|
Final 2003 Postseason Reliever Evaluation Tools Report
Just for grins, we tracked the reliever evaluation numbers throughout the postseason. This report rates relievers according to a variety of metrics, all of which are based on the notion of run expectation -- how many runs are expected to score given the bases/outs state when the reliever entered and/or left the game. The advantage of these metrics is that they do a reasonable job of handling two factors that are poorly handled by traditional statistics based on runs charged: how the reliever handles his inherited runners, and the support the reliever gets when he turns runners over to others. Overall run prevention is measured by Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP), a park-adjusted extension to a tool developed by Gary Skoog and Steve Schulman, which measures how run expectation changes between the time the reliever enters the game and the time he exits. The entire set of tools is described in an article, and you can see a detailed definition from the glossary of any stat used below by clicking on the column heading. You can also see the final 2003 regular season numbers. (Numbers through end of 2003 postseason) Top 10 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Pitcher Team IP R ARA APR IRP BRS RRA ARP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Rivera,M NYY 16.0 1 0.54 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.52 7.6 Timlin,M BOS 9.7 0 0.00 5.1 0.8 0.0 -0.58 5.8 Pavano,C FLA 5.7 0 0.00 3.0 1.3 0.0 -1.87 4.2 Herges,M SFG 4.3 0 0.00 2.3 1.5 0.1 -2.88 3.7 Embree,A BOS 6.7 0 0.00 3.5 -0.3 0.0 0.78 3.0 Mussina,M NYY 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 1.3 0.0 -4.07 2.9 Heredia,F NYY 4.7 1 1.85 1.5 0.9 -0.2 -0.34 2.6 Bradford,C OAK 3.7 0 0.00 1.9 1.1 0.7 -1.38 2.5 Milton,E MIN 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 0.7 0.0 -1.69 2.4 Williamson,S BOS 8.0 1 1.06 3.3 0.0 1.1 2.18 2.3 Return to Top Bottom 5 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Pitcher Team IP R ARA APR IRP BRS RRA ARP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Helling,R FLA 8.7 8 8.93 -4.0 0.8 1.3 9.62 -4.7 Veres,D CHC 4.3 3 6.72 -0.9 -2.0 0.5 11.46 -3.2 Guthrie,M CHC 1.7 3 17.47 -2.4 0.0 0.0 18.77 -2.6 Nathan,J SFG 0.3 3 86.26 -3.0 0.0 -0.5 72.26 -2.5 Looper,B FLA 7.0 5 6.91 -1.7 0.3 0.4 7.91 -2.4 Return to Top Top 5 ML Relievers at preventing inherited runners from scoring (Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented) Pitcher Team IRnr EIRs IR EIRf IRP ------------------------------------------------- Herges,M SFG 3 1.4 0 0.0 1.5 Mussina,M NYY 2 1.4 0 0.0 1.3 Pavano,C FLA 3 1.2 0 0.0 1.3 Romero,J MIN 4 1.2 0 0.0 1.2 Bradford,C OAK 2 1.1 0 0.0 1.1 Return to Top Bottom 5 ML Relievers at preventing inherited runners from scoring (Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented) Pitcher Team IRnr EIRs IR EIRf IRP ------------------------------------------------- Veres,D CHC 4 1.2 3 0.0 -2.0 Christiansen,J SFG 3 1.2 2 0.6 -1.6 Sauerbeck,S BOS 2 0.4 2 0.0 -1.6 Willis,D FLA 3 0.9 2 0.0 -1.3 Rincon,J MIN 3 0.7 2 0.0 -1.3 Return to Top Received Most Help: 5 ML Relievers most bailed out by others (Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved) Pitcher Team OBRnr EBR BR BRS -------------------------------------------- Helling,R FLA 3 1.2 0 1.3 Rincon,R OAK 2 1.1 0 1.1 Williamson,S BOS 2 1.1 0 1.1 Willis,D FLA 8 1.8 1 0.9 Rincon,J MIN 3 0.7 0 0.7 Return to Top Received Least Help: 5 ML Relievers least bailed out by others (Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved) Pitcher Team OBRnr EBR BR BRS -------------------------------------------- Farnsworth,K CHC 4 0.7 4 -3.7 Tejera,M FLA 1 0.2 1 -0.9 Kim,B BOS 2 0.4 1 -0.6 Nathan,J SFG 4 1.6 2 -0.5 Contreras,J NYY 2 0.7 1 -0.3 Return to Top 5 ML Relievers most underrated by conventional run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR) Pitcher Team IRP BRS ARA RRA APR ARP Diff. