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April 19, 2012
Between The Numbers
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Outfield
by Colin Wyers
There has been something weird going on in baseball over the past few seasons. To wit:
Year |
1B_RT |
2B_RT |
3B_RT |
SS_RT |
LF_RT |
CF_RT |
RF_RT |
2003 |
0.1713 |
0.2919 |
0.2351 |
0.3017 |
0.3193 |
0.3712 |
0.3095 |
2004 |
0.1695 |
0.2879 |
0.2368 |
0.3058 |
0.311 |
0.3706 |
0.3184 |
2005 |
0.1711 |
0.2877 |
0.2369 |
0.3043 |
0.3172 |
0.3687 |
0.3141 |
2006 |
0.1666 |
0.2873 |
0.2402 |
0.306 |
0.3186 |
0.3702 |
0.3112 |
2007 |
0.1686 |
0.287 |
0.235 |
0.3095 |
0.3232 |
0.3699 |
0.3068 |
2008 |
0.1706 |
0.2874 |
0.2382 |
0.3037 |
0.3171 |
0.3706 |
0.3123 |
2009 |
0.1735 |
0.2829 |
0.2374 |
0.3062 |
0.3163 |
0.3735 |
0.3102 |
2010 |
0.1694 |
0.2855 |
0.2373 |
0.3078 |
0.314 |
0.3738 |
0.3122 |
2011 |
0.168 |
0.2903 |
0.2324 |
0.3093 |
0.3162 |
0.369 |
0.3148 |
2012 |
0.168 |
0.2935 |
0.2288 |
0.3097 |
0.324 |
0.3713 |
0.3047 |
That's the rate of all BIP fielded by each position, compared to its group (so infielders and outfielders each sum to 1 as a group).
What we see over time is an increase in balls fielded by the shortstop and second basemen, among other things. (This holds true if you ignore this season, which is barely under way.) Third base and first base see corresponding drops. In the outfield, we see left fielders picking up more plays relative to right fielders.
To see what's going on, let's split it out by batter handedness. First, right handers:
YEAR |
1B_RT |
2B_RT |
3B_RT |
SS_RT |
LF_RT |
CF_RT |
RF_RT |
2003 |
0.1134 |
0.2275 |
0.307 |
0.3521 |
0.318 |
0.3717 |
0.3103 |
2004 |
0.1098 |
0.2258 |
0.3072 |
0.3572 |
0.3166 |
0.3686 |
0.3148 |
2005 |
0.1116 |
0.2218 |
0.309 |
0.3576 |
0.3206 |
0.3693 |
0.3101 |
2006 |
0.1128 |
0.224 |
0.307 |
0.3562 |
0.3179 |
0.3712 |
0.3109 |
2007 |
0.112 |
0.223 |
0.3022 |
0.3627 |
0.3206 |
0.3722 |
0.3072 |
2008 |
0.1109 |
0.2212 |
0.3116 |
0.3563 |
0.3131 |
0.3709 |
0.316 |
2009 |
0.1111 |
0.2156 |
0.3102 |
0.3631 |
0.3099 |
0.3773 |
0.3128 |
2010 |
0.111 |
0.2186 |
0.3083 |
0.3621 |
0.3056 |
0.3778 |
0.3166 |
2011 |
0.1074 |
0.2188 |
0.3045 |
0.3693 |
0.3104 |
0.3752 |
0.3143 |
2012 |
0.1051 |
0.2172 |
0.3001 |
0.3776 |
0.3149 |
0.3824 |
0.3027 |
Balls hit to the shortstop is on the uptick, with a corresponding decline in the number of balls hit to the second baseman. In the outfield, things get really weird, with the ball seeming to shift more to left and center, and right field declining.
On to left-handers:
YEAR |
1B_RT |
2B_RT |
3B_RT |
SS_RT |
LF_RT |
CF_RT |
RF_RT |
2003 |
0.2521 |
0.3818 |
0.1348 |
0.2313 |
0.321 |
0.3705 |
0.3085 |
2004 |
0.2522 |
0.3739 |
0.1393 |
0.2345 |
0.3035 |
0.3732 |
0.3233 |
2005 |
0.253 |
0.3785 |
0.1376 |
0.2308 |
0.3126 |
0.368 |
0.3195 |
2006 |
0.249 |
0.3842 |
0.1377 |
0.2291 |
0.3197 |
0.3686 |
0.3117 |
2007 |
0.252 |
0.3814 |
0.1357 |
0.2308 |
0.327 |
0.3667 |
0.3063 |
2008 |
0.2544 |
0.3804 |
0.1353 |
0.2299 |
0.3226 |
0.3702 |
0.3072 |
2009 |
0.2563 |
0.3721 |
0.1407 |
0.2309 |
0.3246 |
0.3687 |
0.3068 |
2010 |
0.2548 |
0.3835 |
0.1334 |
0.2283 |
0.326 |
0.3681 |
0.3059 |
2011 |
0.2511 |
0.3882 |
0.1336 |
0.2271 |
0.3237 |
0.3609 |
0.3154 |
2012 |
0.2492 |
0.3919 |
0.1368 |
0.2222 |
0.3353 |
0.3576 |
0.3072
|
This time we see more balls to second and fewer balls to short, the opposite of what we saw above. The outfield looks similar, albeit more pronounced—more balls to left, fewer balls to right (but with a decrease in balls to center, unlike the right-handed hitters).
What to make of it? Maybe it's nothing, but it feels like something is going on. It could have to do with how hitters are pulling the ball, or how teams are positioning or assigning fielders. (In the outfield I feel like there's some of each going on, actually.) I don't know what it all means, exactly, but I think it's worth investigating in more detail.
Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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<< Previous Article
Future Shock: 2011 Dra... (04/18)
|
<< Previous Column
Between The Numbers: F... (02/01)
|
Next Column >>
Between The Numbers: T... (05/04)
|
Next Article >>
The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/19)
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I don't have the data, but my guess would be it's a positioning thing. The Rays are extreme in their use, but I would think the overall use of the shift has increased over the past decade. As teams get more sophisticated about tracking batted ball data they probably are increasing the amount of shifts they employ, which means middle infielders are going to see balls fielded increase.
But why the relative decrease in the corners, then?
It's also interesting to note that this shift seems to have almost no relationship to BABIP - correlation between "MID_RT" (2B_RT+SS_RT) is -0.09, totally insignificant in this sample size.
It is weird, I agree. That might be related to pulling the ball less.
Interesting, but not statistically significant (and remember, correlation doesn't mean causation) - there IS some correlation (.25) between MID_RT and strikeout rate.
Best correlation I've found so far with MID_RT is HR_CON, at -0.43.
So even with increase in K's, fewer home runs mean more balls in play. What does the correlation look like for other positions/groups?
I mean, it could follow if you think that increased use of the shift changes WHO fields the ball but not how many balls they field as a team, necessarily. But then you have to think that the shifts are largely ineffectual.
The act of measuring defense could lead to not just changes in positioning, but also changes in personnel. Seems to me that we've seen a lot more defense-first shortstops in recent years than we did a decade ago.
Wouldn't that show up in BABIP, though?