Last update: Mon Nov 2 21:16:00 2009 PT
by Clay Davenport
One million trials A Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers to simulate the playoff series. Each game of the series is given a seperate outcome probability, based on the home team, the team's performance during the regular season, and the expected starting pitcher matchup. Since a different sequence of random numbers is used every day, the results may change slightly from one day to the next, even if there was no game and no change in the pitching matchups. DS = Division series CS = Championship Series WS = World Series ---------- November 3 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 83.1039 Lost 8-6, lead series 3-2 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 16.8961 Won 8-6, trail series 3-2 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- November 2 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 92.3029 Won 7-4, lead series 3-1 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 7.6971 Lost 7-4, trail series 3-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- November 1 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 72.4258 Won 8-5, lead series 2-1 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 27.5742 Lost 8-5, trail series 2-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 30 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 53.9368 Won 3-1, series tied 1-1 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 46.0632 Lost 3-1, series tied 1-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 29 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 40.6976 Lost 6-1, trail series 1-0 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 59.3024 Won 6-1, lead series 1-0 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 One game, and the odds completely reverse from before. ---------- October 24 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 100.0000 59.8706 Won 5-2, win series 4-2 LAA 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 5-2, lose series 4-2 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 40.1294 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Down to two now, the Yankees (who started the playoffs with the top WS winning chances, at 25%) against the Phillies (who started with the second-best chance, 19%). The program sees this matchup as a definite edge for the Yankees; if the two teams were evenly matched (on a neutral field), the system would have the AL win 51.2% of the time thanks to the home field advantage. ---------- October 23 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 89.1826 50.8604 Lost 7-6, lead series 3-2 LAA 100.0000 10.8174 3.7382 Won 7-6, trail series 3-2 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 45.4014 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 22 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 94.4369 54.0581 Lead 3-1 LAA 100.0000 5.5631 1.7881 Trail 3-1 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 10-4, lose series 4-1 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 44.1538 Won 10-4, win series 4-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 21 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 94.4627 51.1317 Won 10-1, lead series 3-1 LAA 100.0000 5.5373 1.6164 Lost 10-1, trail series 3-1 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 14.9366 7.4682 Trail 3-1 PHI 100.0000 85.0634 39.7837 Lead 3-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 20 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 83.2574 47.1771 Lost 5-4, lead series 2-1 LAA 100.0000 16.7426 5.5495 Won 5-4, trail series 2-1 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 14.9567 7.5208 Lost 5-4, trail series 3-1 PHI 100.0000 85.0433 39.7526 Won 5-4, lead series 3-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 19 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 91.8906 53.6776 Lead series 2-0 LAA 100.0000 8.1094 2.7337 Trail series 2-0 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 33.1559 15.0744 Lost 11-0, trail series 2-1 PHI 100.0000 66.8441 28.5143 Won 11-0, lead series 2-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 18 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 91.8954 52.9790 Won 4-3, lead series 2-0 LAA 100.0000 8.1046 2.6793 Lost 4-3, trail series 2-0 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 56.8402 25.5040 PHI 100.0000 43.1598 18.8377 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 17 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 84.5322 48.1404 Won 4-1, lead series 1-0 LAA 100.0000 15.4678 5.1805 Lost 4-1, trail series 1-0 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 56.7140 26.6841 Won 2-1, series tied 1-1 PHI 100.0000 43.2860 19.9950 Lost 2-1, series tied 1-1 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 16 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 73.4041 41.3062 LAA 100.0000 26.5959 8.5171 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 40.1882 20.4479 Lost 8-6, trail series 1-0 PHI 100.0000 59.8118 29.7288 Won 8-6, lead series 1-0 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 October 15 Fixing the problems in the report made one set of changes, but there were some big changes in the expected rotations for the upcoming series, especially from the Dodgers. Let's juggle the rotations to get them on track and rerun: ---------- October 15 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 100.0000 73.3407 40.5576 LAA 100.0000 26.6593 8.3020 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 54.8906 28.4120 PHI 100.0000 45.1094 22.7284 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 