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September 17, 2010

One-Hoppers

Three True Outcomes Leaders

by Jay Jaffe

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You know we love the Three True Outcomes and have for over a decade. As Rany Jazayerli put it, "[T]he Three True Outcomes distill the game to its essence, the battle of pitcher against hitter, free from the distractions of the defense, the distortion of foot speed or the corruption of managerial tactics like the bunt and his wicked brother, the hit-and-run." But for all of our love, we've often failed to maintain a dedicated leaderboard in our stats reports. So today in honor of Marc Normandin's article on Adam Dunn and my own reference to the mystical TTO leaderboard in today's AL Hit List, I present to you the 2010 leaders (200 plate appearance minimum):

Rk	Player	Tm	PA	HR	BB	SO	TTO%
1	Mark Reynolds	ARI	563	32	76	197	54.2%
2	Jim Thome	MIN	319	23	57	81	50.5%
3	Jack Cust	OAK	357	11	61	106	49.9%
4	Adam Dunn	WAS	590	35	70	175	47.5%
5	Russell Branyan	2TM	428	25	46	131	47.2%
6	Carlos Pena	TBA	529	27	79	143	47.1%
7	Mike Stanton	FLO	329	20	28	104	46.2%
8	Pedro Alvarez	PIT	322	11	34	103	46.0%
9	Shelley Duncan	CLE	220	10	21	70	45.9%
10	Chris Snyder	2TM	345	14	50	93	45.5%
11	Colby Rasmus	SLN	469	22	53	134	44.6%
12	David Ortiz	BOS	549	30	74	136	43.7%
13	Will Venable	SDN	396	12	43	118	43.7%
14	Rick Ankiel	2TM	207	5	20	65	43.5%
15	Pat Burrell	2TM	381	17	52	93	42.5%
16	Geovany Soto	CHN	378	17	61	79	41.5%
17	Andruw Jones	CHA	312	19	40	70	41.3%
18	Bill Hall	BOS	339	17	28	94	41.0%
19	Justin Upton	ARI	571	17	64	152	40.8%
20	Drew Stubbs	CIN	529	18	45	152	40.6%
21	B.J. Upton	TBA	548	17	61	144	40.5%
22	Jason Giambi	COL	208	6	34	44	40.4%
23	Matthew Joyce	TBA	213	8	34	44	40.4%
24	Jose Bautista	TOR	616	47	93	106	39.9%
25	Milton Bradley	SEA	278	8	28	75	39.9%
26	Marcus Thames	NYA	212	11	19	54	39.6%
27	Prince Fielder	MIL	639	30	96	127	39.6%
28	Jayson Werth	PHI	601	21	74	142	39.4%
29	Michael Saunders	SEA	279	8	30	72	39.4%
30	Dan Uggla	FLO	604	30	71	137	39.4%
31	Mike Napoli	LAA	463	25	35	122	39.3%
32	Adam LaRoche	ARI	560	23	45	152	39.3%
33	David Wright	NYN	610	23	66	149	39.0%
34	Wilson Betemit	KCA	263	12	32	58	38.8%
35	Ian Stewart	COL	423	18	42	104	38.8%
36	Rickie Weeks	MIL	678	27	65	170	38.6%
37	Ike Davis	NYN	539	18	64	126	38.6%
38	Ryan Howard	PHI	560	29	47	140	38.6%
39	Jason Heyward	ATL	556	17	81	116	38.5%
40	Brad Hawpe	2TM	325	9	40	76	38.5%

As he did in 2009, Reynolds leads the majors by dint of a 200+ strikeout pace, and looks to have the title of TTO champion sewn up. Alas, he's is having a relatively down season by most measures, hitting just .207/.326/.456 due both to contact woes and bad luck on balls in play; his BABIP has dropped from .338 last year to .261 this year due to those pesky fielders and their meddling ways. The next five names on the list below Reynolds are all familiar to TTO connoisseurs, but there's some new blood in the lower reaches of the top 10 via rookies Alvarez and Stanton, and the journeyman Duncan. The likes of Rasmus and Venable are also relatively new to this party. The TTO style lives on! Note also the presence of four Diamondbacks here (including the departed Snyder, now in Pittsburgh); as Joe Posnanski points out, the Snakes are on their way to a record-setting season for whiffing. The Rays, who lead the AL in K's, have five names here themselves, including two-teamers Burrell and Hawpe.

13 comments have been left for this article.

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dianagram

(9530)

Nice!

Now who is on the opposite side of the spectrum ... the Anti-TTO, as it were?

Sep 17, 2010 08:41 AM

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roycewebb

(1249)

I was wondering exactly the same thing. Maybe Juan Pierre, or one of the young contact-oriented Latin shortstops, Andrus or Escobar or Castro, someone like that?

