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Prospectus Hit List for October 2



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for September 28
After six straight months of using this platform to poke fun at all 30 teams, I thought we could end on a high note. From the Dodgers to the Tigers, here's what every team has to look forward to in 2018. Thanks for reading, friends. It's been a blast. See you next year.

Hit List updates were published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Closing time, you don't have to go home but you can't stay here.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

102

60

107.8

112.0

109.2

.665

.670

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The best way to end “what’s the all-time winning streak record” arguments? Win 162 games.
2

104

58

101.6

105.8

104.8

.642

.638

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Maybe 2018 can be the year they peak in October.
3

101

61

99.9

103.4

102.1

.627

.632

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They’ll either celebrate killing the SI Cover jinx or engender sympathy as a team that fell prey to the SI Cover jinx.
4

91

71

100.8

107.3

105.8

.625

.629

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Maybe Gleyber Torres can overshadow Aaron Judge the way Aaron Judge overshadowed Gary Sanchez.
5

97

65

96.0

99.0

96.3

.599

.594

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After having an entire offseason to rest, there’s at least a chance all of their stars will make it through the first series unscathed.
6

93

69

96.7

96.2

95.3

.588

.583

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Honestly, it’s better to have J.D Martinezed and lost than to never have J.D. Martinezed at all.
7

92

70

93.8

96.0

94.3

.580

.576

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

I won’t lie, Cubs fans are gonna be PISSED about the upcoming Farm System Rankings.
8

93

69

93.2

87.0

88.0

.557

.562

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A full year will have passed since David Ortiz last played, meaning we’ll only have three years to go until the Boston media stop asking about his return.
9

83

79

86.8

88.0

87.7

.533

.528

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-10.4%

It will be the ‘18 season. 18 = 6 +6 + 6. 666 = a good omen for the Cardinals.
10

80

82

79.9

87.3

88.8

.519

.524

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Groundhog Day is a good movie.
11

87

75

87.6

84.4

83.2

.528

.523

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

23.5%

Perhaps they will trade one of their 4,500 outfielders for a No. 3 starter.
12

85

77

83.6

81.9

81.3

.512

.517

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

1.0%

The Twins could become the first team to lose 100 games one season, go to the playoffs the next, then lose 100 games again.
13

86

76

84.7

82.1

81.8

.516

.511

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-13.2%

Matt Garza might be retired.
14

80

82

81.1

77.0

79.0

.489

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.9%

Mike Trout will still only be 26 for a majority of the season! Incredibly, that makes him younger than everyone who was born before him.
15

78

84

78.8

78.9

79.9

.487

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One of their pitchers might stay healthy.
16

78

84

79.4

76.0

76.8

.479

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Collectively, we have another half-year to find the Fountain of Youth and fly Adrian Beltre there.
17

75

87

72.4

77.3

77.8

.467

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They’ll hit for some power, trade some veterans, let some young guys play. Should be a nice change of pace.
18

77

85

76.7

76.6

76.4

.473

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It will be fascinating to see what Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera do in their new front office roles.
19

76

86

71.6

71.6

73.9

.452

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A six-month break is the best cure for blisters, tbh.
20

80

82

71.9

69.6

71.6

.452

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Er ... making new friends and meeting new people is fun!
21

75

87

71.4

68.8

71.2

.442

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They have six full months to ensure that Ubaldo Jimenez never makes another start.
22

75

87

74.2

69.3

70.2

.446

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tyler Glasnow might download Waze and get clearer directions to the strike zone.
23

72

90

72.1

71.5

70.4

.441

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ronald Acuna will be closer to the majors.
24

68

94

69.8

70.7

71.8

.433

.428

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Even if the world ends between now and April, the Reds’ pitching can’t get worse.
25

67

95

69.5

67.1

69.3

.421

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There will probably be less James Shields involved. There will probably be more Yoan Moncada involved.
26

66

96

71.5

69.6

69.3

.427

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Looks like Maikel Franco won’t play as much third base!
27

70

92

68.6

67.7

68.0

.423

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They should be healthy enough to have the luxury of not playing Michael Conforto once more.
28

64

98

65.8

66.7

67.2

.407

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There will be plenty of hard-throwing prep right-handers for the Tigers to choose from with the first overall pick.
29

64

98

66.5

62.2

64.0

.396

.391

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Madison Bumgarner will probably stay away from dirt bikes.
30

71

91

58.9

62.1

64.5

.396

.391

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Perhaps they will gain an identity.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
stephenbawesome

This is always outstanding, and a nice final installment this season.

Oct 03, 2017 18:42 PM
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BP staff member Ben Carsley

<3

Oct 03, 2017 20:53 PM
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