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Farnsworth,K CHC -1.0 -3.7 7.28 4.89 -2.2 -0.1 2.1 Herges,M SFG 1.5 0.1 0.00 -2.88 2.3 3.7 1.4 Mussina,M NYY 1.3 0.0 0.00 -4.07 1.6 2.9 1.4 Pavano,C FLA 1.3 0.0 0.00 -1.87 3.0 4.2 1.2 Heredia,F NYY 0.9 -0.2 1.85 -0.34 1.5 2.6 1.1 Return to Top 5 ML Relievers most overrated by conventional run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR) Pitcher Team IRP BRS ARA RRA APR ARP Diff. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Veres,D CHC -2.0 0.5 6.72 11.46 -0.9 -3.2 -2.3 Willis,D FLA -1.3 0.9 1.94 5.78 1.6 -0.6 -2.1 Christiansen,J SFG -1.6 0.4 NaN Inf 0.0 -2.1 -2.1 Rincon,J MIN -1.3 0.7 0.00 7.86 1.2 -0.8 -2.0 Sauerbeck,S BOS -1.6 0.0 0.00 44.14 0.2 -1.5 -1.6 Return to Top Team Bullpen Totals (teams ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented): Team IP R ARA APR RRA ARP ----------------------------------------------- NYY 48.7 16 2.85 10.4 2.54 12.0 BOS 34.3 5 1.24 13.5 1.77 11.5 OAK 20.7 8 3.39 3.2 3.60 2.7 ATL 14.7 5 3.08 2.8 3.51 2.1 MIN 16.0 5 2.75 3.6 3.94 1.5 FLA 62.7 28 4.32 3.1 4.70 0.5 CHC 30.0 15 4.85 -0.3 5.58 -2.7 SFG 15.7 11 6.73 -3.4 7.01 -3.9 ----------------------------------------------- ML 242.7 93 3.55 32.9 3.90 23.6 Return to Top Team-by-team stats: ATLANTA BRAVES Park Effect: +2.3% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cunnane,W 2 1.7 2 10.83 -1.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.5 13.49 -1.6 Gryboski,K 5 3.0 1 3.01 0.6 0.60 0.14 0.7 0.0 2.02 0.9 Hernandez,R 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 King,R 4 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 1.00 0.27 0.1 0.6 3.86 0.1 Mercker,K 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Smoltz,J 2 3.0 2 6.02 -0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 6.34 -0.5 Wright,J 4 4.0 0 0.00 2.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 19 14.7 5 3.08 2.8 0.37 0.09 3.51 2.1 CHICAGO CUBS Park Effect: -12.0% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Alfonseca,A 4 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 0.75 0.14 0.6 0.1 -0.89 2.1 Borowski,J 5 7.7 2 2.53 1.9 0.20 0.04 -0.9 0.0 3.86 0.8 Cruz,J 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.5 Farnsworth,K 8 8.0 6 7.28 -2.2 1.62 0.40 -1.0 -3.7 4.89 -0.1 Guthrie,M 3 1.7 3 17.47 -2.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 18.77 -2.6 Remlinger,M 7 4.0 1 2.43 1.0 0.71 0.23 -0.9 0.3 5.20 -0.2 Veres,D 5 4.3 3 6.72 -0.9 0.80 0.25 -2.0 0.5 11.46 -3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 33 30.0 15 4.85 -0.3 0.79 0.21 5.58 -2.7 FLORIDA MARLINS Park Effect: -11.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beckett,J 1 4.0 1 2.42 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 2.56 1.0 Bump,N 2 3.0 2 6.45 -0.6 0.50 0.19 -0.7 0.0 9.04 -1.4 Fox,C 9 11.3 5 4.27 0.6 0.78 0.19 0.8 0.4 4.17 0.8 Helling,R 4 8.7 8 8.93 -4.0 1.25 0.46 0.8 1.3 9.62 -4.7 Looper,B 8 7.0 5 6.91 -1.7 0.88 0.28 0.3 0.4 7.91 -2.4 Pavano,C 6 5.7 0 0.00 3.0 0.50 0.19 1.3 0.0 -1.87 4.2 Penny,B 3 3.7 0 0.00 1.9 0.33 0.12 -0.7 0.0 1.87 1.2 Tejera,M 2 1.3 1 7.26 -0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.9 1.28 0.5 Urbina,U 10 13.0 5 3.72 1.5 0.30 0.08 0.8 0.0 3.42 1.9 Willis,D 5 5.0 1 1.94 1.6 0.60 0.18 -1.3 0.9 5.78 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 50 62.7 28 4.32 3.1 0.60 0.19 4.70 0.5 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Park Effect: -9.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brower,J 2 3.0 3 9.58 -1.6 0.50 0.19 0.4 0.0 8.93 -1.4 Christiansen 1 0.0 0 NaN 0.0 3.00 1.17 -1.6 0.4 Inf -2.1 Eyre,S 1 0.3 0 0.00 0.2 1.00 0.12 0.1 0.0 -1.79 0.2 Herges,M 3 4.3 0 0.00 2.3 1.00 0.46 1.5 0.1 -2.88 3.7 Hermanson,D 1 1.0 0 0.00 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.4 3.51 0.1 Nathan,J 2 0.3 3 86.26 -3.