July 28, 2012
BP Fantasy Podcast
Episode 14: The Next Youkilis
by Jason Collette and Paul Sporer
00:23 - The Next Youkilis
00:49 - housekeeping
03:00 - pitchers:
Zack Greinke,
Anibal Sanchez, how to handle FAAB in AL Only leagues with Greinke and Sanchez,
James McDonald,
Homer Bailey,
A.J. Griffin,
Doug Fister,
Clay Buchholz,
Tommy Hanson,
Chris Sale, Bryan Villareal,
Sean Doolittle,
David Hernandez,
Jared Burton,
Greg Holland,
David Robertson,
Rex Brothers,
Jake McGee,
Wandy Rodriguez
57:45 - hitters:
Hanley Ramirez,
Danny Espinosa,
Starling Marte,
Dustin Pedroia,
Ben Zobrist,
Carlos Pena,
Chris Carter,
Chris Young,
Lorenzo Cain,
Carlos Gomez,
Carlos Santana,
Carlos Quentin,
Cameron Maybin,
Travis Snider,
Delmon Young
2:09:30 - we out
Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Jason's other articles.
You can contact Jason by clicking here
Paul Sporer is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Paul's other articles.
You can contact Paul by clicking here
Transaction Analysis: ... (07/27)
5 comments have been left for this article. 
Value Picks: Starting Pitchers for 8/9/12
Rodney has clearly improved as a pitcher, but that doesn't necessarily mean there isn't luck involved. His 86.7% LOB% isn't sustainable. His .232 BABIP isn't sustainable. His 3.2 HR/FB rate is not sustainable. These numbers point to a likely regression, not that he's a bad pitcher. Although I did enjoy the podcast, like always, it was very informative.
I think it's dangerous to just say aw that's unsustainable, regression IS coming when it comes to relievers.
10 RPs throwing 50+ IP had 86% LOB or better last year. 9 in 2010 and 10 in 2009. Over the last three years combined, 4 reached the threshold. Norms don't apply to RPs.
A .232 BABIP is sustainable for an RP, especially in a single year. 17 hit that mark or better last year, including 3 guys w/sub .200. 11 hit the HR/FB mark including 5 at 2% or below and a pair who didn't allow a homer (Javier Lopez & Brad Ziegler).
Applying the regression marks of SPs to RPs is going leave you out in the cold on a lot of guys who put it together for a year.
Plus with Rodney, it's not like he hasn't always had really good stuff, he just hasn't been able to harness it. I get what you're saying and I'm glad you enjoy the show, I just get a little perturbed when it's assumed a player can't sustain a level. Now if someone has a .000 BABIP or 100% LOB%, sure, but the marks Rodney is putting up aren't unprecedented, especially in a single season sample.