Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 18

Rk	Team	Overall W-L	Week W-L	Trend	Comment
1	Cardinals	94-56	3-3		The champagne corks pop–at Wrigley, no less–as the Cardinals claim their sixth NL Central title in Tony LaRussa’s 10 years at the helm. Let the healing begin; with several key players nursing injuries or rusty from stints on the DL, LaRussa’s got time to let everybody rest or tune up as needed before the October dance. That goes doubly for Chris Carpenter, who allowed eight runs in 10 1/3 innings on the week; the Cy Young Award may be nice, but a ring is more important.
2	Indians	87-62	5-1		By winning 12 out of 13 as the White Sox have stumbled, the Indians have not only seized control of the wild-card race, they’ve brought the AL Central title back into play. Our Postseason Odds report shows the Tribe with an 87.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. They’ve outscored opponents 82-39 on the month, and outhomered them 30-8, with Coco Crisp (.413/.439/.698 with four homers) and Grady Sizemore (.305/.397/.627 with five homers) leading the way.
3	Yankees	85-63	5-1		This weeks’ Platinum Pole Vault winner for rising five spots, not easy to do this time of year. Reeled off six straight wins by scores as varied as 1-0 and 17-3, scoring 49 runs on the week and cutting the Red Sox’s AL East lead in half. Alex Rodriguez homered three times to maintain the AL lead with 44; he leads David Ortiz by one in that department and more importantly by 16.6 runs worth of VORP–and that’s without even picking up the leather. But the biggest bat on the Yanks right now is Robinson Cano, hitting .446/.466/.768 on the month with 12 extra-base hits.
4	Athletics	82-67	3-4		Just 7-10 on the month while hitting .244/.304/.365, and though they remain in the Angels’ rearview mirrors, their fallback wild-card chances are asymptotically approaching zero. While the pitching as a whole hasn’t been awful lately, Barry Zito has, allowing 15 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings this month while facing the kind of high-caliber offenses he’d see in October. Bobby Crosby may return this week, albeit at less than 100%, but there’s less optimism to be had about Rich Harden‘s situation.
5	Red Sox	87-62	4-3		Gabe Kapler ruptures his Achilles rounding the bases on a home run, invoking the rarely-used courtesy runner rule. Kapler’s injury comes on the heels (sorry) of Johnny Damon missing a few games with a bruised rotator cuff. Meanwhile, Matt Clement gets knocked around in two starts, allowing 13 runs in 7 1/3 innings. Only a monster five-homer week–with two game-winners–from David Ortiz lets the Sox maintain some breathing room ahead of the Yankees.
6	White Sox	90-58	3-3		Their once-unassailable 15-game lead is now down to 3 1/2, with six against the Indians–starting with a trio in Chicago this week–yet to play. Damaso Marte returns, having distinguished between having a pain in the neck and being one, while Freddy Garcia may have a sore arm, and Orlando Hernandez, by allowing 17 earned runs in his last 17 innings, might be dropped from the rotation in favor of Brandon McCarthy.
7	Angels	84-65	3-4		Not even a jammed left shoulder–the same one that sidelined him in May–can stop Vladimir Guerrero as he goes 5-for-12 while listed as “day to day.” Jarrod Washburn isn’t so lucky; a sore left forearm has sidelined him, but with Kelvim Escobar having allowed just two runs in eight relief innings while striking out nine since returning from the DL, the team’s depth may buy them some time. Percentage point winners (losers?) of this week’s Golden Anvil award, dropping .009 points in the Hit List Factor.
8	Braves	85-65	2-5		Though Andruw Jones topped 50 homers, the Braves are showing cracks in their armor as they’ve lost two series to division rivals. Mike Hampton is headed for Tommy John surgery and won’t return until 2007, but don’t believe any retirement talk; he’s still got a minimum of $49 million left on that insane contract through 2009. John Smoltz is dealing with tightness in his shoulder. Smoltz is second in the majors with 223 2/3 innings pitched in his first year back in the rotation. How much gas will he have left in October?
