Future Shock

Just trying to understand a bit of your underlying philosophy: If player A has 50% chance of generating 30 WARP over 10 seasons, and 50% of generating 0, and player B will definitely produce 20 WARP over 10 seasons, how would you rank them? In other words, to what extent do you value upside over certainty?

Excellent! Looking forward to the chat.

First impression: where's Nick Franklin? Do guys like Jean Segura and Kolten Wong really project better?

Think I counted 10 Padres on the list. Wow!

Is there anywhere to go for detailed write-ups on these guys? I'm new to following baseball with any seriousness, so beyond going "yay my team has some good prospects" I don't really know what to take away from this list.

Check the Future Shock section. Has detailed write-ups on teams Top 11 prospects. Need to subscribe to BP to read them. It's worth it

For anyone curious, here's how the prospect list breaks down by team. Padres lead the way with 10 prospects, while five different teams only have a single prospect. Every team has at least some representation.

AL EAST
Toronto - 5
Boston - 4
New York Yankees - 4
Baltimore - 3
Tampa - 2
TOTAL: 18

AL CENTRAL
Kansas City - 5
Minnesota - 3
Detroit - 2
Chicago - 1
Cleveland - 1
TOTAL: 12

AL WEST
Oakland - 7
Texas - 5
Seattle - 4
Los Angeles - 2
TOTAL: 18


NL EAST
Atlanta - 3
New York - 3
Washington - 3
Florida - 2
Philadelphia - 2
TOTAL: 13

NL CENTRAL
Pittsburgh - 6
St. Louis - 5
Chicago - 3
Houston - 3
Cincinnati - 2
Milwaukee - 1
TOTAL: 20

NL WEST
San Diego - 10
Colorado - 5
Arizona - 3
Los Angeles - 1
San Francisco - 1
TOTAL: 20

Thanks to KG's top 101 list, we can determine that the best prospect lineup would be:
C: Travis D'Arnaud
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Cory Spangenberg
3B: Miguel Sano
SS: Jurickson Profar
OF:Bryce Harper
OF: Mike Trout
OF: Gary Brown
DH: Jesus Montero
with a rotation of Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Shelby Miller and Addison Reed as the closer

Great stuff, KG.

I'm surprised I haven't seen any questions (here or Twitter) about Moore over Harper/Trout. While I understand that there *is* a such thing as a pitching prospect, short of a Strasburg-type monster it seems difficult to imagine any pitcher returning the value of a Harper or Trout if either approach their ceiling.

I'd love to hear you expand on that choice, to which I'm sure you gave a LOT of thought.

Interesting as always. The only thing that surprised me was Brandon Jacobs at 48.

Apparently Bundy should have been the first pick in last year's draft. The 17 picks for the 2011 draft on the list:

Bundy
Cole
Bauer
Lindor
Rendon
Starling
Hultzen
Bradley
Bell
Springer
Norris
Spangenberg
Baez
Gray
Fernandez
Hedges
Ross

Another few guys will probably make it next year like Anderson, Swihart, Cron, and Guerrieri.

I have a question. This is apparently your approach:

"I approach it as if I were a major league club. What I'm sharing with you is what is known in the industry as a "pref list." That is, if I were an MLB club trading for one these players, this is the order i which I would try to acquire them. Every team maintains such a list for all 30 clubs; this is mine."

If that is the case, why do you have Matt Purke at #91 when he was not chosen until the 3rd round while many not on your list were picked in the 1st & 2nd rounds? I can certainly understand that your evaluation is different from that of 30 other teams, but what is it about Purke-or about those picked much higher-that leads you to a conclusion so different from theirs, especially since there is no pro data on him since the draft?

The one that surprised me was Luis Heredia. Given that he's 17, and scuffled in rookie ball, I'm somewhat surprised that he's rated so highly. I accept that he has a load of potential, but there are other similar young international players (Elier Hernandez, Ronald Guzman, Jeimer Candelario and so on) who also have huge potential. I wonder if you could explain why you chose to rank Heredia so highly, and not any of the others.

The other question I had would be how much of a difference it makes to Lavarnway's ranking if he can a) stick b) catch well enough to survive a couple of days a week or c) give up on catching altogether. Also interested in how you see his chances of sticking as of right now.

Thanks for taking on the Cespedes question up front. The other remaining obvious question : where would Yu Darvish
fit on this list if he were eligible ? Top 5 ?

