Newsletter: Thursday, August 23, 2012

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: Introducing the latest in the great line of Baseball
Prospectus publications...The Call-Up 2012 e-book! Click for details:
http://bbp.cx/a/17651

MEDIA

BP chat
Jason Parks - BP Chat moderated by Jason Parks. Click
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=957 to join or submit a
question.
08-23 1:00 PM EST

NEW PREMIUM CONTENT

Prospects Will Break Your Heart
I've (Also) Been Thinking About...

by Jason Parks

Jason's been thinking about how some prospects don't lose status by
struggling, while others do.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18110

On the Beat
The Difference-Makers

by John Perrotto

Who do scouts and front-office types pinpoint as the key players for teams who
aren't guaranteed a spot in October?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18091

Prospectus Profile
Bruce Rondon

by Hudson Belinsky

The next hard-throwing right-handed Tigers reliever has made great strides
this season and isn't far from Detroit.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18114

Painting the Black
Broken Romero

by R.J. Anderson

Ricky Romero had a bad start for the ages Tuesday. Are his troubles a simple
matter of confidence?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18112

Future Shock
Raising Draft Stock

by Kevin Goldstein

Thanks to the new draft rules quite a few 2012 draftees are already playing,
and already increasing their stock.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18100

The Platoon Advantage
Plunk Cost

by Bill Parker

Some players get hit by pitches so often that it must be a skill. But is it a
good skill to have?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18102

Daily Hit List
Wednesday, August 22

by Matthew Kory and Sam Miller

Within: Notes on baseball being interesting.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18103

NEW BASIC CONTENT

In A Pickle
A.J. Pierzynski and the Last Thing You Expected

by Jason Wojciechowski

A.J. Pierzynski seems to be doing something unprecedented. Guess what: He is
doing something unprecedented.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18111

BP Unfiltered
Double Double, Arms in Trouble

by Geoff Young

How often has a pitcher issued 10 or more walks and 10 or more strikeouts in
the same game? Not often at all.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18115

What You Need to Know
Thursday, August 23

by Daniel Rathman

Derek Jeter may be getting up in age, but his bat is starting to heat up again
as he climbs the all-time hits chart.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18099

BP Unfiltered
Hit Home Run, Eat Ice Cream

by Ben Lindbergh

The latest inefficiencies exploited by the Rays: ice cream and classical
conditioning.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18109

BP Unfiltered
When Aaron Cook Struck Out Mike Trout

by Ben Lindbergh

The pitcher with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball faced the best hitter
in the big leagues three times. One of those times, the pitcher won.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18105

Tater Trot Tracker
Trot Times for August 21

by Larry Granillo

The tater trots for August 21: Giancarlo Stanton knows how to crush the ball.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18106

BP Unfiltered
If One-Run Games Were All That Mattered

by Ben Lindbergh

What would the standings look like if the only wins that counted were the ones
in one-run games?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18104

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: AUGUST 23

THE WEDNESDAY TAKEAWAY

There are different levels of hot hitting. Level one: collecting 34 hits in 88
at-bats. Level two: going deep in three straight games. Level three: getting
Skip Bayless to imply that something unnatural is fueling your torrid bat.

The White Sox cooled off the Yankees—who had won nine of 12 coming into this
week’s series at U.S. Cellular Field—with a three-game sweep, but they could
not stop Derek Jeter from reaching level three on that rudimentary heat index.
And they certainly did nothing to change Chicago Tribune columnist Phil
Rogers’ mind about the Yankees shortstop being the American League’s most
valuable player.

Jeter, coming off a 3-for-4 outing in Sunday’s win over the Red Sox in the
Bronx, went 6-for-14 on the South Side of Chicago with a double and three home
runs. Through 122 games, nine fewer than his 2011 total of 131, the
38-year-old Jeter has amassed 170 hits—seven more than he had all of last
year—and 13 homers, more than double his 2011 output of six.

The sixth-inning long ball on Wednesday—the only run the Yankees scored off
White Sox starter Chris Sale—marked the 3,257th hit of Jeter’s career, good
for 11th on the all-time list and two better than Eddie Murray’s lifetime
total, which Jeter eclipsed on Tuesday night. Yet even with all those hits and
2,548 major-league games under his belt, Jeter is doing things he’s never done
before.

The club of shortstops that have produced an OPS over 800 and at least 10
homers in their age-38 season is exclusive. In fact, it contains only one
member: Jeter, who has 15 points of OPS to spare over the Yankees’ remaining
38 games.

Jeter dismissed Bayless’ comments before Wednesday’s series finale, quipping
that the host of First Take should take a drug test himself. And, just like
any other player, hot or cold, star or scrub, Jeter is innocent until proven
otherwise. For all we know, he’s getting hitting tips from the assistant to
the traveling secretary.

