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January 11, 2013 Prospects Will Break Your HeartPhiladelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects
State of the Farm: “But I can't get through. My hands are tied. I won't want to stay. I don't have much to say. But I can't turn away. And you won't see me. You won't see me.” The Top Ten
What Happened in 2012: Biddle made 26 starts in the Florida State League and emerged as a top 100 prospect in baseball and the top talent in the Phillies system. Strengths: Excellent size/strength; delivery is clean; arm works well; fastball is solid-average; can show plus velocity; throws it downhill with some life; curveball flashes plus and should work at that grade; good snap and sharp vertical movement; changeup has taken steps forward; average offering that might have a little more; can turn it over; will show a slider with some depth; good pitchability. Weaknesses: Fastball is a setup, not standout pitch; velo can dip into fringe range; ordinary offering at times; fastball command needs refinement; can get loose in the zone; secondary command needs work; changeup needs to find more consistency; pitch can get deliberate and tipped. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; mature body and solid-average arsenal; good feel for pitching; clean delivery. Fantasy Future: Workhorse frame and deep arsenal should allow for innings and win/loss decisions; has bat missing ability, but won’t be huge strikeout arm at highest level. The Year Ahead: The Double-A test for arms can be quite telling, as the bats can tune up velocity and track average secondary stuff. Biddle will need to refine his fastball command and sharpen his secondary offerings to maintain his lofty prospect status. He won’t be able to live in the zone with an average fastball without finding barrels, so keeping hitters off balance and off his fastball will be vital for success. If the fastball can live in the 90-93 range, it will have more than enough juice to play, and if he can spot it lower in the zone and get ahead on a regular basis, his secondary offerings will look even better. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2012: After an ugly start to his 2012 season, Franco exploded in the second half of the year, showing off his electric bat speed and power potential. Strengths: Incredibly fast hands at the plate; can square plus velocity; easy plus bat speed; very good present strength; contact is rarely empty; plus power in the bat; smokes mistakes; arm is very strong at third; glove should play as average; big ceiling. Weaknesses: Swing can get whippy and loose; will chase out of the zone; aggressive approach sets him up for secondary exploitation; well below-average speed; can make plays at third with okay actions, but footwork can get clumsy and first-step is lacking. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Explanation of Risk: High risk; raw approach at the plate and defensive limitations. Fantasy Future: Has the potential to be an impact bat at the highest level, with plus power potential and a hit tool that should play. Lacks speed and isn’t a great defensive third baseman, but has a chance to stay at the position if the body stays under control. The Year Ahead: If Franco brings his swing from last August to the Florida State League in 2013, his prospect status will explode and he could be sitting atop this list in short order. He can generate excellent bat speed and leverage, but he doesn’t always show the best bat control, and better pitchers with better stuff can exploit that kind of a weakness. Franco has an impact bat, but he’s still raw and needs to let the game come to him. He can play fast and loose, and while that might work in the lower minors, a more advanced level will require a more advanced overall approach. This kid could be very good. Major league ETA: 2015
What Happened in 2012: Morgan was good in his 2011 professional debut, but he really stepped forward after the aggressive promotion to the Florida State League in 2013, where he logged 123 innings and eventually pitched his way to Double-A. Strengths: Very easy arm action; good delivery; finds working rhythm quickly in starts; high-80s/low-90s fastball plays very well; good angle to the plate when spotted down; slider is plus offering; shows sharp two-plane slice; changeup flashes plus potential; plays well off fastball/slider combo; will show slower breaking ball with longer hump (CB); good command/control profile. Weaknesses: Can lose plane and angle when he elevates; fastball normally works in sub-plus velocity range; secondary arsenal plays, but isn’t overpowering; changeup can still get too firm and find barrels. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; already achieved Double-A level; shows good pitchability and solid-average arsenal. Fantasy Future: Lacks ideal height, but strong, durable frame and clean delivery, so innings workload shouldn’t be a problem. Has plus slider, but might be hittable because of average fastball; could be no. 3 starter, with floor of back-end arm. The Year Ahead: Morgan should get another taste of Double-A, and the results should remain positive. The delivery and arm work well, and despite an average fastball, he should be able to miss bats with the slider and keep hitters off balance with the deep secondary repertoire. He falls under fellow southpaw Jesse Biddle on the rankings, but the profiles are similar and Morgan might end up the better major-league arm despite not being the better minor-league prospect. This isn’t another Cliff Lee, despite the forced comps, but this could be a quality starting pitcher that exceeds expectations. