Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	88	John Maine	2009	4.65
2	87	Wade LeBlanc	2013	6.71
3	87	Chase Anderson	2016	4.93
4	86	David Phelps	2015	4.74
5	86	Vidal Nuno	2016	3.53
6	85	Rich Hill	2008	4.12
7	85	J.A. Happ	2011	5.93
8	85	Adam Conley	2018	4.44
9	85	Josh Collmenter	2014	3.76
10	85	Brad Peacock	2016	4.26
11	85	Zach McAllister	2016	3.61
12	85	Matt Belisle	2008	8.19
13	84	Randy Wells	2011	5.05
14	83	Charlie Furbush	2014	3.61
15	83	Chris Young	2007	3.38
16	83	Jeff Niemann	2011	4.32
17	83	Roenis Elias	2017	0.00
18	83	Christian Friedrich	2016	5.08
19	83	Dan Straily	2017	4.46
20	83	Matt Andriese	2018	5.83
21	82	Joe Saunders	2009	4.94
22	82	Collin McHugh	2015	3.93
23	82	Zack Godley	2018	5.15
24	82	Liam Hendriks	2017	4.92
25	82	Nate Karns	2016	5.25
26	82	Shane Greene	2017	2.93
27	81	Aaron Heilman	2007	3.77
28	81	Tyler Anderson	2018	4.70
29	81	Kevin Gregg	2006	4.71
30	81	Dillon Gee	2014	4.00
31	80	Armando Galarraga	2010	4.68
32	80	Seth Lugo	2018	3.20
33	80	Jeff Samardzija	2013	4.59
34	80	Phil Coke	2011	5.30
35	80	Brandon Workman	2017	3.86
36	80	Tyler Thornburg	2017	0.00	DNP
37	80	Tom Gorzelanny	2011	4.29
38	80	Carlos Carrasco	2015	3.68
39	80	Sean Douglass	2007	0.00	DNP
40	80	Chad Bettis	2017	5.24
41	80	Lance Lynn	2015	3.39
42	80	Angel Guzman	2010	0.00	DNP
43	79	Brett Oberholtzer	2018	0.00	DNP
44	79	Billy Traber	2008	7.02
45	79	Sam LeCure	2012	3.45
46	79	Edinson Volquez	2012	4.34
47	79	Dave Bush	2008	4.48
48	79	Adam Ottavino	2014	3.74
49	79	Brett Cecil	2015	2.82
50	79	Wade Miley	2015	4.55
51	78	Anthony DeSclafani	2018	5.32
52	78	Ross Stripling	2018	3.10
53	78	Albert Suarez	2018	0.00	DNP
54	78	Justin Germano	2011	5.68
55	78	Matt Barnes	2018	3.65
56	78	Mike Bolsinger	2016	6.83
57	78	Rubby De La Rosa	2017	4.70
58	78	Clay Hensley	2008	6.23
59	78	Jon Rauch	2007	3.81
60	78	Tyler Lyons	2016	3.38
61	78	Burke Badenhop	2011	4.10
62	78	Alfredo Aceves	2011	2.92
63	78	Cory Luebke	2013	0.00	DNP
64	78	Josh Outman	2013	4.50
65	78	Craig Stammen	2012	2.75
66	78	Jake Odorizzi	2018	4.87
67	77	Jacob deGrom	2016	3.22
68	77	Joel Hanrahan	2010	3.62
69	77	Homer Bailey	2014	3.71
70	77	James McDonald	2013	7.28
71	77	Justin Grimm	2017	5.53
72	77	Wil Ledezma	2009	11.12
73	77	Colby Lewis	2008	0.00	DNP
74	77	Garrett Olson	2012	108.00
75	77	Shaun Marcum	2010	3.87
76	77	Alex Colome	2017	3.65
77	77	Chase Whitley	2017	4.55
78	77	Dustin Moseley	2010	4.96
79	77	Brian Bannister	2009	5.49
80	77	Jake Arrieta	2014	2.64
81	77	Sammy Solis	2017	5.88
82	77	Brad Lincoln	2013	4.83
83	77	Shawn Hill	2009	5.25
84	77	Gavin Floyd	2011	4.51
85	76	Juan Gutierrez	2012	0.00	DNP
86	76	Neil Ramirez	2017	8.62
87	76	Dan Meyer	2010	9.64
88	76	Cha Seung Baek	2008	4.91
89	76	Corey Kluber	2014	2.75
90	76	Dustin Nippert	2009	4.00
91	76	Matt Guerrier	2007	2.25
92	76	Ivan Nova	2015	5.17
93	76	Sean Gilmartin	2018	3.00
94	76	Matt Shoemaker	2015	4.66
95	76	Brian Duensing	2011	5.62
96	76	Brandon Claussen	2007	0.00	DNP
97	76	Scott Baker	2010	4.60
98	76	Felix Pena	2018	4.37
99	76	Wade Davis	2014	1.00
100	76	Ariel Miranda	2017	5.23

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		What is there to say about Tropeano that hasn’t already been said about Alex Meyer? Or Matt Shoemaker? Or Garrett Richards? Or C.J. Wilson? The Stony Brook product spent the entire 2017 season on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he allows a few too many fly balls for comfort in this homerrific climate, Tropeano could be a useful back-end starter for the Halos when he returns in 2018.