Jeter has been worth 2.7 WARP to date, his best output since a 3.9 WARP 2009
campaign, which at the time seemed a renaissance, but by 2010 appeared to have
been his last stand. Three years later, Jeter is once again playing like the
“young man” he claimed to be back then.

Jeter is not the most valuable player in the American League. He’s not even
the most valuable player on his own team (Robinson Cano, 3.9 WARP). But one
thing is now certain: Jeter is not done yet.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON THURSDAY

It’s tough to maintain a .500-or-better on-base percentage over the course of
three weeks, but Prince Fielder—thanks in part to four intentional walks—has
done just that, reaching base in 41 of his 82 plate appearances this month.
The 28-year-old first baseman now has a .406 OBP for the season, good for
third in the American League behind Joe Mauer and Mike Trout. Fielder will try
to keep up that pace in this afternoon’s series finale against the Blue Jays
and J.A. Happ. He is 6-for-16 including three doubles in 19 career meetings
with the 29-year-old southpaw, who brings a two-game winning streak—against
the Yankees and Rangers, no less—into Thursday’s duel with Justin Verlander
(1:05 p.m. ET).

***

Tonight’s series finale between the Reds and the Phillies features the first
matchup of the season between pitchers with 30 combined wins. Johnny Cueto,
who at 16-6 is tied for the major-league lead in wins with Gio Gonzalez and
David Price, will lock horns with Cole Hamels, who is tied for sixth in that
category at 14-6. The 26-year-old Cueto has taken home a victory in seven of
his last eight starts and 11 of his last 13, while Hamels is riding a
three-game surge that includes back-to-back complete-game shutouts on Aug. 7
and 13. Hamels is a perfect 7-0 with a 1.44 ERA in nine career starts against
the Reds, while Cueto has sputtered to a 1-2 ledger, a 5.65 ERA, and only nine
total strikeouts in his five tries versus the Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).

***

The A’s are on their way to Tampa Bay for an American League wild card
showdown with the Rays, but Bob Melvin’s team is traveling a bit lighter,
because Bartolo Colon—who was scheduled to start Thursday’s series
opener—received a 50-game ban after testing positive for testosterone. Tyson
Ross, who last pitched in the majors on June 28, will take Colon’s place in
the rotation for now, after logging a 2.74 ERA and 62-to-28 K/BB in 75 2/3
innings for Triple-A Sacramento. Tampa Bay will counter with Alex Cobb, who
earned a win over the A’s with seven innings of one-run ball on Aug. 1, but
was thumped for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings at Angel Stadium on Saturday
(7:10 p.m. ET).

***

How do you complete a sweep in which your division rivals trail every time
they come to bat? Well, 20 2/3 innings of two-run ball from your starting
pitchers is a good first step. But you also need a 4-for-7 effort from your
scrap-heap shortstop and a catch like this from your minor-league veteran left
fielder. And, with two of your best hitters out of the lineup—one with a
steroid suspension, the other nursing a tight hamstring—having your
number-one, -two, and -three hitters combine to go 16-for-34 doesn’t hurt
either. The Giants, who now enjoy a 2 ½-game lead over the Dodgers in the
National League West, will try to ride the momentum from their sweep at Chavez
Ravine into their four-game set with the Braves at AT&T Park (10:15 p.m. ET).

PODCASTS

EFFECTIVELY WILD, THE DAILY BP PODCAST - EPISODE 27: REVISITING THE DAN HAREN
TRADE
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18113

BP PODCAST EPISODE 101: LET'S NOT EVEN TRY
After our big celebration for Episode 100, we're back to normality, or at
least as normal as the show gets. We talk about the Manny Machado call-up,
some prospects that we are higher or lower than most on, and also just what to
make of Austin Wood. Then we try to gauge Mike Trout's value (good luck) and
talk about scouting little league games. Our special guest is a good friend of
the show in Andy McCullough of the Newark Star-Ledger who talks about the
future of the Mets, and then our listener of the week is the amazing Craig
Robinson, better known to many of you as the Flip Flop Flyin' guy. From there
it's the goofy stuff with a tribute to the late, great Juan Deli, and some
talk about weird neighbors ... and mattresses.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17979

BP FANTASY PODCAST EPISODE 16: IT IS NOT ALL LUCK
Jason and Paul begin with the pitchers, hitting on Mike Fiers and Chad
Billingsley among starters, and then moving on to discuss Jeremy Affeldt's
value in the Giants' new closer-by-committee bullpen arrangement.
Recently-promoted rookies, Manny Machado and Starling Marte, highlight the
hitters discussed in the second hour. All that and much more at the link
below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17978

ANNOUNCEMENTS

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2012 APP NOW AVAILABLE
At long last, the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual app is now available for the
iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Follow your favorite MLB teams and players
throughout the season with Baseball Prospectus analysis that includes team
overviews, player assessments, detailed stats, and 2012 projections for over
2000 players. All of that and more for just $4.99 if you purchase it in the
next two weeks. For more information and to access the download page, click
the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16776