Sep 17, 2010 09:16 AM

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dianagram

(9530)

Oh, and the movie you cleverly wordplay on, Koyaanisqatsi, is a must see.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085809/

Sep 17, 2010 09:25 AM

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rating: -1

dianagram

(9530)

sorry .... posted this to the wrong article :-(

Sep 17, 2010 09:25 AM

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rating: 1

CRP13

(46873)

I have the soundtrack. Glass was a weirdo. Need to check that out.

Sep 17, 2010 09:55 AM

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cjslawyer

(57881)

You may have to start giving the TTO leader the "Mark Reynolds Award."

Sep 17, 2010 09:46 AM

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Agent007

(46983)

Somehow I am missing the formula. Where does the percentage come from? How is it determined?

Sep 17, 2010 11:25 AM

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TraderBob

(4874)

((HR+BB+SO) / PA) * 100% = TTO %

(... in Agent007's defense the definition does not present the actual formula)

Sep 17, 2010 11:38 AM

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Jay Jaffe

BP staff

(9077)

Thanks for calling my attention to that. I've updated the glossary entry to include the formula.

Sep 18, 2010 11:46 AM

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mbrignall

(1851)

There's one guy who leaves them all in the dust. It might only be 116 PA, but Ryan Langerhans is an unworldly 62%. Since that's only 3% HR, you know when you see Ryan stride to the plate, that there's a 59% chance he walks away in one direction or another.

Sep 17, 2010 11:38 AM

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NYYanks826

(37443)

You figure for the anti-TTO award, guys like Ichiro and Jeff Keppinger are also on there.

Sep 17, 2010 17:11 PM

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dianagram

(9530)

Here are the anti-TTO leaders through 9/16 (apologies if this doesn't format properly):
Name PA HR BB SO TTO
D Eckstein 429 1 23 28 12.1%
A.J. Pierzynski 466 8 14 35 12.2%
Juan Pierre* 666 1 41 44 12.9%
A Callaspo# 566 10 30 37 13.6%
Pedro Feliz 401 5 12 41 14.5%
Placido Polanco 549 6 28 46 14.6%
Jose Lopez 576 7 21 59 15.1%
Cesar Izturis# 464 1 22 48 15.3%
Bengie Molina 384 5 24 32 15.9%
Orlando Cabrera 492 4 26 49 16.1%
Jeff Keppinger 516 5 47 31 16.1%
Mike Aviles 368 4 17 39 16.3%
Miguel Tejada 615 13 28 61 16.6%
Jason Kendall 490 0 37 45 16.7%
Y Betancourt 522 15 17 56 16.9%
Jose Reyes# 543 10 28 56 17.3%
Julio Borbon* 407 3 16 53 17.7%
Ryan Theriot 580 2 35 67 17.9%
Kurt Suzuki 478 12 29 45 18.0%
Wilson Valdez 318 4 14 40 18.2%
Carlos Lee 584 21 32 55 18.5%
Chris Getz* 248 0 19 28 19.0%
Yadier Molina 504 6 42 49 19.2%
M Brantley* 269 3 19 30 19.3%
Alcides Escobar 512 4 32 64 19.5%
Denard Span* 650 3 57 67 19.5%
Omar Infante 438 7 24 55 19.6%
Ichiro Suzuki* 658 6 42 82 19.8%
Brendan Ryan 435 2 30 54 19.8%
Rajai Davis 490 5 21 71 19.8%
Starlin Castro 449 3 24 62 19.8%
Angel Sanchez 237 0 9 38 19.8%
Marco Scutaro 649 11 52 66 19.9%
V Guerrero 583 27 32 57 19.9%
Jack Wilson 211 0 7 35 19.9%
Ryan Sweeney* 331 1 24 41 19.9%
V Martinez# 475 15 33 47 20.0%
Alexei Ramirez 567 17 22 75 20.1%
Jerry Hairston 472 10 31 54 20.1%
Danny Valencia 257 2 17 33 20.2%

Sep 17, 2010 19:44 PM

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Dr. Dave

(1652)

I play in an 8-team Diamond Mind league, AL-only, 84-game season. For the 2008 season, I had Jack Cust on my team, and he shattered all previous league TTO records, winning the TTO triple crown with 24 HR (tie), 126 K, and 67 BB+HBP in 314 PA.

Final TTO%: 217/314 = 69.1%

Final slash stats: a very Deeresque .222/.385/.547, for an ISO of .325 ... Oof.

Sep 17, 2010 20:05 PM

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rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

Prospectus Q&A: Russel... (09/17)

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One-Hoppers: Even More... (09/18)

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Kiss'Em Goodbye: Houst... (09/17)

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