9	Astros	81-68	5-2		An emotional week finds Roger Clemens returning to form on the day of his mother’s passing, Craig Biggio‘s mother rescheduling her open-heart surgery to coincide with the team’s off day, and Jeff Bagwell stroking a game-winning single in just his third appearance since being activated from the DL. Through it all, the ‘Stros keep winning; they lead the wild-card race by 1 1/2 games and show a 65.2 percent chance of bringing it home.
10	Phillies	80-70	5-2		A strong week climaxed by an improbable 10-run ninth-inning rally keeps the Phils in the wild-card hunt, but Sunday’s loss cut their odds of taking that prize from 37.7 percent to 23.9. Jimmy Rollins is riding a 24-game hit streak in which he’s batting .364/.420/.561, and he has six three-hit games in his last 11. Ryan Howard is hitting .300/.354/.733 with seven homers on the month; he holds a 0.1 run edge over Jeff Francoeur in VORP among NL rookies.
11	Mets	73-76	2-4		Sure, now they can beat the Braves, now that their Postseason Odds are below 0.1 percent. Braden Looper‘s blown save to seal a sweep by the Nats highlights another area where Willie Randoph has managed the team right out of the race. Looper’s seven blown saves are accompanied by a meager 0.1 Adjusted Runs Prevented and .165 Reliever Expected Wins Added, while Aaron Heilman comes in at 17.5 and .865 and Roberto Hernandez a team-leading 22.6 and 2.032. Either–or both–should have gotten more high-leverage innings at Looper’s expense. And what’s with the drop in Looper’s K/BB from 3.75 in 2004 to 1.28 this year? Rick Peterson, what would you say you do here?
12	Rangers	75-75	5-2		They’re not going to win anything, but an 18-9 run has brought the Rangers back to .500; with nine games left against the A’s and Angels, they’ll have a major say in who wins the West. Josh Rupe becomes the ninth Ranger rookie pitcher and 30th Ranger overall (matching last year’s club record) to take the hill this year, In his debut, he bests fellow rookie Felix Hernandez.
13	Twins	76-72	3-3		After an outing in which he allowed the Indians’ juggernaut to hit for the cycle on his first nine pitches, Carlos Silva is done for the year, facing surgery to repair a torn meniscus of his right knee. Considering that he hurt the knee in his first start, his nine walks in 188 1/3 innings (0.43 BB/9, seventh-best in history), is all the more impressive. In his stead, the team gets to take a good look at Francisco Liriano, who acquitted himself well in a losing cause in his first big league start.
14	Cubs	74-75	3-3		Greg Maddux will get an extra start in an attempt to get him to 15 wins for the 18th consecutive season, while Aramis Ramirez and Jerry Hairston Jr. are headed in the opposite directon: done for the year. Derrek Lee still has plenty to play for–a batting title, the EqA and VORP leads, and an MVP award, though his chances for winning are about as narrow as Dusty Baker’s (choose one: toothpick/conception of how to build a batting order/chances of giving a rookie significant playing time/odds of getting out of this job with his reputation intact).
15	Blue Jays	73-75	2-4		Despite a hot week (.360/.407/.640), Vernon Wells appears headed for a disappointing season in the viciniity of his 25th percentile PECOTA projection (.265/.319/.453/.264 EqA/13.4 VORP/13.25 AB per UIBB). Actual: .273/.320/.473/.263 EqA/27.5 VORP/14.53 AB per UIBB. Close enough for government work. Speaking of disappointments, rookie infielder Aaron Hill has fallen off the table, hitting just .197/.272/.289 in the second half after a blazing .337/.393/.476 first half.
