Body: Bigger build, medium frame, mature for age, power through legs; soft body core, already has maintenance weight through legs and middle; Tommy John in May 2014.
Mechanics: Simple mechanics, toe-touch and pause early in delivery; gets extension with front foot; short and relatively clean arm action, medium-to-high three-quarter slot, above-average arm strength, finishes out front; hugs first-base side of rubber from stretch, extremely quick, get-and-go out of the stretch (0.9), holds runners
Fills the zone, aggressive attacking inside; had a game plan with the pitch and stuck to it; present above-average command, plus projection; heavy pitch, plus life, plus running action bores in on same-handed hitters, some sink; ground ball pitch with some downhill action, misses barrels; late life gives it margin for error, sat 89-92, touching 93 multiple times; velo dipped late in start to 86-90; projection for a couple additional ticks of velo if he commits to core conditioning
Struggled with early feel, found it along the way; 10/5 shape, two-plane movement, quality bite and depth, gets downhill with it; fringe-average present command, projection to future average command, will attack righties down and in; has trouble with feel at times, showed poise to regain pitch amidst adversity; plays down at present due to inconsistent shape and fringe-average command, average future projection due to tight rotation, two-plane depth, and overall command profile
A 38th-round draft pick in 2014, Ferguson comes with considerable risk given past Tommy John surgery. The body is also risky, with a soft core and legs. It's not impeding him at the moment, and there is power there to tap into, but it will require maintenance and conditioning as he ages.
The arsenal is geared around an excellent fastball from the left side with plus life and above-average velocity, and he confidently attacks all four quadrants with it already. The velocity ticked down due to high-stress innings and pitch count, and durability is a concern going forward. Ferguson projects poise and starter-like characteristics, as he shook off three-first-inning-errors en-route to an impressive outing.
He did not employ a changeup in-game, though he showed some feel for the pitch in warmups, and development of that offering will be key to the ultimate profile.