2017		One silver lining for the Angels: All of their pitchers can't get hurt again, because they'll all still be recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tropeano was one of the unlucky lambs in that particular slaughterhouse, going under the knife late enough in the season that he isn’t likely to see the field again until 2018. When he returns he’ll hope his fly-ball tendencies and iffy secondary pitches are offset by enough strikeouts that he can grab one of the last spots in the Angels' rotation.
2016		With such a powerful delivery, one might expect Tropeano to channel the Ricky Vaughn cliché and unleash 100 mph bullets with no idea where the ball is going, but the right-hander's velocity stays parked in the low 90s and he flirts with solid command. He also mirrors the high elbows of Chris Sale and struggles with balance during his stride. There's a lot of flail in Tropeano's delivery, but his lack of limb control after release point is a poor indicator given that he stays reasonably on line to the target. Tropeano will travel as far as his secondary pitches will carry him, but the changeup and the slider both need refinement before he can prevent opposing batters from sitting on heat.
2015		The emergence of Tropeano's changeup was one of the single most important developments on the Astros' farm last year, transforming the big righty from decent depth-chart piece into a significant trade chip. The improved off-speed arsenal decimated minor-league lefties. Tropeano missed more bats, but the real secret sauce was in limiting those opposite-handed hitters to a .196 BABIP and a .156 batting average overall by inducing more weak contact in the air. He handled his debut in September with enough poise to convince the Angels that the improvements would translate, so they sent Hank Conger to Houston and will give Tropeano a crack at their 2015 rotation. His mechanics are worth keeping an eye on: Coaches will seek to protect his shoulder from the unconventional arm action; fans will want to catch the butt wiggle that occasionally initiates his delivery, a tick that flashes more salsa than twerk, and which is frankly mesmerizing.
2014		Another six-foot-four Astros starter, Nick Tropeano's Double-A peripherals were essentially identical to 2012’s in High-A Lancaster. He relies on command and a sinking changeup, daring hitters to play his game of deception.
2013		Tropeano is a name to remember. He was seemingly born with a great changeup, and his delivery and mental game are also considered top-tier. Even with a good slider and very good control, because of velocity deficiencies (he was lucky to hit 92 once per outing) he was thought of as a right-handed Dallas Keuchel, a pitcher for whom everything would have to be perfect to succeed. All that changed in 2012, as dedication to adding strength over the offseason pushed his typical fastball velocity into the low 90s.
2012		Fifth-round pick Nick Tropeano can barely throw 90 mph but is so deceptive that he projects as having a career.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Nick Tropeano threw 4,398 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2014 and 2022, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2022, he relied primarily on his Curve (78mph) and Fourseam Fastball (90mph), also mixing in a Splitter (80mph), Sinker (88mph) and Change (80mph).