Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	91	Jose Reyes	2009	94
2	89	Yunel Escobar	2009	112
3	88	J.J. Hardy	2009	80
4	88	John Valentin	1993	103
5	87	Starlin Castro	2016	93
6	86	Barry Larkin	1990	109
7	86	Derek Jeter	2000	124
8	85	Jim Fregosi	1968	103
9	84	Toby Harrah	1975	144
10	84	Dickie Thon	1984	72
11	84	Cecil Travis	1940	112
12	83	Roberto Alomar	1994	112
13	83	Harvey Kuenn	1957	99
14	83	Johnny Lipon	1949	99
15	83	Paul Molitor	1983	107
16	82	Ray Boone	1950	112
17	82	Billy Herman	1936	112
18	81	Charlie Hollocher	1922	116
19	81	Lyn Lary	1932	87
20	81	Stu Martin	1939	72
21	81	Alan Trammell	1984	129
22	81	Robin Yount	1982	154
23	81	Lou Boudreau	1944	128
24	81	Nomar Garciaparra	2000	153
25	81	Frankie Frisch	1924	125
26	80	Phil Linz	1965	77
27	80	Chris Speier	1976	84
28	80	Rafael Furcal	2004	94
29	80	Sal Bando	1970	131
30	80	Brad Miller	2016	106
31	80	Marcus Giles	2004	106
32	80	Rich Rollins	1964	101
33	80	Dick McAuliffe	1966	130
34	80	Martin Prado	2010	114
35	80	Cal Ripken Jr.	1987	105
36	80	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	148
37	80	Woody English	1932	80
38	80	Jeff Blauser	1992	117
39	80	Carl Furillo	1948	104
40	80	Pete Rose	1967	125
41	79	Ryne Sandberg	1986	98
42	79	Joe Cronin	1933	135
43	79	Bob Elliott	1943	132
44	79	Jo-Jo Moore	1935	106
45	79	Elvis Andrus	2015	87
46	79	Asdrubal Cabrera	2012	108
47	79	Scott Leius	1992	77
48	79	Edgar Renteria	2003	124
49	79	Travis Jackson	1930	123
50	79	Carney Lansford	1983	129
51	79	Pie Traynor	1925	117
52	79	Odubel Herrera	2018	93
53	78	Barney McCosky	1943	0	DNP
54	78	Floyd Robinson	1962	112
55	78	Wally Moses	1937	125
56	78	Carlos Baerga	1995	112
57	78	Tommy Brown	1954	0	DNP
58	78	George Brett	1979	140
59	78	Troy Tulowitzki	2011	139
60	78	Andy Pafko	1947	104
61	78	Bob Bailor	1978	81
62	78	Kevin Seitzer	1988	119
63	78	Minnie Minoso	1952	120
64	78	Todd Zeile	1992	111
65	78	Gene Locklear	1976	54
66	78	Lew Riggs	1936	83
67	78	Jack Lohrke	1950	73
68	78	Harry Rice	1928	105
69	78	Bill Doran	1984	94
70	78	Chase Utley	2005	126
71	78	Juan Rivera	2005	110
72	78	Charles Thomas	2005	71
73	77	Bert Campaneris	1968	104
74	77	Ian Kinsler	2008	129
75	77	Gene Richards	1980	103
76	77	Oscar Gamble	1976	111
77	77	Jackie Jensen	1953	111
78	77	Ron Oester	1982	81
79	77	Jose Vidro	2001	113
80	77	Bob Johnson	1962	98
81	77	Bill Sample	1981	108
82	77	Jim Lefebvre	1968	98
83	77	Dan Driessen	1978	102
84	77	Chris Brown	1988	73
85	77	Warren Morris	2000	78
86	77	Brett Lawrie	2016	86
87	77	Charlie Gehringer	1929	139
88	77	Denis Menke	1967	98
89	77	Carl Crawford	2008	94
90	77	Ian Desmond	2012	120
91	77	Dave Chalk	1977	96
92	77	Bump Wills	1979	91
93	77	Bob Bailey	1969	95
94	77	Cass Michaels	1952	87
95	77	Todd Walker	1999	83
96	77	Red Kress	1931	117
97	77	Magglio Ordonez	2000	125
98	77	Puddin Head Jones	1952	100
99	77	Marty Marion	1944	90
100	77	Terry Harmon	1970	66

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Edgar Renteria. Alex Gonzalez. Julio Lugo. Nick Green. Marco Scutaro. Mike Aviles. Stephen Drew. Those are the seven shortstops the Red Sox relied on as primary starters in the decade between Nomar Garciaparra and Xander Bogaerts. You would think that’d buy Bogaerts a long leash, but this is Boston, so you’d be wrong. In a way, Red Sox Nation’s frustration with Bogaerts is understandable. He has so much talent that watching him struggle as he did for much of 2017 is tough, even if the wrist injury he suffered in early July was an obvious limiting factor. Bogaerts has too much power to only hit 10 homers, and too quick a bat to only hit .273, yet here we are. But even Bogaerts at his worst was the 16th best shortstop in the majors by BWARP, and he’s now a 25-year-old who has averaged three wins over the last three seasons. Bogaerts might not be Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but he’s only a tier below those players at his peak and still a serviceable everyday shortstop at his valley. If the Sox allow him to reach free agency after 2019, you can bet some team will pay richly for Bogaerts to end their own shortstop drought.