And we see that the changes do make a slight plus to the Dodger chances. ---------- October 13--------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 100.0000 70.4483 38.7487 NYY 100.0000 73.3199 41.8128 LAA 100.0000 29.5517 12.3033 LAA 100.0000 26.6801 8.7434 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 32.3828 12.8439 LAD 100.0000 53.8114 27.1261 PHI 100.0000 67.6172 36.1041 Won 5-4, won series 3-1 PHI 100.0000 46.1886 22.3177 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 5-4, lost series 3-1 COL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 12--------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 100.0000 68.1639 39.0222 Won 4-1, won series 3-0 NYY 100.0000 74.9886 42.9263 LAA 100.0000 31.8361 13.3012 Won 7-6, won series 3-0 LAA 100.0000 25.0114 8.3072 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 4-1, lost series 3-0 MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 7-6, lost series 3-0 BOS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAD 100.0000 37.4436 15.3286 LAD 100.0000 55.1538 27.9587 PHI 82.9005 54.7477 29.3988 Won 6-5, lead series 2-1 PHI 79.3300 37.3203 18.3431 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 17.0995 7.8087 2.9492 Lost 6-5, trail series 2-1 COL 20.6700 7.5259 2.4647 ---------- October 11 -------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 92.6647 58.1206 34.4743 off NYY 92.5264 65.0602 37.9052 LAA 69.8931 22.2031 9.2101 off LAA 77.1235 21.3750 7.3265 MIN 7.3353 4.0592 1.9216 off MIN 7.4736 4.1509 1.7760 BOS 30.1069 15.6171 9.8780 off BOS 22.8765 9.4139 4.8094 LAD 100.0000 38.5782 14.7255 Won 5-1, win series 3-0 LAD 100.0000 53.9241 27.5804 PHI 66.5892 43.9911 23.7218 Snowed out PHI 60.5570 30.1650 15.1425 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 5-1, lose series 3-0 STL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 33.4108 17.4307 6.0687 Snowed out COL 39.4430 15.9109 5.4600 The Dodgers advance to the League Championship Series, sweeping the Cardinals out the door. The Phillies' odds went up from yesterday because the extra off day allowed them to change their rotation, moving Happ ahead of Martinez and they may get through the series throwing nothing but left-handers at the Rockies. The probability program sees those as pluses - Happ did have a better year than Martinez, and the Rockies had a large right/left split. ---------- October 10 -------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 92.6748 57.9829 34.6599 Won 4-3, lead series 2-0 NYY 92.5745 64.9976 38.4642 LAA 69.8777 22.2550 8.8603 Won 4-1, lead series 2-0 LAA 77.0923 21.3827 7.5401 MIN 7.3252 4.0966 2.1401 Lost 4-3, trail series 2-0 MIN 7.4255 4.1340 1.7794 BOS 30.1223 15.6655 10.3969 Lost 4-1, trail series 2-0 BOS 22.9077 9.4857 4.8998 LAD 81.3070 33.1473 12.4547 Lead series 2-0 LAD 85.8538 47.7481 24.0881 PHI 58.4812 37.3523 19.8672 Series tied 1-1 PHI 60.6539 30.4327 15.2264 STL 18.6930 9.9614 4.8712 Trail series 2-0 STL 14.1462 6.9493 2.8891 COL 41.5188 19.5390 6.7497 Series tied 1-1 COL 39.3461 14.8699 5.1129 ---------- October 9 --------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 76.5668 43.7226 26.1101 NYY 78.4914 53.0980 31.1816 LAA 49.5776 17.1383 6.8399 Won 5-0, lead series 1-0 LAA 57.7154 17.1561 6.0873 MIN 23.4332 11.4097 6.0362 MIN 21.5086 10.9075 4.7219 BOS 50.4224 27.7294 18.2335 Lost 5-0, trail series 1-0 BOS 42.2846 18.8384 9.6783 LAD 81.2747 33.0477 11.9567 Won 3-2, lead series 2-0 LAD 85.8808 47.6705 24.3111 PHI 58.3693 37.2886 19.7899 Lost 5-4, series tied 1-1 PHI 60.5134 30.3624 15.5655 STL 18.7253 9.9713 4.5430 Lost 3-2, trail series 2-0 STL 14.1192 6.9770 3.0769 COL 41.6307 19.6924 6.4907 Won 5-4, series tied 1-1 COL 39.4866 14.9901 5.3774 ---------- October 8 --------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 76.4782 41.3660 23.3075 Won 7-2, lead series 1-0 NYY 78.5419 51.6335 30.2501 LAA 30.7496 10.1943 3.9305 LAA 36.8129 10.5572 3.7942 MIN 23.5218 11.2200 5.4607 Lost 7-2, trail series 1-0 MIN 21.4581 10.5906 4.5799 BOS 69.2504 37.2197 23.9328 BOS 63.1871 27.2187 14.3653 LAD 63.2851 24.9556 8.2036 Won 5-3, lead series 1-0 LAD 69.4451 39.2790 19.1040 PHI 82.6871 47.2252 24.5547 Won 5-1, lead series 1-0 PHI 79.8955 40.1132 19.7429 STL 36.7149 20.1920 8.3398 Lost 5-3, trail series 1-0 STL 30.5549 13.5848 5.7658 COL 17.3129 7.6272 2.2704 Lost 5-1, trail series 1-0 COL 20.1045 7.0230 2.3978 Problem identified on 10/16 - I used the pitchers' DERAs in setting up the probabilities for each game, which meant that the entire fielding component was removed. I also chose a poor measure for how they'd match up wit left- or right-handed pitching. Fixing the defense problem and re-running the stats from the beginning makes a big difference for the Red Sox (losing a quarter of their WS chance, thanks to their worst in the playoffs -40 fielding rating), strong gains for the Dodgers (best in playoffs +52 defense), and a gain for the NL generally. The four NL teams combined to go +132 in defense, while the AL teams were -73. ---------- October 7 --------------------- Should have said Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday Win DS Win CS Win WS NYY 64.1849 33.5533 18.8306 NYY 64.2310 41.2631 24.9565 LAA 30.8895 10.6555 3.9312 LAA 36.7417 11.9532 4.3521 MIN 35.8151 16.0459 7.9618 MIN 35.7690 17.0271 7.3031 BOS 69.1105 39.7453 25.8459 BOS 63.2583 29.7566 15.5695 LAD 39.9092 16.7332 5.6037 LAD 45.2443 26.1454 13.1876 PHI 70.3461 39.1552 20.4572 PHI 65.9766 37.0320 18.6149 STL 60.0908 30.7627 13.4550 STL 54.7557 24.9587 11.7806 COL 29.6539 13.3489 3.9146 COL 34.0234 11.8639 4.2357
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