous $14)
I like both of these pitchers, but the conservative bidding in both LABR and Tout tell me that I can get either or both of these guys at $10 or $11 quite easily.
Anthony Rendon (current $24, previous $29)
Am I overreacting? Perhaps. But Rendon’s injury is typically something that needs rest/recovery, and while he has had some of that, I am still not convinced he is going to not miss some time at some point this season.
Daniel Murphy (current $18, previous $20)
Murphy may be ready for Opening Day, but speed is part of his game to a degree and his already dwindling stolen base totals may be further at risk.
Wilin Rosario (current $12, previous $17)
Nick Hundley (current $9, previous $5)
I am far from convinced that the Rockies are going to stick with their plan of using Rosario as their third catcher for a long period of time, but a course correction was in order nevertheless. If Hundley is the starter even for the first third of the season, his value should get bumped up accordingly.
Yasmany Tomas (current $12, previous $16)
Chris Owings (current $12, previous $14)
David Peralta (current $8, previous $12)
Jake Lamb (current $6, previous $2)
What a mess they’re making out in Arizona. I hate the obligatory “ha ha, that’s a bad organization” pile on that so many baseball watchers love to engage in, but this is a bad situation for fantasy all the way around. We can pretend we know how all of this is going to shake out, but at this point your guess is as good as mine. I should push a few dollars toward Nick Ahmed, but I’ll believe that he is the starter when I see it. If you’re drafting this weekend, put a $4-6 bid on him and move these four players and Aaron Hill down another dollar apiece.
Kris Bryant (current $16, previous $14)
Javier Baez (current $10, previous $12)
The Cubs are saying that Baez makes the Opening Day roster, but even if this is the case he isn’t inspiring confidence at the moment. Bryant is, and while I’m giving him a raise this bid is still a cop out. To give this some perspective to those saying that Bryant can be a $30 player this year, if Bryant matches what Giancarlo Stanton did in 2010 over the course of 140 games, Bryant will be a $21 player. This seems like a ceiling and not a floor, particularly right out of the gate for a rookie with such a high strikeout profile. I think I could be wrong to some degree, but I don’t think I’ll be wrong to the extent that I will be missing out on a potential $30 earner.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (current $10, previous $15)
There was no structural damage detected in Ryu’s shoulder, but there doesn’t seem to be a timetable for his return. This new bid assumes a mid-May return for Ryu, which I would call a worst case scenario except, again, we don’t really have enough information to start playing the best case/worst case game just yet.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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