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2012: Making his professional debut, Quinn proved that he is the fastest man in the minors not named Billy Hamilton, with easy 80-grade speed on the 20/80 scale. Strengths: Starts and ends with speed; ludicrous speed; every ball in play could be a hit; shows some aptitude with the bat; good barrel awareness and contact ability; solid-average to plus hit tool projection; good approach; can shorten up with two strikes; arm is strong; shows a quick release; obvious quickness in the field/range. Weaknesses: Needs to add strength; can barrel balls, but legs make weaker contact look more glamorous on the stat sheet; below-average power; won’t be power threat at maturity; glove is fringy; stiff actions; lacks ideal leather for shortstop; lacks loud offensive profile. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Explanation of Risk: High risk; raw at the plate; candidate for new position in the field. Fantasy Future: Has elite speed, so will always be a stolen base threat, and catalytic tool will allow hit tool to play up. Depending on refinement of approach, could fit leadoff profile at either second base or perhaps center field. The Year Ahead: Quinn is going to move to full-season ball, and the present utility of his hit tool with be tested. The kid can run like the wind, so even weak contact gives him a chance to make things happen on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest question is his defensive profile, with more than enough range and a strong arm, but actions that leave a lot to be desired. If he can stick at shortstop and add some punch with the stick, Quinn is going to be a force in the minors. Major league ETA: 2016
What Happened in 2012: After ripping 57 extra-base hits in the California League, Joseph failed to continue the offensive trend at the Double-A level, as his game power took a tumble. Strengths: Impressive raw power; torque-heavy swing; big strength; projects to hit 20-plus HR at highest level; arm is very strong; good catch/throw skills; monster makeup and work ethic; has made strides behind the plate; has a chance to make it work. Weaknesses: Hit tool is below average and lacks much projection; creates bat speed, but doesn’t command the barrel in the zone; low-average hitter; approach needs refinement; footwork is heavy. Overall Future Potential: High 5; solid-average regular Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; power is mature and should play if hit tool improves; profile enhanced if he can stick behind the plate. Fantasy Future: Could develop into power-hitting catcher, with enough pop for 20-plus bombs at a premium position. The Year Ahead: Joseph is unlikely to develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter, and he’s unlikely to improve enough behind the plate to be considered a plus defender, but he can do enough to make it all work. The hit tool isn’t great; in fact, it’s not very good and could get exposed for what it really is at the next level. The power is legit, and should play in game action if the approach and hit tool pull their weight, which is debatable. The work ethic keeps the positional value alive, and if Joseph can develop into a ~.240 hitter with 20-plus homers from behind the plate, that’s enough to keep his name penciled in a major-league lineup. Major league ETA: 2013
What Happened in 2012: Pitching out of the Double-A rotation, Martin turned the tide on his career and reemerged as a prospect, as the electric raw stuff was able to play despite continued struggles with command. Strengths: Big arm strength; excellent arm action; fastball is power pitch thrown in the low-mid 90s; can touch higher in bursts; pitch shows hard, late life; potential 7 offering with better command; curveball is tight bottom-heavy breaker; sharp in the upper 70s; slider will flash plus; smallish break; cutter like in mid-80s; big competitor. Weaknesses: Effort in the delivery; despite athleticism and easy arm, gets out of whack mechanically and loses release point; fastball command is below-average; breaking balls can miss barrels, but can get sloppy; changeup is below average; inefficient as a starter. Overall Future Potential: 6; late-innings reliever Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; needs to sharpen command, but has late-innings arsenal and has achieved Double-A level. Fantasy Future: Has the stuff and aggressive nature to miss bats in high-leverage spots. Could be a setup arm or closer if command comes around. The Year Ahead: While still a starter, Martin has the mechanical profile and arsenal of a late-innings reliever, with a plus-plus potential fastball and two breaking balls that can miss bats and force poor contact. The changeup isn’t on the same level, and the command can be downright poor when he loses his release. In short-bursts, Martin could de a successful major-league arm, and if the command can take a step forward, could develop into a dominant force at the end of a bullpen. It will come down to command. He can live in the zone and find some success because of the quality of the raw stuff, but he can thrive with a small step forward. Major league ETA: 2013
