Raising Aces: Passing of the Cy

Stephen Strasburg
We last checked in with Stras at the end of April, as the right-hander had stormed out of the gate and I was quick to proclaim that “the pre-surgery Strasburg is finally back.” Maybe I was over-excited because of the improved mechanics that were on display, or maybe I was wowed by the stellar stuff and dominant numbers, but he has continued his march through the league and I still stand by everything that was written nearly three months ago.

I was admittedly optimistic heading into the campaign, tabbing Stras with my top pick for NL Cy Young when we did our preseason predictions, but so far there is nothing in his resume from 2016 that would temper enthusiasm. He missed a couple of starts due to a neck injury, but he’s essentially kept up the pace in what looks to be his best season as a big leaguer.

Stras got the W yesterday to bring his record to a pristine 13-0, a mark that will get the attention of the old school cadre of voters for the Cy while the new school will be impressed by his 31.4-percent K rate; everyone in school will agree on the quality of his 2.60 ERA this season. The K rate is his highest mark since he was a rookie yet Stras has not lost efficiency, with nearly the same pitches per batter as the last several season but with a longer leash—his average of 104 pitches-per-start this season is much higher than his previous career-best of 97 pitches-per-game.

He has the peripheral stats to back up the won-loss record, and with Clayton Kershaw on the shelf, Jake Arrieta battling some wildness, Jose Fernandez staring down the barrel of an innings cap and Noah Syndergaard dealing with bone chips, suddenly Stras looks like a frontrunner for the NL hardware. The stuff has always been there but the command has not, and Strasburg’s recent ability to locate pitches has made him extremely difficult to hit, resulting in just five hits and two runs allowed in the 21.2 innings since he came off the disabled list.

He is getting late swings on the fastball and ugly hacks on the curve, thanks to his ability to command both pitches on both sides of the strike zone, and his use of a similar tunnel for all of his pitches; hitters are struggling to read Strasburg’s pitches out of hand, so batters are largely left at the mercy of a guessing game where behind every door is a well-located pitch with exceptional heat and spin.

I used to get frustrated with Stras because he would direct his energy along an inefficient path, often falling off to the first-base side or spinning out of control during follow-through as he tried to force the baseball to certain sides of the plate. When at his best, Stras keeps his momentum going forward, toward the target through release point, and he has done that more consistently this season than I have seen since he was a rookie. It’s a bit maddening that he took so long to regain the form of his youth, but now that Stras has found his groove he can finally tap into his considerable potential.

Anthony DeSclafani

The right-hander was counted on by some to be Cincy’s ace this season, which isn’t saying that much on a club with a green pitching staff and no realistic chance at contention this season, but continued injury complications turned what was a delay to his start to the campaign to a two-month hiatus that knocked him out of mind for many fantasy owners. He has been solid since taking the mound, though, spinning six quality starts in seven turns and not giving up more than three earned runs in a game yet this season.

DeSclafani has been succeeding despite facing some tough lineups. The respectable effort from July 6 was against the big-scoring Cubs and the previous outing involved two runs and eight strikeouts over 6.2 innings against the Nationals. Oddly, his one hiccup was an abbreviated outing against the light-hitting Braves. The right-hander has had very steady peripherals over the past three seasons, yielding a high-contact approach that is light on strikeouts and walks but has consistently resulted in more than a hit-per-inning throughout his career.

The slider is a key component to DeSclafani’s approach. It’s a hard pitch with tight spin and late break, most of which is vertical, an aspect that helps to make the pitch effective against left- and right-handed batters. He throws the slider often to everyone, throwing the hard breaker more than 29-percent of the time against both righties and lefties, and he has shown the willingness to throw it in any count.

The slider looks just like the fastball out-of-hand, with late break that helps to disguise the pitch until late in its flight path. He also throws a slower curve which checks in with a low-80s velocity, and combined the two breaking pitches have accounted for 26 of his 37 strikeouts this season as well as more than 42-percent of his total throws overall (as always, PITCHf/x data is from Brooks Baseball).

He brings decent velocity to the table, checking in with an above-average fastball that sits 92-95 mph. He also has a very balanced delivery for the first two-thirds of his motion, but he currently struggles with inconsistent gears of rotation and late spine-tilt. There’s more in the tank, so it will be interesting to see if DeSclafani can take that next step forward in his development.

Dallas Keuchel

These are actually notes from last weekend, as Keuchel started the Astros' final game before the All-Star break. Keuchel was a surprise breakout last season, continuing his steep trajectory of improvement from 2014 with a dominant campaign. He even addressed a suboptimal K rate with a strikeout binge in the second half, taking home the hardware for AL Cy Young and seemingly erasing any doubts as to his skills on the field.

Many foresaw that Keuchel would fall from that peak, but few saw him falling as far as he has, with an ERA of 4.80 that is nearly double his 2.48 mark from last season, though the left-hander has flashed glimpses over his past few starts.

Statistically, Keuchel has watched all of his peripheral stats take a massive step backward this season. The strikeout rate has fallen 3.4 percentage points; the walk rate has risen from 5.6 to 7.2 percent of batters faced; his rate of homers allowed has shot up a full percent and the frequency of extra-base hits allowed has exploded, from the 5.2-percent mark of 2015 to this year’s mark of 8.6 percent. He may have been outplaying his peripherals a bit last year, but Keuchel deserves his fate this season.

So what changed?

Well, he lost 1.5 mph off of his average fastball, and though his 90.5 mph average of last season was nothing to write home about, the fact that he has lost a chunk from that baseline means that batters effectively get a longer look at his stuff before pulling trigger on a swing-decision. His sinker has already resulted in as many homers (six) as it did last year despite half as many sinkers thrown, with double the ISO against. His cutter is also getting smashed this season, with a 673 slugging and .346 ISO against the pitch, a season after those numbers were just .368 and .058, respectively. Perhaps not coincidentally, the cutter has also lost a tick this season when compared to last.

In short, his ability to command the strike zone while invoking subtle movement on his fastball (via sinkers and cutters) has diminished this season, and the lack of pitch command combined with the lower velocity have caused a pitcher who rode the margins of subtlety to unravel.