16	Marlins	79-71	3-4		The One That Got Away: Dontrelle Willis had shut down the Phillies on three hits through eight innings, throwing 109 pitches. With a 2-0 lead, manager Jack McKeon chose to send Willis back out rather than turn the ball over to Todd Jones, who hadn’t blown a save in 28 chances, who had allowed just one run since July 18, who was near the top in both Reliever Expected Wins Added and Adjusted Runs Prevented. A hit, a walk, and an error later Willis was gone, the lead cut in half. Jones was summoned but things went horribly wrong; nine pitches later it was 6-2, and by the time the dust settled 10 runs had scored. When the Marlins come up short in the wild-card hunt, they’ll remember this one.
17	Brewers	73-76	2-4		They got back to .500, but for the fifth time since late May, they couldn’t make it stick, losing their next game. This one came when Ned Yost failed to use Derrick Turnbow, who’s fourth in the league in Reliever Expected Wins Added, and instead let Dana Eveland (who?) pitch to Jeff Bagwell, who stroked a game-winning single. Still, 81 wins isn’t out of sight, not when the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents–not including the Cardinals, who have already clinched–is .456.
18	Padres	74-74	3-3		He took the loss on Friday, but Jake Peavy was pain free and should be available down the stretch for the Pads, given enough TLC and rest. Pedro Astacio returned from a strained quad to stymie the Nationals on Sunday, but then facing that weak offense in PETCO is as close to shooting fish in a barrel as the National League allows.
19	Orioles	70-78	3-3		Well, they have to play 162 games, the crabcakes are good, and maybe Boog Powell will drop by to man his barbecue. But that hardly explains why Rafael Palmeiro would return for the final homestand, unless it’s to distract people from Sammy Sosa‘s absence and the continued losing (not a bad idea, actuallly). At least Chris Gomez will return; utilitymen who can hit .337/.421/.424 aganst lefties are worth re-upping.
20	Nationals	77-73	4-2		Just as four straight wins propelled them back to the outskirts of the wild-card race, a pair of late-inning losses to the Padres has dropped their chances of winning from 5.6 percent to 1.3. The good news–if there is any–is that Cristian Guzman is en fuego. No, Christina Kahrl didn’t douse him with gasoline and toss a book of matches in his general direction; he’s actually hitting .340/.396/.596 since August 31, helping Frank Robinson to justify keeping Ryan Zimmerman (6-for-16 with four doubles) on the bench. Karma, blind chickens finding kernels of corn, regression to the mean, circle of life, small sample size, whatever explanation it takes to get you through the week applies here.
21	Tigers	67-81	2-5		The news that Troy Percival won’t need surgery is about as good as it gets for a team that’s lost 19 out of 25. As a team, the Tigers are hitting .241/.289/.389 this month, with Ivan Rodriguez (.189/.218/.264) and Brandon Inge particularly stinking up the joint (.185/.217/.385). One bright spot lately has been 24-year-old rookie centerfielder Curtis Granderson, who’s hitting .318/.354/.570 with six homers, including an inside-the-park job on Thursday. Considering the combined .256/.301/.352 performance they’ve gotten from Nook Logan and Craig Monroe in that position, the question becomes, what took them so long?
22	Reds	69-80	3-4		A collision knocks Sean Casey into next week, and the Pirates offense does the same to Eric Milton. Not all of the Reds pitchers are getting so roughed up; Ramon Ortiz has put together a good second half (3.55 ERA and just eight homers allowed in 76 innings) after an awful first (6.35 and 20 dingers in 79 1/3 innings), Brandon Claussen has allowed just a 2.29 ERA over his last eight starts (51 innings), and Aaron Harang is now 12th in the league in VORP with 41.3.
23	Mariners	64-85	3-4		Stin-King? Felix Hernandez endures his second bad start in a row, yielding five runs in 3+ innings in Texas (maybe Mark Buehrle was on to something) and showing some bad mechanics. Away from the spotlight, Joel Pineiro has put together a decent month, allowing eight runs in 27 1/3 innings against some pretty good teams.