2017		You’re pretty greedy if you see Bogaerts’ 2016 performance and demand more, yet it was impossible to watch Bogey in the second half and ignore the untapped potential. Overall, Bogaerts was excellent last season. He finished second in hits and eighth in OBP among qualified shortstops, and continued to look adequate (and very handsome) in the field. He was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger and reached career highs in almost every counting stat, all during his age-23 season. Still, Bogaerts’ .253/.317/.412 line in the second half was a let-down and helped put the Bogaerts vs. Mookie Betts debate to bed...for now. Bogaerts is still so young and talented that it’s easy to envision him learning to turn those months-long slumps into just week-long slumps, emerging as a bonafide MVP candidate in the not-so-distant future. It’s not his fault that anything less will feel like a disappointment, but such is life when you starve a city hungry for shortstop talent for nearly a decade.
2016		This is not the Xander Bogaerts we were promised. As a prospect, Bogaerts was labeled as a third baseman masquerading as a shortstop, but one whose plus power would yield immediate results. In 2015, the Sox were gifted a competent defensive shortstop with an impressive hit tool, but one whose power failed to shine. Homers are at a premium in the game today, and you can argue that the Bogaerts who existed in the minds of so many scouts would be the superior version. But legitimate shortstops who can bat in the top third of the order are something altogether more rare, and that's very much who Bogaerts is already at the age of 23. His transformation is remarkable for several reasons, first among them his glove work. In 2014, he was a defensive trainwreck, showing poor range and an inability to make accurate throws in high-pressure situations. It turns out renowned infielder coach Brian Butterfield is renowned for a reason, and Bogaerts is now a legitimate shortstop through and through, capable of making every routine play and the occasional spectacular one. But he didn't just show up a new fielder in 2015; he also totally changed his approach to hitting. Known for power and patience in the minors, he cut down his walks and strikeouts by swinging earlier in the count, pushing the ball the other way a ton and riding a .372 BABIP to the majors' fifth-best average. The Aruban even ran a bit, going 10-for-12 in steal attempts and posting positive baserunning numbers. The hope, of course, is that it all comes together. That Bogaerts remains a staunch defender, above-average runner and good hitter while allowing his natural plus power to surface. The fear is that he's lost his pop and is too reliant on weak contact, making him a solid player but not altogether special. Odds dictate he'll end up somewhere between those two outcomes, but when you see the ease with which he can generate loft and how he makes adjustments, it's tough to bet against him blossoming into a star. Whether you prefer Bogaerts or Mookie Betts is a question of taste, but there's no doubt that either iteration of Bogaerts is what a franchise cornerstone looks like in today's game.
2015		No Red Sox regular better represented man's hubris in a dark and dismal 2014 season than Bogaerts. He was The Savior, The Chosen One. He was to bring balance and a long-term solution to the shortstop position for the first time since Boston's last wunderkind, Nomar Garciaparra, left town in 2004. After watching Bogaerts excel in the postseason in 2013, it seemed unfathomable he'd do anything but take the league by storm. He did indeed show flashes of that player in 2014, but overall his rookie campaign was a major disappointment. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances. He hit just .143 against sliders, per Brooks Baseball. He made several errors that ended up costing the Red Sox games. And he appeared mentally unequipped to handle a temporary move from shortstop to third base, giving sports talk radio admirers in Boston even more ammunition against the Drew family. Of course, it wasn't all bad. Bogaerts hit quite well in April, May and September, slammed 12 homers and appeared to make defensive progress as the season went on. But while he's hardly the first young player to be humbled by the game of baseball, Bogaerts left us with more questions than he answered. He's still arguably the most important player in Boston's organization, and his ceiling remains statue-outside-of-Fenway high. But it's time to stop putting the cart before the horse, and let Bogaerts prove he can start every day for a first-division team before anointing him Garciaparra's spiritual successor.
2014		There is nothing more exciting in baseball than possibility. Bogaerts, just 21 years old, is nothing but possibility. Despite his youth, he vanquished Double-A in short order, then did the same to Triple-A pitching before earning the call to the majors. While he barely played before October came, he looked like a veteran of huge, high-leverage, bright-spotlight moments when it counted, drawing key walks and scoring runs when the Red Sox needed them most. It's this adjustment to his competition, to his environment, that makes the possibility of Bogaerts so enticing. It's easy to believe that he can become whatever fans, analysts and scouts have dreamed for him, because the talent, the baseball IQ and the work ethic are all strong in this one.
2013		The next great Red Sox prospect doesn’t mean the next great Red Sox player, but to paraphrase Hall and Oates, Xander Bogaerts can make Red Sox fans’ dreams come true. Oh, sure, there are some things Bogaerts doesn’t do well. Flying, for instance, or time travel. But on a baseball field there isn’t much he can’t handle. The 20-year-old shortstop has already seen success in Double-A, showing elite bat speed, plus-plus power potential, and athleticism to spare. Plate discipline is a small-sample nitpick, and some people question whether he can stick at shortstop, but his bat will play either way. Bogaerts is slated for Portland, and if he continues to progress, Triple-A or even a September call-up is possible.
2012		Bogaerts's .260/.324/.509 line with 32 extra-base hits in 296 plate appearances is impressive for two reasons: it's good enough to make his eventual move off of shortstop fine, and, most importantly, Bogaerts is 18 years old and had a mere 280 pro plate appearances heading into this year. He is a long way off, of course, and his ceiling and floor are further apart than the two sides at a typical NBA labor meeting. Power potential doesn't necessarily mean success—ask Lars Anderson about that one—but he is, for now, a name to remember.

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