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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 77)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	88	Jason Kubel	2009	130
2	87	Kendrys Morales	2010	128
3	86	Dayan Viciedo	2016	0	DNP
4	86	Mike Jacobs	2008	117
5	86	C.J. Cron	2017	99
6	86	Matt LaPorta	2012	76
7	85	Xavier Nady	2006	97
8	85	Matt Adams	2016	103
9	84	Mitch Moreland	2013	104
10	84	Justin Morneau	2008	127
11	83	Adam Lind	2011	109
12	83	Chris Shelton	2007	0	DNP
13	83	Adrian Gonzalez	2009	152
14	82	Travis Ishikawa	2011	0	DNP
15	81	Wilson Betemit	2009	75
16	81	Wilin Rosario	2016	0	DNP
17	80	Brennan Boesch	2012	79
18	80	Ryan Garko	2008	104
19	80	Brett Wallace	2014	0	DNP
20	80	J.D. Martinez	2015	140
21	78	Hee-Seop Choi	2006	0	DNP
22	78	Corey Hart	2009	95
23	78	Domonic Brown	2015	82
24	78	Chase Headley	2011	101
25	78	Chris Parmelee	2015	92
26	78	Mark Trumbo	2013	108
27	77	Travis Snider	2015	86
28	77	Corey Dickerson	2016	101
29	77	Josh Reddick	2014	116
30	77	Daniel Murphy	2012	96
31	77	Trevor Plouffe	2013	102
32	77	Jefry Marte	2018	81
33	77	Jesus Montero	2017	0	DNP
34	77	Brandon Belt	2015	116
35	76	Kennys Vargas	2018	0	DNP
36	76	Adam LaRoche	2007	102
37	76	Kevin Kouzmanoff	2009	91
38	76	Glenn Davis	1988	133
39	76	Larry Sheets	1987	132
40	76	Scott Schebler	2018	101
41	76	Mike Carp	2013	114
42	76	Yan Gomes	2015	80
43	76	Cody Asche	2017	57
44	76	Lucas Duda	2013	112
45	75	Devin Mesoraco	2015	79
46	75	Wil Myers	2018	91
47	75	Chase Utley	2006	120
48	75	Greg Walker	1987	105
49	75	Gaby Sanchez	2011	117
50	75	Lee Thomas	1963	82
51	75	Kole Calhoun	2015	106
52	75	Curtis Granderson	2008	122
53	75	J.P. Arencibia	2013	73
54	75	Mike Ivie	1980	85
55	75	Mark Canha	2016	65
56	75	Lamar Johnson	1978	103
57	75	Justin Smoak	2014	86
58	75	Jackie Bradley	2017	96
59	75	Chris Richard	2001	99
60	75	Ian Stewart	2012	72
61	75	Yonder Alonso	2014	99
62	74	Derek Dietrich	2017	96
63	74	Ike Davis	2014	101
64	74	Jorge Cantu	2009	104
65	74	Jake Lamb	2018	80
66	74	Will Middlebrooks	2016	57
67	74	Neil Walker	2013	109
68	74	Shin-Soo Choo	2010	134
69	74	Ryan Doumit	2008	117
70	74	Tyler Colvin	2013	61
71	74	Michael Cuddyer	2006	119
72	74	Khris Davis	2015	119
73	74	Logan Morrison	2015	99
74	74	Chris Johnson	2012	101
75	74	Steve Pearce	2010	84
76	74	Earl Williams	1976	102
77	74	Walt Bond	1965	99
78	74	Mark Teixeira	2007	141
79	74	Jake Fox	2010	80
80	74	Carlos Gonzalez	2013	135
81	74	Evan Gattis	2014	126
82	73	Willie Upshaw	1984	114
83	73	Dave Revering	1980	130
84	73	Alex Gordon	2011	133
85	73	Jeff Clement	2011	0	DNP
86	73	Rocco Baldelli	2009	95
87	73	Tommy Medica	2015	0	DNP
88	73	Hal Trosky	1940	134
89	73	John Bowker	2011	54
90	73	Marcell Ozuna	2018	109
91	73	Lonnie Chisenhall	2016	94
92	73	Juan Francisco	2014	100
93	73	Delmon Young	2013	97
94	73	Marcus Semien	2018	99
95	73	Juan Rivera	2006	128
96	73	Travis Shaw	2017	114
97	73	Chris Heisey	2012	86
98	73	Paul Sorrento	1993	105
99	73	Jhonny Peralta	2009	85
100	73	Kent Hrbek	1987	137

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		Joseph hanging around in the majors represents so much that is good about baseball. Once a top catching prospect, he saw a string of concussions nearly rob him of his career and his overall health. He finally got past them in 2016, and had the fortune to be in a system without much standing in his way at first base. Unfortunately, after two years of semi-regular playing time, it's clear that there isn't much here outside of big pop, and Joseph's right-handed power has become a dime a dozen in the majors. He ran straight into the irresistible force of Rhys Hoskins, despite Pete Mackanin's attempts to fit in both, and might be entering the phase of his career where he learns that most teams keep their second-best first baseman at Triple-A. Root for him to keep overcoming the odds, but recognize they're getting long again.