For me the surprise in Jameson Taillon at 13. Seems a bit high, especially when he's ahead of guys like Walker and Arenado.

You seem a little higher on Randall Delgado than many other folks ranking prospects. Do you feel that command is an underrated attribute in the scouting community as opposed to more visually apparent skills like speed, movement, size, etc?

Your TX scouts must have had a bad 2011 seeing the drop in Martin Perez & Leonys Martin must have had eye opening disappointing July and Aug. You had him ranked 38th in your July top 50. I realize 17 drafted players are included in the top 100 but that is quite a drop from your July quote:
"Has played fewer than 40 games as a pro, but has already showcased plus hitting skills, gap power, good wheels, an outstanding approach, and good defense. Could play a big role in a pennant race come September."
From this quote I would think he would crack the top 100.

I'd suggest signing bonus might be a better proxy for ability than draft position.

Bill Hamilton...SHSS? (Second-Half Seduction Syndrome)

Just surprised to see him this high.

Thanks for the list!

Was it Wil Myers strong AFL that launched him up to 19 from your ranking of 50 on your midseason top 50?

The only thing is, guys like Crow and Sizemore have become major leaguers, hence they were pretty good prospects. Right?

Besides, it's not as if KG claims superiority in his rankings. I've yet to hear him proclaim "I am the king of all prospect gurus...all hail my genius!"

I think the inclusion and placement of Daniel Norris and Jose Fernandez might make you look very smart down the line. Applaud the effort, Kevin. Nice list.

In 2012 will you go to Spring Training and the Arizona Fall League / instructs? I just can not understand why those are not absolute can't misses for you...at a minimum the AFL and instructs. I do understand budgets and time constraints that being said I know some of your followers make it all of them yearly. I could only assume you seeing more of these players in person and the fact by going you would/could gain even more contacts it can only help.

Bundy and Cole over Miller!!! Ah, I'm pulling my hair out! jk... Seriously, though, it's hard for me to imagine clubs wanting either in a trade over Miller, due to proximity to the majors, but I guess that's only part of the methodology, as KG would want them over Miller if he were running a club.

However, the ranking of Tavares makes up for it, lol. Great job overall!

This is what we wait all offseason for, prospect nerds!

Breakdown by position
1B: 4
2B: 2 (can we have a new acronym ... "TINSTASBP" There is no such thing as a second base prospect?)
3B: 8
C: 10
INF: 1
LHP: 11
OF: 21
OF/2B: 1
RHP: 35
SS: 8

How close were Jays prospects Hutchison, Nicolino and McGuire?

I think he said Hutchison/Nicolino were close to making the cut and that McGuire was not at all(during his twitter chat last night)

james - now we get it - but you should have let us into the joke from the first post! Entertaining stuff though!

Maybe James has low blood sugar today cause his comment in 2011: "Best. Column. Ever. Best. Prospector. Ever. To this day, it amazes me how on-point you are! You've inspired my "finally published" writings. You are the best ever! Youre old friend, James K." Shows a roller-coaster of appreciation.

Either that or James is really KG and is just driving comments and page views.

I'd still like to see a list where you look at KG's 1-10 vs. his 11-20 and his 21-30 over the years looking at how many 1) made it to the bigs 2)became top 100 players. How good is KG at evaluating tiers overall versus finding individual talent. It's so hard to judge him when you pick out single players, but how does he do over a long period of time at evaluating tiers of talent?

I'd love to see the Top 101 25 and under...

I think KG has a stalker on his hands.

An intriguing selection of Alfaro at 101. I'd be curious to know how much separation you see between him and Christian Bethancourt.

Slightly upset #101 wasn't listed as "#TheLegend."

KG, could you discuss the large discrepancy in Mike Montgomery's ranking across different publications this year. I usually put the most weight into your opinions and was wondering how one well respected publication can have him as the Royals top prospect and for you #6 and outside the top 101. Is this a case of scouts outside the Royals org being unimpressed or more of personal opinion, and if you were to poll ten scouts how many do you think would take Matt Purke over Mike Montgomery?

On the actual list however- i like it. I think you could make an argument for any ordering of Trout/Harper/Moore and I'd agree with it. Personally I'd go Trout/Harper/Moore, but that's just me.

I noticed a heavy representation of the 2011 draft class, which I would assume is indicative of how deep and talented that class was.

Overall I think the list is well balanced between projection/ceiling and floor players as well as those with pro ball experience and those who signed at the 2011 deadline/yet to make stateside debut.

