Raising Aces: Carlos in Charge

The Cleveland Indians retain the slimmest hopes of postseason baseball, but the team could be surprisingly dangerous in October if they happen to get red hot for the final week of regular-season play. The emergence of Corey Kluber has given the Tribe a legitimate ace who can face off against any pitcher in the American League, but the meteoric rise of another pitcher has caught the rest of the league off guard while giving Cleveland a potentially devastating one-two punch at the front of their rotation.

Carlos Carrasco had a rough start to the season. He kicked off the year in the Indians' rotation, but a four-spot of April starts yielded a 6.75 ERA amid a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The team then jettisoned Carrasco to the bullpen, where he thrived for the majority of the summer before Cleveland gave him another opportunity at the start of games. The right-hander did not disappoint; he has strung together a dominant run of pitching over the past six weeks that stands out as the best baseball he has played over the course of his 11-year career in pro baseball.

Carrasco was very effective in Triple-A in 2013, though, much like his first-month performance of 2014, the big league stat-sheet left much to be desired. But the 27-year-old has been on a tear since mid-May, with a 1.44 ERA since the not-so-arbitrary endpoint of May 20th, and he has allowed more than a single run just once in eight starts since rejoining the rotation in early August. His strikeout and walk rates this season have leapfrogged his previous bests by a significant margin, and his K:BB ratio of 4.8 is nearly 50 percent better than any full-season mark he has put up in either the majors or the minors.

His latest start was the best yet: a complete game shutout in Houston in which he allowed just three baserunners and struck out 12 batters. He was incredibly efficient, requiring just 98 pitches to get the 27 outs despite his gaudy strikeout totals, with half of his dozen Ks coming on 0-2 counts and five of those punchouts requiring the minimum three pitches to execute.

Carrasco brings serious velocity, and though his average was 94.8 mph in his April stint as a starter, he upped the ante to over 96 mph throughout the summer and has held there since his return to the rotation. His average fastball velocity of 96.04 as a starter this season ranks seventh in baseball among starting pitchers with at least 400 heaters thrown, and Carrasco is the rare pitcher who has increased his pitch speed as he ages. The right-hander had an average fastball around 93.5 mph from 2009 to 2011, and though Tommy John surgery robbed him of the 2012 campaign, he came back throwing harder than ever last season. He has added another tick this year, averaging nearly 3 mph more on his fastball than he did in his first three seasons in the majors.

The fastball is only half the battle, though, and it was the secondary pitches that generated nearly all of his strikeouts on Wednesday. The slider is especially effective versus like-sided hitters, against whom he goes to the pitch 35 percent of the time, though he increases the frequency of the pitch with two strikes regardless of handedness. He will also drop the slider over the plate for a strike on the first pitch against right-handed bats, a strategy that he employs on 30 percent of his first-pitch offerings when he has the platoon advantage. The slider has been virtually unhittable this season, to the tune of a .110 opponents' batting average and .017 isolated power. It's been his strikeout pitch on 53 of his 121 strikeouts on the year.

His changeup has been nearly as effective, and on Wednesday it was particularly devastating. Thrown with Strasburg-like velocity at 88 to 91 mph, the fast-paced change features late drop as well as arm-side run, and opposing batters have managed just one extra-base hit (a double) against the pitch this season. Carrasco uses it more often against left-handed batters, but he has been known to throw it against anyone once he gets ahead in the count. While not his main punchout pitch, registering a modest 20 strikeouts this season, the change was eliciting weak swings from Houston batters throughout Wednesday's drubbing. Carrasco also mixes in a hard curveball with approximately 10 percent frequency against batters from both sides, and the hammer has been just as effective as the change in 2014.

Mechanics Report Card

Carrasco's report card is very impressive, with above-average marks in every category and a double-plus grade for the most critical score of repetition. He has made significant improvements since last season, and the biggest change has been essentially ditching the windup after his April struggles in the rotation. Instead, the right-hander began to make every pitch from the stretch, preserving his leg lift regardless of the situation on the bases, allowing him to harness a single timing pattern that he uses on every delivery. The result has been the mechanical consistency to repeat his motion on nearly every pitch, bolstering his command throughout ballgames, with the added bonus of greater momentum when pitching with the bases empty.

Ditching the windup has helped Carrasco simplify his motion and minimize any unnecessary movements. The delivery is very well balanced, hampered only by a slight drop after max lift and some lean back during the stride phase. He uses the lower half more effectively to generate kinetic energy, and his impressive stability culminates in plus posture at release point that can hit a 65 grade at peak. His torque is heavy on the hips, with a generous delay after foot strike prior to firing trunk rotation, allowing the hips to rotate such that his belt buckle is nearly facing the plate before he fires the shoulder axis.

The mechanical changes were relatively minor in execution yet have paid massive dividends, allowing Carrasco to establish a profile of stuff and command that solidify his breakout with legitimate improvement. The shape of his career—as well as his season—will likely keep him under the radar, but the Indians have found a legitimate no. 2 starter whose exceptional raw stuff, deep repertoire, and newfound consistency could take the AL Central by storm in the very near future.