Dynasty League Positional Rankings

Top 120 Outfielders

by Bret Sayre

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The Primer:
Because dynasty league rankings are relatively league-dependent, I set up parameters for ranking the players below (and the ones who will follow at other positions). The list here presupposes a 16-team standard dynasty format, where there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever and owners have minor league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2014 ETA’s down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or -only formats.

Outfield is a monster of a position to rank. Unfortunately, it’s no longer a monster position as far as depth at the major-league level. You have the superstars at the top, but as you may be noticing as you do mock and real drafts this pre-season, if you wait too long to fill those last two outfield spots, you’re going to be at more of a disadvantage than five years ago. And the reason why makes sense—with major league teams focusing more on defense, fewer first basemen are parading around the grass aimlessly. The minor leagues, however, could see a good wave of talent coming up at the position over the next two seasons—led by two of the top three fantasy prospects in the minors. The next wave is less impressive, but only by comparison. And the influx of young talent at the major league level, even in the form of players who haven’t quite lived up to expectations yet, is heartening to say the least. And as a disclaimer, you won’t see players who are outfield eligible and have been ranked at other positions on this list. This is purely fresh blood. Dig in.

And now, your top 120 outfielders in dynasty formats:

1) Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

YOU’RE THE BEST! AROUND! NOTHING’S GONNA EVER KEEP YOU DOWN. YOU’RE THE BEST! AROUND! NOTHING’S GONNA EVER KEEP YOU DOWN.

2) Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
3) Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
4) Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
5) Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
6) Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

If you own one of these guys, you’re happy. But if you own Harper, you’re double happy. Stanton may have had some injuries recently, but he’s still not turning 25 until after the 2014 season is over and he’s going to hit 50 homers one of these years. Braun may not steal as many bases from here on out, but he’s still an elite hitter even with reduced impact there.

7) Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
8) Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves
9) Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
10) Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees
11) Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
12) Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
13) Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers

These are all guys you could call your best outfielder, even though they’re not as elite as the first grouping. Jones should really be in a tier by himself, but this isn’t “Being John Malkovich.” Ellsbury is a better value in redraft leagues because his steals are going to decline in the near future—even though he’s still pretty elite now. Heyward over Puig may surprise some, but it’s more of a vote of confidence in Heyward, who I still believe in as a top-shelf fantasy outfielder long-term.

14) Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
15) Wil Myers, Tampa Bay Rays
16) Oscar Taveras, St Louis Cardinals

The young guns are here. If Taveras was going to start the season in the majors, he’d be first in this group of three. He is going to hit and hit a lot. We all know the upside that Buxton has, but Myers’ has the least ceiling in this group. He gets this spot because he’s done it already at the major-league level.

17) Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

You could rank Kemp anywhere on this list and it would look wrong. I really hope he moves past these injuries because he’s one of my favorite players to watch.

18) Matt Holliday, St Louis Cardinals
19) Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
20) Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants
21) Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers
22) Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
23) Alex Rios, Texas Rangers
24) Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
25) Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics
26) Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
27) Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
28) Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals

This tier is so superfluous that you could make an argument for these players in nearly any order. You can’t beat the consistency of Holliday and Pence, but the Reds’ speedster splits them up with his potential league-changing speed. The most important take away from this tier is not to forget how good Christian Yelich can be. He has the potential to be a .300 hitter with good pop and speed. I’ll still gamble on Bautista for another year or two in redraft formats, but he’s 33 years old, and I’m thinking he won’t get less injury prone.

29) George Springer, Houston Astros
30) Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays
31) Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
32) Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels
33) Domonic Brown, Philadephia Phillies
34) Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
35) Oswaldo Arcia, Minnesota Twins
36) Clint Frazier, Cleveland Indians
37) Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers
38) Curtis Granderson, New York Mets
39) Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers
40) Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox
41) Shane Victorino, Boston Red Sox
42) Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers

This group is sprinkled with power/speed guys that have disappointed recently (Jennings and Jackson), prospects with big upside (Springer, Polanco, Frazier) and some former high-impact players (Hamilton, Beltran, Granderson). The guys who could be had at somewhat of a discount here based on their initial non-stardom are Arcia and Eaton—both of whom could be top-25 outfielders in relatively short order.

43) Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies
44) Carl Crawford, Los Angeles Dodgers
45) Norichika Aoki, Kansas City Royals
46) David Dahl, Colorado Rockies
47) Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays
47B) Dexter Fowler
48) B.J. Upton, Atlanta Braves
49) Coco Crisp, Oakland Athletics
50) Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs
51) Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics
52) Alfonso Soriano, New York Yankees
53) Will Venable, San Diego Padres
54) Nelson Cruz, Free Agent
55) Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
56) Michael Bourn, Cleveland Indians

If you’re looking for a ton of prospects, you’re probably going to be disappointed here. And the big reason for that is the relative shallowness of the position at the major-league level. Crawford would be ranked higher if he weren’t so brittle at this point—when he’s on the field, he’s been the type of hitter he was in Tampa, just with a lot less speed. B.J. Upton and Josh Reddick are looking to bounce back from tough years in 2013, and to an extent I think both can do it. I also do not think Ethier will be a fourth outfielder forever.

57) Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies
58) Albert Almora, Chicago Cubs
59) Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
60) Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox
61) Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers
62) Ben Revere, Philadelphia Phillies
63) Jake Marisnick, Miami Marlins
64) Brian Goodwin, Washington Nationals
65) Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
66) Aaron Hicks, Minnesota Twins
67) Michael Choice, Texas Rangers
68) Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
69) Junior Lake, Chicago Cubs

And here are some of the riskier players. I still am a fan of both Goodwin and Cain, but they’ll have to show more in 2014 to get back to previous heights in dynasty leagues. Also, beware of post-hype guys like Choice, Hicks, and Marisnick—they all have real upside that shouldn’t be discounted because they haven’t set the world on fire yet.

70) Gerardo Parra, Arizona Diamondbacks
71) Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins
72) Torii Hunter, Detroit Tigers
73) Mason Williams, New York Yankees
74) Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels
75) Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins
76) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
77) Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
78) Rymer Liriano, San Diego Padres
79) Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
80) Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates
81) Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
82) Carlos Quentin, San Diego Padres
83) Stephen Piscotty, St Louis Cardinals
84) Daniel Nava, Boston Red Sox
85) Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds
86) Nate Schierholtz, Chicago Cubs
87) Tyler Austin, New York Yankees
88) Nick Williams, Texas Rangers

I don’t understand the intensity of some of the Kole Calhoun love. He’s a decent player, but a near 20/20 candidate he is not. Ozuna gets overlooked in Miami, but he showed a stronger than expected contact level in the majors and will get the first half of the 2014 season to show he belongs in their outfield long-term. Bell and Renfroe are players who could make nice jumps in 2014 and both have significant fantasy upside.

87) Anthony Gose, Toronto Blue Jays
88) Chris Young, New York Mets
89) Corey Dickerson, Colorado Rockies
90) Jorge Bonifacio, Kansas City Royals
91) Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners
92) Bubba Starling, Kansas City Royals
93) Cameron Maybin, San Diego Padres
94) Melky Cabrera, Toronto Blue Jays
95) Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays
96) Delino DeShields Jr, Houston Astros
97) Peter Bourjos, St Louis Cardinals
98) Marlon Byrd, Philadelphia Phillies
99) Domingo Santana, Houston Astros
100) Kyle Parker, Colorado Rockies
101) Angel Pagan, San Francisco Giants
102) Eric Young Jr, New York Mets
103) A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
104) Cesar Puello, New York Mets
105) Michael Morse, San Francisco Giants
106) Denard Span, Washington Nationals
107) Drew Stubbs, Colorado Rockies
108) Lewis Brinson, Texas Rangers
109) Henry Urrutia, Baltimore Orioles
110) Robbie Grossman, Houston Astros
111) Justin Ruggiano, Chicago Cubs
112) Raul Ibanez, Los Angeles Angels
113) Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates
114) Jon Jay, St Louis Cardinals
115) Alex Presley, Minnesota Twins
116) Rajai Davis, Detroit Tigers
117) Reymond Fuentes, San Diego Padres
118) Billy McKinney, Oakland Athletics
119) Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
120) Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Yes, I actually went 120 players deep. Gose is another name not to forget about—if he could figure out how to get on base, the speed could be fun to own. Dickerson, Parker, Stubbs, and Blackmon all benefit from the potential playing time in Colorado, but unfortunately only one of them will likely get it (barring an injury). I’m not a believer in Urrutia’s power, as I think he’ll be severely lacking in the category. I’m as amazed as you are that I ranked a 93-year-old Raul Ibanez on this list, but it’s the right thing to do. I don’t need a discrimination suit on my hands here.

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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