Good deal, can't wait for the chat!

Per Richard B's question above about Matt Adams being a 4-star guy and ending up at #69, so far KG has had 46 4-star guys and 32 5-star guys in his Top 11 lists (still have 7 teams to go). That puts Adams in the upper tier of KG's 4-star prospects.

*Looks like this isn't going to post directly to that comment for some reason. Good bad pun by the way*

Could you add links to previous years' lists, as you do with the team lists?

Report that Cespedes has signed with the A's. Given that they don't appear to be ready to contend in that division over the next 3 years (his peak years), I'm not sure I get the signing.

So where do the three stars begi... oh, never mind.

It's interesting how people critisize Top (insert #) Lists to begin with. I would assume that KG does the top 101 list, not for himself, but because people need to see information put in ordered lists. I would suggest that the top 20 players on the list have a very good chance of being successful in MLB. That's something that one in five thousand prospects can boast.
The remaining (21-101) probably stand a 50/50 chance of ever having any meaningful MLB impact. At odds of 50/50 (at best), I think it's safe to say that those names could be interchaneable anywhere on the 21-101 ranks.
Kevin's quality of work lies in the Future Shock series that gives every fan the deepest and most researched look into their favorite organizations. You don't fall into quality like that without painstaking work. The Top 101 is more an excersize in dart throwing, provided to those who lead condensed and ordered lives. Want to learn about prospects?.........read Future Shock. Want something to argue about prospects around the water cooler?.......read the top 101.

On a side note, Kevin, did my favorite prospect make #116, or did he plummet to #120? I adore him.

I looked up the last few years top 10. Great track record
If you had to pick a few Players who are outside of the top 50, who could be top 15 next year, whos your target?

Whats a realistic Comp for Oscar Taveras? I understand he is extremely difficult to project, but I honestly have no idea. I am extremely excited about this guy.

Shocked (in a very good way) to see Gary Brown all the way up at #18. Most of the other lists had him anywhere from the upper 40's down to the 90's. Re-reading the Giants Future Shock writeup on him, I can see the why KG has him so high. A potential All-Star hitter with Gold Glove caliber defense in CF! I'll take two, please.

I remember when I first subscribed to BP a few years ago, I would read Kevin's Top 101 and most of the guys would be players I didn't know too much about, and it was (and still is) awesome. But now that I'm totally addicted to all things BP I think that I have read something on every single one of these guys at least once and in most cases multiple times. I'm not saying that this is a bad thing, but I do wonder if the opportunity is here for an expansion of sorts in this article. Most of us are subscribers because we love great information, and are willing to play for it. Also, most of us are very happy to see any and every article about prospects on this site, whether it be from Kevin or from Jason Parks. With that in mind, I was wondering if anyone else thinks it would be really cool to see a follow-up article from either Kevin or Jason (or Kevin and Jason) discussing the Top 102 - 201. Certainly I'm being greedy in just asking for this, but it seems like something that almost all of us would love. Kevin and Jason could even do it draft-style where they take turns picking players. That would be so awesome. Anyway, thanks KG for the top 101, excellent as always.

Or maybe a weekly article titled "The Other 101" where Jason or Kevin give scouting reports and anecdotes on younger prospects that didn't crack the year's Top 101.

Hey KG, great job with this as always. I apologize if this has been addressed in one of the comments above (didn't read 'em all), but I bought the iPad ebook version of BP2012 and the top 101 list in the book has Manny Machado at #6 and Dylan Bundy at #8, whereas now those two are swapped (which makes more sense since you had Bundy as #1 on your Orioles list). Was this an oversight in editing the list for the book, and the only one? Or not a mistake at all and does it merely reflect a tweak to your thinking on things since the book went to print (I'd imagine over a month ago)? If the latter, are there other changes? (haven't noticed any others yet)

Aoki, Mil. OF.... where does he fit?

New intel on Eddie Rosario? - who jumps from a two star prospect on the Twins (not making their top 11) to number 87 overall

Aside from being different from a top-"100" list, I've always thought your top-101 list adds one extra prospect as a tip of the hat to Hanley Ramirez' rise from being ranked 100th on one of BP's old top 100 lists published prior to 2005. It's as if you want to prevent the next HanRam from having been your last pick.

Franklin Morales is suddenly looking better KG - 24-3 K to BB ratio as a starter for Boston