BALLPARK EVENT TICKETS NOW ON SALE
Join your favorite BP writers and industry insiders at our upcoming ballpark
events. For more information and to purchase tickets, click the links below.
September 15 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles: http://bbp.cx/a/18042

BROOKS BASEBALL AT BP
The outstanding PITCHf/x work of Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and co. is now
available through BP. For more details on the integration of Brooks Baseball,
see the post by Joe Hamrahi linked below:
bbp.cx/a/17621

SUBMIT A QUESTION TO THE RESEARCH MAILBAG
Got a burning baseball question you want answered? Submit it via email to
Bradley Ankrom (bankrom@baseballprospectus.com) and we'll do our best to find
the answer. Our research staff will select its favorite questions from the
batch and feature them in the mailbag the following week.

PLAYOFF ODDS AVAILABLE DAILY
The season is underway, and our playoff odds report is now updated to account
for the double wild card. Check it out here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS ON FACEBOOK
Check out the Baseball Prospectus page on Facebook
at:
http://www.facebook.com/baseballprospectus

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS TWITTER FEED
Stay up to date on the latest articles, events, chats, authors and stats by
following @BaseballPro ( http://www.twitter.com/BaseballPro ) on Twitter for
updates throughout the day.

FOLLOW BP CONTRIBUTORS ON TWITTER
R.J. Anderson @r_j_anderson (http://www.twitter.com/r_j_anderson)
Cee Angi @ceeangi (http://www.twitter.com/ceeangi)
Bradley Ankrom @bradleyankrom (http://www.twitter.com/bradleyankrom)
Stephani Bee @StephBee118 (http://www.twitter.com/StephBee118)
Tommy Bennett @tommy_bennett (http://www.twitter.com/tommy_bennett)
Jonathan Bernhardt @jonbernhardt (http://www.twitter.com/jonbernhardt)
Dan Brooks @brooksbaseball (http://www.twitter.com/brooksbaseball)
Craig Brown @RoyalsAuthority (http://www.twitter.com/RoyalsAuthority)
Maury Brown @BizBallMaury (http://www.twitter.com/BizBallMaury)
Russell A. Carleton @pizzacutter4 (http://www.twitter.com/pizzacutter4)
Derek Carty @DerekCarty (http://www.twitter.com/DerekCarty)
Jason Collette @jasoncollette (http://www.twitter.com/jasoncollette)
Corey Dawkins @CoreyDawkinsBP (http://www.twitter.com/CoreyDawkinsBP)
Bradford Doolittle @bbdoolittle (http://www.twitter.com/bbdoolittle)
Jeff Euston @JeffEuston (http://www.twitter.com/JeffEuston)
Dan Evans @DanEvans108 (http://www.twitter.com/DanEvans108)
Ken Funck @KenFunck (http://www.twitter.com/KenFunck)
Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein (http://www.twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein)
Larry Granillo @wezen_ball (http://www.twitter.com/wezen_ball)
Joe Hamrahi @jhamrahi (http://www.twitter.com/jhamrahi)
Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe (http://www.twitter.com/jay_jaffe)
Matthew Kory @mattymatty2000 (http://www.twitter.com/mattymatty2000)
Ben Lindbergh @ben_lindbergh (http://www.twitter.com/ben_lindbergh)
Max Marchi @MarchiMax (http://www.twitter.com/MarchiMax)
Rob McQuown @robmcquown (http://www.twitter.com/robmcquown)
Dan Mennella @DanMennella (http://www.twitter.com/DanMennella)
Ian Miller @productiveouts (http://www.twitter.com/productiveouts)
Sam Miller @SamMillerBP (http://www.twitter.com/SamMillerBP)
Bill Parker @Bill_TPA (http://www.twitter.com/Bill_TPA)
Jason Parks @ProfessorParks (http://www.twitter.com/ProfessorParks)
Harry Pavlidis @harrypav (http://www.twitter.com/harrypav)
Dave Pease @davepease (http://www.twitter.com/davepease)
John Perrotto @jperrotto (http://www.twitter.com/jperrotto)
Daniel Rathman @danielrathman (http://www.twitter.com/danielrathman)
Josh Shepardson @BChad50 (http://www.twitter.com/BChad50)
Paul Singman @pauliesings (http://www.twitter.com/pauliesings)
Adam Sobsey @sobsey (http://www.twitter.com/sobsey)
Paul Sporer @sporer (http://www.twitter.com/sporer)
Michael Street @MichaelWStreet (http://www.twitter.com/MichaelWStreet)
Doug Thorburn @doug_thorburn (http://www.twitter.com/doug_thorburn)
Dan Turkenkopf @dturkenk (http://www.twitter.com/dturkenk)
Jason Wojciechowski @jlwoj (http://www.twitter.com/jlwoj)
Colin Wyers @cwyers (http://www.twitter.com/cwyers)
Geoff Young @ducksnorts (http://www.twitter.com/ducksnorts)