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March 21, 2014
The Simulated Seasons Where the Astros Make the Playoffs
“If the Astros win 70 there might be a celestial event that has never been seen before.” —BP reader Old Bopper, here.
This week, we released our playoff odds, which are based on 50,000 simulations of the 2014 season. In 0.4 percent of them, the Astros win the AL West, and in 1.3 percent the Astros make the playoffs. This is a very small number, which is fitting, because it is practically impossible to imagine the Astros winning 80 games, let alone 90 (if not quite so impossible as Old Bopper suggests to imagine 70).
And yet, this number means that there actually exists a simulation of this baseball season where the Astros actually won more games than any other AL West team. They didn’t win 0.4 percent of the division in that simulation; they won the whole thing. Dozens of such simulations, in fact, exist, where this thing happened. And realize one thing: Yes, in all of them, the Astros overperform their projection, often dramatically. But most often crazy, weird freaking things happen to make it possible. The Astros, in their 600-plus playoff timelines, averaged 86 wins. Last year it took 92 wins to make the playoffs in the American League last year. In some playoff timelines, the Astros won considerably fewer than 86 games. So to make the playoffs, they had to steal a bunch of wins from other teams' projections; and they had to do it in an environment where 86 (or 85, or 82, and so on) wins were enough to make the postseason. These are insane seasons.
So let’s look at them.
We should be cautious. If coins create parallel timelines, and rock-paper-scissors is a nine-sided coin, then what is a baseball simulation? Naught but a 2,430-sided coin. We are opening up timelines here. Some of them are very, very dark. Wear goggles; bring weapons; pack a snack.
The Most Utopian Timeline: Simulation 33913
Excerpt from game story the day after the Astros clinch: “...Sabathia threw a two-hit shutout, Mark Teixeira slugged a home run, and Derek Jeter scored three times, as all three Yankees acquired by Houston in New York’s August salary dump contributed to the…”
The Entropiest Timeline: Simulation 18224
Excerpt from game story the day after the Astros clinch: “... but there was no celebration on the field. That’s because the Astros weren’t sure they had clinched a postseason spot until the team’s Decision Sciences department ran a series of complex mathematical models on the team’s new supercomputer and confirmed that, indeed, they were in. ‘I don’t know,’ GM Jeff Luhnow said. ‘They say we’re in, but I’ll wait and see whether we’re actually playing a game next Thursday before I get happy.’”
The AL Westiest Timeline: Simulation 49319
Excerpt from game story the day after the Astros clinch: “‘...I try not to pay much attention to the stats. I’m just happy the team won,” Peacock said after the shutout. ‘But, yeah, it feels pretty cool to be a 30-game winner.’”
The AL Worstiest Timeline: Simulation 33881
Excerpt from game story the day after the Astros clinch: “‘Wooooooooo!’ Castro cheered as his teammates doused him with beer. ‘Everybody sucks except us!’”
The Paritiest Timeline: Simulation 3540
Excerpt from game story the day after Astros clinch: “...but when baseball made the rash decision to play every game of the season on ice, it put all teams on equal footing—or, rather, equal lack of footing.”
The Cruelest Timeline: Simulation 17511
Excerpt from game story the day after Astros clinch: “...but Luhnow seemed conflicted as, in exchange for one extra playoff game, his team had sacrificed the chance to get the first pick in the 2015 draft.”
The Most Overall WTF Timeline, Third Place: Simulation 19317
The Most Overall WTF Timeline, Second Place: Simulation 5117
The Most Overall WTF Timeline: Simulation 36845
Excerpt from game story the day after Astros clinch: “...but the Astros’ excitement was muted. ‘We’re still suspicious of the whole thing,’ manager Bo Porter said, repeatedly looking up warily at the rafters to make sure there were no buckets of pig blood above him.”
The Darkest Timeline: Simulation 14761
But at what cost? We’re all anarchists when we’re young, until we start to realize that we do need certain things to be structured: we need doctors who have been licensed, educated at state-subsidized universities, and provided medicine developed by government grants and screened by government agencies before being shipped in a timely manner via government-built roads and provided to senior citizens who are cared for, in an extraordinary act of collective altruism, by the government of us all. When the social structures begin to break down, it is exciting, it feels mischievous, and it tickles the rebellious youth in us all, but ultimately it leads to darkness and fear, to the timeline where we are all on our own. We can’t do it on our own. We need order, structure, and sensibleness.