What Happened in 2012: Cody Asche, the man who produced a sub-.600 OPS in short-season ball in 2011, crushed baseballs at two stops in 2012, finishing the year by slugging over .500 at the Double-A level. Go figure. Strengths: Natural bat-to-ball ability; can square velocity and stay back on off-speed; good-looking swing; good bat control and feel for contact; hit tool has plus projections; should play at highest level; shows good pop; could develop average game power; arm is strong; glove work at third should be average; heady baseball player. Weaknesses: Unlikely to hit for big game power; approach needs some refinement; lacks plus defensive tools; below-average run/range. Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average regular Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; mature skill-set; achieved Double-A level. Fantasy Future: Lacks high-end ceiling, but has a chance to hit .270-plus with 10-15 HR at the highest level. The Year Ahead: Asche has a breakout year that he is unlikely to duplicate in Triple-A, but he can position himself for a major-league look with a strong showing at the plate and continued refinement in the field. He’s not going to be a star, and unlikely to play beyond the solid-average label, but he can hit a baseball and he can handle the defensive assignment at third, so he is going to bring value to the position at the highest level. Major league ETA: 2013
What Happened in 2012: Pettibone doesn’t have the sexiest profile on the planet, but a steady approach and a good command/control profile pushed him to the Tripe-A level, where another step forward will push him to the major leagues. Strengths: Tall, strong pitcher; clean delivery; repeats well; fastball works in the low-90s; can touch higher with effort; creates good plane to plate; good sink; changeup is best offering; good deception in the arm and late action; slider will flash above-average quality; very good pitchability and feel for command. Weaknesses: Fastball velocity is pedestrian for righty; has to hit spots; can’t elevate; slider can get soft; break lacks intensity; exploitable pitch; can fall in love with changeup. Overall Future Potential: 5; no. 4 starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; some arm issues on resume; lacks high-end stuff, so error margin is small. Fantasy Future: Has the body to log innings and the stuff/pitchability to make it play at the highest level. Unlikely to be big bat-misser. The Year Ahead: With only seven Triple-A starts under his belt, Pettibone is likely booked for a return trip to the International League. The fastball is only an average offering, and if it can tick up without a command sacrifice, the entire profile will tick up as a result. He’s very effective with the changeup, using it in all counts against all hitters, and it should continue to be his money pitch gong forward. The slider needs some help, but plays well off the fastball, and has the potential to grow into an above-average offering. The stuff isn’t great, but he knows how to use it and should develop into a quality major-league starter, with a realistic floor at the back end and a chance for more if the stuff plays up. Major league ETA: 2013
What Happened in 2012: The 17-year-old made his professional debut, showing off his defensive chops and contact ability at the complex level. Strengths: Big time athlete; easy plus run; some sources put a 7 on it; impressive raw defensive skill-set, with easy plus arm and easy plus potential glove; shows some bat to ball aptitude; makeup to handle advanced assignment for age; huge promise. Weaknesses: Very raw; body needs to add strength; bat is empty contact at present; hard to project hit/power; instincts and athleticism, but reads/routes are raw; very long way to go; lots of unknowns. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; very small professional sample; offensive tools need massive jumps. Fantasy Future: Has all the raw defensive skills to be monster at premium spot, with plus run and arm, and plus potential glove. Bat isn’t on same level, but has contact ability and should grow into a line-drive stroke with more strength. The Year Ahead: Tocci is very young and very promising, so the Phillies don’t need to rush the developmental process. A promotion to short-season ball is likely, and as was the case at the complex level, the bat won’t shine until the body catches up and more strength enters his game. This player could go a number of different directions depending on the physical development, and it’s too early in the process to draw many conclusions. The defensive skill-set has a chance to be very legit, and if the bat can show a little something, this is a player on the way up prospect lists. Major league ETA: 2017
What Happened in 2012: The 40th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Watson only made five appearances at the complex level, but the combination of size and stuff gave evaluators plenty to talk about despite the small sample. Strengths: Excellent present size and physical projection; simple, repeatable delivery; long limbs, but stays under control; fastball shows plus potential, already working in the low-90s; creates excellent plane/throws it downhill; curveball has above-average projection; good present depth and sharp vertical movement; good command profile; wants the ball. Weaknesses: Fastball can play soft; curveball flashes, but can open up early; needs to finish pitch; changeup is behind other offerings; work in progress; projection unknown. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Explanation of Risk: High risk; small professional sample; too many unknowns Fantasy Future: Has a prototypical body and already shows two pitches with above-average potential; could develop into mid-rotation starter if everything clicks, and perhaps even more if secondary arsenal is being undersold and if fastball ticks up and holds steady. The Year Ahead: Watson has a lot of upside, starting with his projectable frame and easy delivery, which eventually could push his present fastball into the plus range. He can already spin a good curveball, and the changeup has a good starting ground because of the easy arm and good overall pitchability. A full-season assignment would be aggressive, but the 19-year-old has the approach to handle the jump, and enough raw stuff to justify the move. This could be a riser in the system. Major league ETA: 2016 Prospects on the Rise: 1. OF/IF Andrew Pullin: A fifth-round draft pick in 2012, Pullin shows very good bat-to-ball ability, and if he can make the transition to second base, has the type of offensive profile to have value at the position. 2. C Gabriel Lino: Loud tools, especially the raw power and arm strength, but so far the promising physical characteristics have yet to make an impact in game action. He’s a long shot, but a promising dream nonetheless, and if he can bring those tools to baseball life, he has a chance to become a very legit prospect. 3. RHP Mitch Gueller: A supplemental first-round pick in 2012 and a promising two-way amateur player, Gueller has an excellent combination of present size and projectable stuff, including a fastball that already sits in the plus velocity range and could develop into a legit plus-plus offering. Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013 1. OF/1B Darin Ruf: Ruf was the 2012’s season pop-up prospect of the year, trashing the minors before an impressive 12-game clip at the highest level. The scouting industry is mixed on his future, with the a vocal majority questioning his sustainability at the level, while others insist this is a legit major-league bat, one capable of 25-plus home runs. 2. RHP Phillippe Aumont: It seems like Aumont has been a prospect for a decade, but the former first-round pick just turned 24, and after a major-league taste in 2012, will look to bring his heavy mid-90s bowling ball fastball to a late-innings role. 3. LHP Jake Diekman: 95 mph from the left-side is always a thing of beauty, and when that heat is delivered from a lengthy 6’4’’, 200 lb. frame, along with a sharp slider that misses bats, you have yourself a prospect that should develop into a major-league force. The command needs to improve to find sustainable success, but as his 27-inning sample showed, Diekman can miss bats at any level of professional baseball. Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/87 or later)
Ranking prospects from a “thin” system is often one of the most challenging tasks for any prospect writer. How do you differentiate between blatantly flawed prospects? Compound that problem with young major-league talent with flaws and you have a real conundrum for an under-25 list. It’s no secret the Phillies have been making moves to compete at the big-league level, utilizing a store of prospects to acquire talent like Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. Over the last few years, the Phillies have shipped out high-end prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Villar and Domingo Santana; that type of talent would make the Phillies list look much better. As it stands now, the Phillies have very little young MLB talent, mixing only Domonic Brown and Freddy Galvis into the top 10. Galvis helped out in the big leagues in 2012 as the Phillies waited for Chase Utley to return, and while his defense was outstanding, his bat left much to be desired. Galvis has long been lauded for his work with the leather and that will not change going forward. He still profiles as a potential bottom-of-the-order hitter with plus-plus defense, making him a potential everyday player. Domonic Brown has gone from one of the elite prospects in baseball to one of the most purely confusing young players in the game today. In 492 big-league plate appearances Brown has a .236/.315/.388; a line that, while disappointing, still harbors some hope for the future. He has still shown an ability to make good contact and there’s some pop in that tall frame, leaving many scouts to wonder what happens if the Phillies actually give him a chance to play every day in 2013. It’s hard to give up on Brown’s tools, but it’s also hard to project him as the star he was once considered to be. –Mark Anderson A Parting Thought…..The system is lacking when it comes to players with high-end upside or prospects that wear the badge of national recognition, but if you take the time to look, you can find plenty of talent worth keeping an eye on. Special thanks to Nick Faleris, Mark Anderson, and Hudson Belinsky for their input and influence on this list.
Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @ProfessorParks
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The Keeper Reaper: Outfielders for 1/11/13
With regards to Biddle's changeup, what does "can turn it over" mean?
Based on the way a circle changeup is gripped, when executed properly the rotation produced causes arm-side movement and the ball breaks down/inward or fades to that side. The pitcher "turned over his changeup" or he can "turn it over" means he can produce that movement and finish. As opposed to a straight changeup, which will break downward some on the approach to the plate and look like it is dropping.