BP Unfiltered

Glad to see they're out.

Looks like one item not caught in testing: There's a totalling problem with at least one pitcher. Check Gio Gonzalez' projection; I think 102 K is possible in 101 innings, but not so possible in 66 IP. Projecting Gio to K 14 per 9 seems like there's some adding issue.

--JRM

Wow - I just realized that all of the charts with multiple rows of data are sortable! Clicking on any column header will sort the data in ascending/descending order. It's not yet clear how this is beneficial - for example, sorting the comparable players by year rather than by rank doesn't seem very useful - but it sure is darn cool.

Very cool. I especially love the "out of baseball" frowny face in the ten year forecast. Man, that cracks me up for some reason. I like.

Long term projections: 1) Have been fixed? I am still not seeing the power numbers I would expect from the Uptons or Adam Jones. 2) How reliable are they once you get like 2, 3... 8 years out? Has there are ever been are article or study done? Are these mainly for fun?

Check the plots on the players. Albert Pujols projected TAv:

2010: .353
2011: .349
2012: .343

On the 10 year performance plot:
2010: < .350
2011: around .340
2012: .330

I noticed this error on every hitter I looked at.

First, I really like the new layout and how historical stats are included. The cards are now pretty sleek.

One thing I haven't figured out yet, though I haven't put a lot of time into it, is how to get to the DT cards from the PECOTA cards. Are those still around?

Is the beta of each projection gone forever?

Hi Dave,
Can you comment a bit on Strasburg's PECOTA card? How confident are you in PECOTA's ability to project such a once-in-a-generation pitching prospect?

I noticed that for quite a few players, the list of comparables is partly superimposed over the comments from past issues of the book -- makes it hard to read. Wow, though, lotsa good stuff here.

From a very interesting Strasburg debate over at "The Book:"

"Lincecum’s 90% forecast divided by his 10% forecast: 71%

Carpenter: 81%

Arroyo: 81%

Strasburg: 75%

And there ladies and gentlemen is why I say the PECOTA percentile forecasts are irrelevant.

1. How in the world is the range of Strasburg’s forecast the same as established stars? It’s impossible. We know less about him, and so the uncertainty of his forecast must be wider.

2. He has only a 10% chance to post a better than 3.94 ERA?

This all goes back to the way Nate does his comparables. What Nate does is that he looks ONLY at rate stats. And so, he would take Strasburg’s MLE rate stats, looks at comparable pitchers based on rate stats, and then looks at those pitcher’s observed ERA, and use that as the range.

This is 100% wrong."

Care to comment?

Dave - Are you guys going to offer further commentary on the most "interesting" PECOTA projections? The ones that you least agree with? The ones that others might disagree with but you think are on track?

There may be something amiss with Aardsma's card. The 90% calls for 105 innings pitched, and his 10% calls for 57! Not sure if PECOTA is "allowed" to stretch a player that far out, given his role. Not sure he should be envisioned in a Hughes/Gio/Tejeda role.

I was wondering, is there a specific page to report missing Pecota Player Cards? Dustin Ackley was in the Baseball Prospectus book, but I don't see a card for him. Thanks, I am greatly enjoying looking through the new pitcher cards!!

There seems to be something very off about the GB%, the chart, and how GB% is projected over the next several years. Look no further than the O's Britton, Bergesen, and Arrieta for examples,

Sorry to point out something that doesn't look right. I'm really excited about the other 99% of it.

Looks like Britton is on track for a Cy Young season in 2025 at age 37 according to PECOTA, aided by his .100 BABIP. By the time he is 42 or 43, he should go a whole season without allowing a hit. What's the problem ?

Sorry for the snark, but the 10 year projections still look like rubbish to me. Can someone(from BP) explain the relationship between Avg and EqAvg in the 10 Year Projections. I'm looking at Adam Jones and I see for 2010 a projected Avg of .293 and an EqAvg of .282. Ok, fine. But in 2011, his Avg is .279 and his EqAvg is .280 ? What is going to change in MLB between now and next year that would cause a 14 point drop in batting average to only move an EqAvg 2 points ? Felix Pie is even worse. His batting average falls 14 points from 2010 to 2011, yet his EqAvg rises 3 points ?!?!

What's the deal with aging ? Adam Jones shows a steep decline in his TAv at age 33. Nolan Reimold makes it to 35 until he suffers a similar drop. Really ? Two players, one establishes himself in MLB at age 22, the other at age 26, the younger one is by all accounts a better athlete, plays a tougher defensive position, yet he'll be the one who declines first ?

Also, no one from BP has addressed the Phillpe Aumont projection. How exactly does a guys serve up a .300 BABIP for 5 years with a > 50% GB rate, then drop his GB rate ~30% and drop his BABIP to .200 for the next 5 years ? That is the most remarkable projection for a player I've ever seen. When the 10 year projections are run, is a new list of comps generated for each projected year, or do you use the 2010 comps only and see what they did over the next 10 years ? It seems like the latter is what is being done, and I would argue that is wrong, or at least not optimal.

We can't all be as smart as you though. If BP can only sell to those smart enough to understand it(like you) it's not going to be much of a business. Perhaps they could broaden their appeal to the cognitively challenged, like myself, by publishing projections that actually made sense, and didn't include historically unprecedented discontinuities in player performance. Of course if they did, there wouldn't be any need for your pontifications, but such is the cost of progress I suppose.