24	Dodgers	67-82	2-5		Hot Cup of Coffee: rookie third baseman Willy Aybar, #34 on our Top Prospect List, has been scalding as a September callup, hitting .350/.447/.500 in 50 plate appearances. Another rookie coming along nicely is catcher Dioner Navarro, hitting .289/.373/.387 with a 9.3 VORP that dwarfs Jason Phillips‘ paltry 2.1. In injury news–and with this team, there’s always injury news–J.D. Drew will undergo surgeries on his wrist and shoulder, ending his season. With the team 14 games under .500, season-ticket holders might start lining up for operations, too, just to avoid sticking around for the ending.
25	Giants	69-80	5-2		Barry Bonds returns but withholds his 704th homer until his 11th at-bat, while manager Felipe Alou misses golden opportunities to deploy him properly, both by batting him cleanup and by failing to use him to pinch-hit in bases-loaded situations. Jason Schmidt returns from a groin injury (and has some second thoughts about doing so), while Moises Alou has been shelved by one, and a bad hamstring may spell the end of J.T. Snow‘s season.
26	Pirates	61-88	4-3		Mark Redman breaks a finger bunting; he wants to return but the Pirates would rather look at the rookies. Who can blame them? Zach Duke pitches reasonably well in a brief return but takes his first major-league loss, while Paul Maholm shuts down the Reds to lower his ERA to 1.24 after four starts.
27	Devil Rays	62-88	2-4		BP’s #2 Top Prospect Delmon Young lashes out at the Rays for not recalling him, accusing the organization of “being cheap.” Guilty as charged–just ask Lou Piniella before he scoots out the door. But while the Rays don’t need to start Young’s service clock any sooner than necessary, the price of pissing off him at this juncture when that time can be recouped by keeping him in Triple-A an extra month next year (say, until the All-Star Break instead of early June) makes it a wash, only with more acrimony. Anyway, 29 walks overall and a 33/4 K/BB in Triple-A ain’t major league, not even for the Rays. Joining Young for an appropriately tart beverage is B.J. Upton, who’s ticked that the team wants to move him from shortstop after he made 53 errors there this year, and while shortstop Julio Lugo leads the team in VORP.
28	Diamondbacks	67-83	2-4		Scored just 17 runs on the week, which is tough to do at the BOB–unless you’re a Diamondback. This year the team has been outscored 453-306 at home, compared to 371-342 on the road, leaving one to wonder just what park these Snakes are built for. Back to those 17 runs; all but three of them came on homers. Tony Clark had back-to-back two-homer days en route to a .400/.526/1.267 week, while Chad Tracy hit a pair on his way to a .474/.524/.947 performance. The rest of the crew hit just .201/.278/.282. They’d have done better swinging cacti. At each other.
29	Rockies	61-87	4-2		If It Wasn’t For Bad Luck…: it’s been a rough and wretched year for Zach Day–a slow start, a broken wrist, a trade to Colorado, a slow return, and finally a broken thumb on a comebacker from the second pitch of his latest start. His year ends with a 6.85 ERA (and a .333 BABIP) in 47 1/3 innings, a major step down for a player who entered the season with a career 4.01 ERA, albeit one accompanying shaky peripherals. See, kids? That’s what happens when you put the ball in play. In happier news, Brian Fuentes is now atop the Reliever Expected Wins Added leaderboard with 5.845.
30	Royals	48-99	2-4		No question which dog they have in the AL Central hunt, not when they tripped up the White Sox in two out of three, not when they delivered a sweep to the Indians in the form of a Jose Lima start that led to an 8-0 deficit before four innings had ended. Wait a minute–Buddy Bell did start the season as Cleveland’s bench coach, not to mention the seven years’ time he did during the “Mistake on the Lake” era. Hey, for a guy who keeps sending Terrence Long (.278/.318/.380) out there at the expense of prospects because he “gives us a chance to win,” such a scheme would qualify as brilliance by this organization’s standards. Their well-deserved 100th loss awaits.

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday. For more on the Hit List, see this article.