And so there’s something about a timeline where the Astros, a team we know, for an absolute fact, to be worse than at least one of the Rays, Angels, and Red Sox, not only get to play in the playoffs instead of those three teams, but get to do it despite winning only 80 games—in other words, despite being demonstrably bad at baseball—and where this terrible team might even win the World Series, that leads humanity to no happy terminus. This is the timeline where your teenage daughter applies to the university she worked so hard to get into, but instead of getting accepted she gets arrested for treason. This is the timeline where your wife stabs you because you said something in your sleep, where your mother uses your birth certificate to steal your identity, where you beg to be arrested because jail is the only place you ever feel safe. We don’t want this timeline.
God and math willing, none of us will live long enough to see such a thing.
Excerpt from the game story the day after the Astros clinch: “...in a loud voice to him who was sitting on the cloud, ‘Take your sickle and reap, because the time to reap has come, for the harvest of the earth is ripe.’ So he who was seated on the cloud swung his sickle over the earth, and the earth was harvested.”
The Astros made the playoffs 637 times. Here's how many wins it took to get there.
93: 10 times
92: Four times
91: 12 times
90: 22 times
89: 43 times
88: 52 times
87: 71 times
86: 96 times
85: 125 times
84: 73 times
83: 80 times
82: 33 times
81: 11 times
Thanks to Rob McQuown and Dan Brooks for assistance and encouragement.
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @SamMillerBB
37 comments have been left for this article.
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Can we get some stats for these seasons? Please, maybe?
Mar 21, 2014 05:41 AM
Astros win the world series !!!
Mar 21, 2014 06:49 AM
PECOTA also confirmed that in the darkest timeline, the Astros all sport pencil-thin mustaches and pointy goatees.
Mar 21, 2014 07:19 AM
I must have missed it somewhere, but what simulator did you use?
Mar 21, 2014 08:08 AM
Just wanted to say that this was an exceedingly enjoyable read, and that I totally believed the first newspaper article was real, like something from Baseball Mogul.
Mar 21, 2014 08:08 AM
Ah, Baseball Mogul. Loved that game until I got into OOTP but played it early on for a few years. According to the developer, I was the first person to beat Casey Stengel which they thought was impossible.
Mar 21, 2014 08:55 AM
Are those numbers next to the number of projected wins "winning percentage" in the tables? Because 99 wins out of 162 games does not a .430 winning percentage make.
Mar 21, 2014 08:34 AM
It'd be nice to know how the various timelines did what they did. What had to break right for the Astros to win 99 games, etc. When the Astros broke 90 wins, were there any players common to those timelines that always exceeded expectations?
Mar 21, 2014 08:56 AM
Important question: Did Javier Baez hit 74 HR in any season?
Mar 21, 2014 08:59 AM
As noted above in the comments, is it a teamwide simulation or does it account for individual players? Would LOVE to see the statistics from that 99 win season, or engage in some BP roundtable speculation of what that might have looked like.
Mar 21, 2014 09:59 AM
Teamwide sim, so no stats for individuals. Let your imagination run wild.
Mar 21, 2014 12:18 PM
Secretly, we've switched L.J. Hoes with Barry Bonds. Let's see if anyone notices the difference.
Mar 21, 2014 18:11 PM
What was the lowest number of wins in the Astros sim run?
Mar 21, 2014 11:16 AM
Seriously would like to know this... they average 94 losses in the 50,000 scenarios, but do they approach the 1899 Spiders, the 1962 Mets, or the 2003 Tigers?
Mar 22, 2014 18:32 PM
This is so awesome I am beside myself and I am totally stealing this for the 2014 NFL season.
Mar 21, 2014 12:59 PM
Since I was ridiculed for suggesting that the sun would rise in the west if the Astros win 70 games, and I understand a bell curve as well as most, it would be fascinated to see projection of the fewest wins the Astros might have in 2014. Perhaps they can challenge the 1899 Cleveland Spiders record of 20-134. From what I saw in Florida it seems possible.
Mar 21, 2014 19:24 PM
I don't think you are being ridiculed. Just that your expectations of their (lack of) success in 2014 are widely shared by others, and your turn of phrase was memorable and quotable.
Mar 22, 2014 08:05 AM
When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, when the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves, when your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then the Astros will win 70 games, and not before.
Mar 22, 2014 09:38 AM
I watched the Houston broadcast of the Astros/Cards game yesterday, and the Houston play-by-play guys said that "St.Louis has a lot of question marks on their pitching staff." The end.
Mar 23, 2014 08:54 AM
Watched the same game ....if the statement was made it likely was in the context of 5th starter battle and bullpen alignment.
Mar 23, 2014 15:25 PM
This is coming from a team that is starting Scott Feldman on Opening Day. That is worth a good laugh.
Mar 24, 2014 17:36 PM
"We need order, structure, and sensibleness."
Mar 23, 2014 18:57 PM
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Fun that you ran this the same day you ran the Pre-Season Predictions. The predictions seem so ... predictable. This is an antidote to that; a nifty reminder that things can be utterly unpredictable.