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Prospectus Hit List for July 9



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 6 Hit List for July 16
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers at the top, Astros finally at the bottom (where you mentally had them all along)

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

36

49

33.8

35.6

36.1

.416

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Heading into the All-Star break, the Twins lead baseball in many stats, all having to do with lousy pitching.
2

34

53

34.9

35.5

34.4

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Quentin: two official at-bats, two walks, two strikeouts, 22 pitches seen.
3

33

52

34.9

33.8

34.2

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs finished the first 'half' at 33-52. Imagine how the second half will go without Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza.
4

33

53

35.4

34.0

33.8

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With the Cubs' win, the Astros officially have the worst record in baseball. Thanks, 11-23-since-June-1st!
5

33

52

36.4

33.1

32.8

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you reverse the Rockies record, they are the best in the National League. But if you don't, they aren't.
6

41

44

36.5

38.6

38.7

.455

.436

1.2%

4.3%

5.5%

0.8%

-5.9%

The Marlins have lost exactly a quarter (10 of 40) of the games their closer has pitched in.
7

37

47

37.6

36.5

37.2

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Kansas City residents, don't panic: what you are going to be seeing this week is not magic, witchcraft or sorcery. Some players, players in other parts of the country, are simply good at baseball.
8

45

40

38.7

37.3

39.1

.471

.491

0.4%

18.1%

18.5%

4.7%

5.5%

The Orioles are 1) 8-14 since mid-June, 2) still in second place in the AL East, 3) still not taken seriously by anyone north, south, or west of Baltimore. (People east of Baltimore are not people. They are fish.)
9

44

41

39.6

43.6

44.5

.505

.525

13.0%

14.6%

27.6%

-9.4%

-10.6%

Johnny Damon is 242 hits away from 3,000. At this rate he'll reach the milestone in four more teams he's always wanted to play for.
10

36

51

40.3

37.5

38.0

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Seattle used six pitchers against Oakland, the line for each of whom ended with 2/3 of an inning. (Hey, it's the Mariners and I already mentioned King Felix in another team's comment. What, you want more on Ichiro's batting slot?)
11

37

50

40.5

42.5

41.8

.465

.445

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.8%

-3.5%

The Phillies are 14 games behind Washington and 10 out of a playoff spot, but at least they have Ryan Howard and Chase Utley back. In a related story, anyone want to trade for Ryan Howard or Chase Utley?
12

40

45

41.6

41.7

39.9

.480

.460

2.4%

5.9%

8.3%

-1.2%

-6.3%

If things go to plan, on Friday Milwaukee will start Zack Greinke for the third consecutive game. Impressive, but he's got a long way to go to reach "Goats" McDougall, who started 108 consecutive games in 1883 before his right arm fell off, whereupon he started another 76 left-handed.
13

46

40

42.1

43.2

43.4

.508

.488

50.4%

7.9%

58.3%

-5.5%

-20.1%

Tim Lincecum got shelled again. His four-seam fastball has averaged 90.4 mph this season. That's a 1.8 mph drop from last season but only a 0.9 mph drop from two seasons ago. Maybe velocity isn't the heart of his problem.
14

43

43

43.4

41.7

42.2

.495

.515

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

-1.2%

1.6%

Bartolo Colon outpitched Felix Hernandez. That hasn't happened since Hernandez left diapers, and maybe not before that either.
15

45

41

43.4

40.3

41.8

.496

.516

3.1%

26.0%

29.1%

4.7%

9.1%

If you're looking to the key to Fernando Rodney's season, cutting his walk rate by 6.7 walks per nine innings is a good place to start.
16

42

43

43.6

44.4

43.8

.511

.491

22.8%

10.6%

33.5%

9.4%

-5.5%

Is Trevor Bauer that good? Last night he was. Whoa! No! Get your mind out of the gutter!
17

44

42

43.6

44.1

44.8

.513

.533

14.6%

22.0%

36.6%

7.9%

0.8%

Prince Fielder has 15 homers, but if you count in terms of distance, he has 46.
18

47

40

44.7

44.5

43.8

.517

.497

26.8%

11.4%

38.2%

-8.3%

-0.8%

Of the Dodgers' starting lineup, only Elian Herrera began his career with the Dodgers, and he was switched out mid-game for Juan Uribe.
19

46

40

45.1

45.6

45.9

.531

.511

10.2%

16.9%

27.2%

-7.5%

-4.7%

At this rate, Ike Davis will not hit 24 homers and slug .388 on the season because the Mets will replace him.
20

43

43

45.2

42.9

43.9

.509

.529

0.0%

6.7%

6.7%

2.0%

-0.8%

Colby Rasmus has 17 homers, which is far and away more than any other Colby in baseball. In your face, Colby Lewis!
21

46

39

46.1

45.5

46.0

.540

.520

29.9%

37.8%

67.7%

10.6%

17.3%

In 41 2/3 innings, Jair Jurrjens has 18 strikeouts, 15 walks, and one tenuous hold on a rotation spot.
22

48

37

46.2

44.2

43.8

.536

.516

16.5%

33.9%

50.4%

11.0%

28.0%

The Pirates are averaging about 7 1/2 runs a game since mid-June. It's enough to make you think they're scoring on purpose.
23

47

38

47.3

45.8

45.6

.546

.526

54.3%

23.6%

78.0%

4.3%

1.2%

The Reds bullpen is striking out more than 27 per nine innings, which leads baseball.
24

43

43

47.3

48.8

48.2

.545

.564

1.2%

17.3%

18.5%

-1.6%

-29.9%

Despite the unexpected heroics of Quad-A players Pedro Ciriaco and Mauro Gomez, the Red Sox dropped three of four at home to New York. The problem? As always: pitching. Boston allowed 28 runs to New York in 36 innings.
25

48

38

47.9

49.5

49.5

.567

.586

13.8%

69.3%

83.1%

-2.8%

0.0%

From now on, hitting homers against Baltimore only counts as three-fourths of a homer. Sorry, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Erick Aybar.
26

49

34

48.2

49.5

48.2

.587

.568

58.7%

18.1%

76.8%

-8.7%

7.1%

A disappointing loss to the Rockies, but the Nationals end the first "half" 15 games over .500. FIFTEEN! They grow up so fast, don't they?
27

47

38

49.1

48.4

48.8

.569

.588

72.4%

7.5%

79.9%

-5.1%

22.4%

Adam Dunn came to hit five times. He struck out three times, walked once, aaaaand... [drum roll] grounded into a force out. BOOO!!!
28

52

33

49.3

49.7

50.1

.591

.611

95.3%

3.5%

98.8%

0.4%

2.4%

After taking three of four in Boston, the Yankees lead the AL East by seven games, the largest lead of any division. Said the majority of the baseball world, “YAWN!”
29

46

40

50.2

50.2

48.5

.566

.547

26.8%

28.7%

55.5%

-4.3%

-6.7%

Still the best run differential in the National League, still third place in their division behind the Pirates and Reds. For all my blabbing about run differential, record obviously matters, too.
30

52

34

50.9

54.6

53.5

.614

.632

86.2%

13.0%

99.2%

0.4%

0.0%

The Twins gave the Rangers three unearned runs in the bottom of the ninth and then lost the game in the 13th. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than really bad.