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.5 72.26 -2.5 Rodriguez,F 3 4.0 3 7.19 -1.1 0.33 0.13 0.4 0.0 6.70 -0.9 Worrell,T 2 2.7 2 7.19 -0.7 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.3 8.56 -1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 15 15.7 11 6.73 -3.4 0.60 0.23 7.01 -3.9 BOSTON RED SOX Park Effect: +8.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arroyo,B 3 3.3 1 2.55 0.8 0.33 0.08 0.2 0.0 2.11 1.0 Embree,A 8 6.7 0 0.00 3.5 1.25 0.51 -0.3 0.0 0.78 3.0 Jones,T 1 0.3 0 0.00 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.7 15.23 -0.4 Kim,B 1 0.7 1 12.74 -0.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 -0.6 3.71 0.1 Lowe,D 2 2.7 1 3.19 0.5 1.00 0.54 1.1 0.7 1.97 0.8 Sauerbeck,S 1 0.3 0 0.00 0.2 2.00 0.36 -1.6 0.0 44.14 -1.5 Timlin,M 8 9.7 0 0.00 5.1 0.38 0.10 0.8 0.0 -0.58 5.8 Wakefield,T 2 2.7 1 3.19 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 3.45 0.4 Williamson,S 8 8.0 1 1.06 3.3 0.00 0.00 0.0 1.1 2.18 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 34 34.3 5 1.24 13.5 0.53 0.19 1.77 11.5 MINNESOTA TWINS Park Effect: +1.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Guardado,E 2 2.0 2 8.79 -0.9 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 8.73 -0.9 Hawkins,L 3 3.0 3 8.79 -1.3 0.67 0.29 -0.1 0.3 9.84 -1.7 Milton,E 1 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 3.00 0.70 0.7 0.0 -1.69 2.4 Reed,R 1 0.7 0 0.00 0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.2 2.33 0.2 Rincon,J 3 2.3 0 0.00 1.2 1.00 0.23 -1.3 0.7 7.86 -0.8 Rogers,K 1 1.3 0 0.00 0.7 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.7 3.81 0.1 Romero,J 3 3.3 0 0.00 1.8 1.33 0.40 1.2 0.7 -0.98 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 14 16.0 5 2.75 3.6 0.86 0.25 3.94 1.5 NEW YORK YANKEES Park Effect: +4.7% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contreras,J 8 11.0 7 5.51 -0.9 0.50 0.12 -0.0 -0.3 5.88 -1.4 Hammond,C 1 2.0 2 8.66 -0.9 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 10.17 -1.2 Heredia,F 6 4.7 1 1.85 1.5 1.17 0.33 0.9 -0.2 -0.34 2.6 Mussina,M 1 3.0 0 0.00 1.6 2.00 1.38 1.3 0.0 -4.07 2.9 Nelson,J 8 7.0 2 2.47 1.8 0.12 0.04 0.3 0.2 2.39 1.9 Rivera,M 8 16.0 1 0.54 7.5 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.52 7.6 Weaver,J 1 1.0 1 8.66 -0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 10.17 -0.6 Wells,D 1 0.7 1 12.98 -0.6 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 13.79 -0.7 White,G 3 3.3 1 2.60 0.8 1.67 0.40 0.2 0.0 2.47 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 37 48.7 16 2.85 10.4 0.51 0.16 2.54 12.0 OAKLAND ATHLETICS Park Effect: +2.4% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bradford,C 4 3.7 0 0.00 1.9 0.50 0.28 1.1 0.7 -1.38 2.5 Foulke,K 3 5.0 2 3.50 0.7 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 3.32 0.8 Harden,R 2 1.3 2 13.14 -1.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 11.98 -1.1 Lilly,T 1 2.0 0 0.00 1.1 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.1 Mecir,J 1 0.7 0 0.00 0.4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.91 0.3 Rincon,R 4 4.0 2 4.38 0.2 0.75 0.21 -0.2 1.1 7.43 -1.2 Sparks,SW 1 4.0 2 4.38 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 4.14 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 16 20.7 8 3.39 3.2 0.31 0.12 3.60 2.7 Multi-team pitcher totals: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher Team G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G IRP BRS RRA ARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR LEAGUE Totals: --------------------------------------------------------- G IP R ARA APR IRnr/G EIRs/G RRA ARP --------------------------------------------------------- 218 242.7 93 3.55 32.9 0.58 0.18 3.90 23.6 Return to Top Comments and questions welcome. Copyright © 2003 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. |