2017		If all Joseph did in 2016 was make the majors, hit a home run or two before failing miserably, and then disappear into the proverbial sunset, it still would have been a feel-good story because of Joseph's health struggles and sputtering developmental path. Instead, he went from being a player the Phillies were looking at simply because the roster was thin to someone who has a legitimate chance of being a productive major league regular. During the course of the season, Joseph improved his batting eye, increased his walk rate while decreasing his whiff rate and started showing substantial gains against right-handed pitching. It remains to be seen how well Joseph would do with regular at-bats but he has earned the chance to get them. It is possible the concussions that held him back and eventually stripped him of his pads are in the rearview mirror and we are just now seeing the powerful prospect he once was emerge offensively.
2016		Tommy Joseph spent his season playing catch-up from time lost to post-concussion difficulties that will bump him off catching and over to first base. That he got 175 plate appearances at all was far more important than the lackluster offensive performance that accompanied them.
2015		Another lost season has cost Joseph dearly, though when we're talking about recurring concussions there are more serious issues at hand. Once ahead of schedule as a 21-year old with some Triple-A time under his belt, Joseph has now been limited to just 63 games over the past two years. A head injury ended his 2013 season—his third concussion, at least, he said—and a "possible concussion" knocked him foggy in April 2014. He missed a week, then returned for one before a wrist injury essentially ended his season. In that week between injuries he was catching, but a position switch seems prudent. While he has the power to carry first base, there is a substantial roadblock there—Ryan Howard's five-year, $125 million contract extension hasn't even started yet. (Joke.) For now, getting healthy is Joseph's biggest concern.
2014		Joseph was the prize acquired from the Giants in the Hunter Pence trade. The 22-year-old was expected to be the eventual successor to Carlos Ruiz, but a concussion in May fractured his season and might ultimately force a move to first base. In 72 games spent mostly between Single-A and Double-A, Joseph posted an aggregate .514 OPS, with his power almost completely sapped. Combined with the progression of Cameron Rupp, Joseph might not get a shot until September 2014, if he gets one at all.
2013		The prize of the Hunter Pence deal, Joseph enjoyed the hitter’s haven that is the California League, where at one point he hit eight home runs in six road games in Stockton and Lancaster. Unsurprisingly, he saw his power fade upon the move to Reading. The Eastern League represents a higher level and an ERA nearly a full run lower, so don't read too much into the slippage. That said, defense figures to be Joseph's calling card in the majors. He spends some time at first base, but his catching skills have advanced enough that he shouldn't have to worry about his bat carrying another position.
2012		Joseph was the second-youngest player to qualify for the batting title in the California League in 2011. Through May, he was badly overmatched, but he improved each month afterward and hit .301/.346/.574 in the second half. Joseph doesn't take many pitches, but a better contact rate in 2011 took some of the lopsidedness out of his strikeout-to-walk numbers. He's not an athletic defender—he's not an athletic anything, really—but he did cut his passed ball rate by half and threw out 37 percent of baserunners. A promotion to Double-A will keep him ahead of his peers, but advanced pitching won't suit his free swinging.
2011		The Giants’ second-round pick in 2009, high-school catcher Tommy Joseph made his pro debut in the Sally League in 2010 and showed power but little else. He projects as a slugger, but not the sort whose value could survive a move to first base.

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