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Prospectus Hit List for September 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 23 Hit List for September 25
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The last Tuesday Hit List of the year.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

91

66

96.3

103.4

102.2

.626

.644

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Memo to playoff teams: Justin Verlander: six shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, three walks.
2

95

62

97.3

96.8

95.8

.613

.632

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox have mathematically clinched the American League East, but given their last two seasons, if there is any team that could find a way to out-do math and fail anyway, it's the Red Sox.
3

94

63

92.8

92.3

90.1

.588

.607

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The A's are one game behind Boston for the best record, or as it's also known, that thing we forgot as soon as both teams are eliminated in the division series.
4

87

69

82.7

91.5

92.1

.566

.586

0.0%

92.6%

92.6%

2.5%

10.8%

After hitting his walk-off homer, James Loney made his way through high-fiving teammates to the clubhouse and took off his full body costume, whereupon Dan Johnson walked quietly out onto the street and into the night, smiling slightly to himself.
5

85

71

87.0

86.2

85.8

.551

.571

0.0%

42.2%

42.2%

7.2%

-11.6%

Alex Rios hit for the cycle, which he wouldn't have done had Ron Washington not inspired him no no I just can't do this.
6

90

67

92.2

92.8

92.9

.586

.566

13.1%

86.9%

100.0%

0.1%

1.8%

Do the Reds have a Shin-Soo Choo Choo that goes around the field because if not they should definitely build one now.
7

92

64

93.1

91.7

88.2

.585

.565

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The most recent four months of the Evan Gattis Miracle by OPS: .567, .609, .438, .686. Hope Brian McCann's agent isn't reading this.
8

92

65

96.3

89.3

89.1

.584

.564

83.1%

16.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

The Cardinals worst monthly record was accomplished with their second-best monthly run differential. So they've got that going for them. Which is nice.
9

86

70

84.7

82.6

82.8

.538

.558

0.1%

63.3%

63.4%

-9.4%

17.3%

It's gonna blow your mind next March when everybody is writing "fantasy sleeper" columns about Scott Kazmir, 8.9 Ks/9 and 3.4 Ks/BB.
10

90

66

85.0

89.9

87.5

.565

.545

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sign my petition for Vin Scully to come to your office and tell your boss what a doofus he's being!
11

81

75

82.1

79.0

80.3

.517

.537

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-5.9%

First they lose Manny Machado, then they give up a walk-off homer to James Loney. Baseball isn't just hard, it's mean.
12

83

73

83.7

77.0

78.2

.516

.536

0.0%

1.5%

1.5%

0.0%

-6.4%

The Royals are a super-charged 12-cylinder engine and Ned Yost is a set of state-of-the-art ceramic brakes.
13

90

67

83.6

86.7

87.8

.554

.534

3.9%

96.1%

100.0%

0.1%

0.1%

The Pirates clinched a playoff spot. A rumbling can be heard in graveyards throughout the greater Pittsburgh area as just about every dead person rolls over.
14

76

80

78.1

79.4

78.1

.499

.519

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over two seasons the Angels will have received 20 wins from Mike Trout, will have paid him under a million dollars for those wins, and will have finished a combined 21 1/2 games out of first place.
15

84

73

81.9

82.7

80.7

.524

.504

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-2.0%

The Nationals are officially eliminated which means it's about time they brought Teddy Roosevelt in to pitch. #PitchTeddy
16

82

74

76.8

68.8

70.6

.478

.498

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.1%

-4.2%

Now without CC Sabathia for the rest of the season, the Yankees playoff chances are, well, about the same as with C.C. Sabathia.
17

71

85

73.1

70.9

72.8

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point the Blue Jays could acquire Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, and Ted Williams and everyone would go, "What are you doing? All those guys are dead!" So critical!
18

79

77

78.5

76.3

76.0

.497

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Hope the Diamondbacks make another awful trade this offseason so we'll have something fun to discuss for next season's Hit List!
19

68

89

64.8

69.7

69.6

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners hit back-to-back homers in the eighth inning to tie the game. Players who entered the game as a defensive replacement and a pinch-runner hit them. I can't decide if that's great or awful.
20

72

84

70.9

75.5

76.2

.472

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Given that the Giants winning two World Series in three seasons was as unlikely, I'm putting money down on the Giants to win another one this year. You can do it guys! Well, you can't, but you can!
21

70

86

71.9

74.3

76.4

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Gomez came to the plate five times. He struck out four times and homered. Because that's just the kind of player Carlos Gomez is.
22

71

86

74.3

73.8

70.7

.461

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies next solution to the altitude problem is to cover the baseballs with little humidors made of pressurized rubber. We'll see how that works next season.
23

66

90

61.5

65.6

66.1

.415

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins played seven players whose last name starts with "P": Presley, Pinto, Parmelee, Plouffle, Pelfrey, Pressly (a different one), and Perkins. Pretty peculiar!
24

65

92

70.8

73.7

74.4

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs can't get into the playoffs themselves, but at least they helped the Pirates do it. They should raise a flag for that on opening day next year. It can say "YOU'RE WELCOME" in big letters.
25

62

94

65.7

64.6

64.7

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox are last in the American League in walks, but it's not because they don't like walking, it's just because they can't.
26

71

85

71.0

68.6

67.9

.446

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Baseball Prospectus needs to junk PECOTA and come out with DUDA. It wouldn't be nearly as accurate, but it would be far more totally awesome.
27

73

83

67.6

68.2

68.9

.445

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad are the Padres? If you reverse their record they're still not any good.
28

71

85

64.3

64.4

65.9

.426

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a tribute to Roy Halladay, who walked two of three hitters in the first inning before being removed from the game, reliever Luis Garcia walked his first two hitters. Those Phillies stick together.
29

58

99

62.1

59.3

60.0

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton was walked three times for just the third time this season. That just might be the most surprising stat of the season.
30

51

106

55.5

50.4

53.4

.335

.353

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At what point does losing 12-0 become good because it's just one more day closer to being done with this?