Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 74)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	84	Tyson Ross	2017	8.45
2	84	Jeff Locke	2018	0.00	DNP
3	82	Trevor Cahill	2018	4.25
4	82	Hyun-jin Ryu	2017	4.12
5	81	Joe Kelly	2018	4.52
6	80	Andy Pettitte	2002	3.88
7	80	Jaime Garcia	2017	4.93
8	80	Doug Fister	2014	2.85
9	79	David Phelps	2017	3.72
10	78	Kyle Gibson	2018	4.03
11	78	Jeff Niemann	2013	0.00	DNP
12	78	Wandy Rodriguez	2009	3.37
13	78	Rick Reuschel	1979	3.88
14	78	Orel Hershiser	1989	2.63
15	78	Felix Doubront	2018	0.00	DNP
16	78	Dean Chance	1971	4.32
17	77	Mat Latos	2018	0.00	DNP
18	77	Charles Nagy	1997	4.56
19	76	Doug Davis	2006	5.22
20	76	Mark Buehrle	2009	4.05
21	76	Justin Masterson	2015	5.76
22	76	Jon Lester	2014	3.11
23	76	Larry Jackson	1961	4.22
24	76	Yovani Gallardo	2016	5.64
25	76	Mark Mulder	2008	10.80
26	75	Felix Hernandez	2016	4.46
27	75	Roberto Hernandez	2011	5.96
28	75	Kevin Brown	1995	3.81
29	75	Charlie Morton	2014	4.35
30	75	Zach McAllister	2018	6.40
31	75	Dallas Keuchel	2018	4.05
32	75	Lee Meadows	1925	4.51
33	75	Tommy Milone	2017	8.01
34	75	Bill Hands	1970	4.11
35	75	Mike Cuellar	1967	3.62
36	74	Bob Rush	1956	3.46
37	74	Mike Minor	2018	4.30
38	74	Willard Nixon	1958	7.60
39	73	Frank Lary	1960	4.04
40	73	Lance Lynn	2017	3.86
41	73	Cliff Lee	2009	3.42
42	73	Ryan Dempster	2007	4.86
43	73	Tommy John	1973	3.59
44	73	Gavin Floyd	2013	5.55
45	73	Matt Garza	2014	4.24
46	73	Andy Ashby	1998	3.57
47	73	John Lackey	2009	4.29
48	73	Carlos Carrasco	2017	3.29
49	73	Jason Hammel	2013	5.23
50	73	Vicente Padilla	2008	5.26
51	73	Bob Gibson	1966	2.89
52	73	Gene Conley	1961	5.22
53	73	Andrew Cashner	2017	4.05
54	73	Nate Robertson	2008	6.62
55	72	Zane Smith	1991	3.75
56	72	Jim Beattie	1985	7.81
57	72	Bartolo Colon	2003	3.98
58	72	Brandon McCarthy	2014	4.50
59	72	Jacob deGrom	2018	1.99
60	72	Paul Maholm	2012	3.81
61	72	Clay Buchholz	2015	3.81
62	72	Dave Goltz	1979	4.42
63	72	Dock Ellis	1975	4.44	DNP
64	72	Anibal Sanchez	2014	3.93
65	71	Phil Coke	2013	5.63
66	71	Jhoulys Chacin	2018	3.88
67	71	Gio Gonzalez	2016	4.97
68	71	Kris Medlen	2016	9.25
69	71	CC Sabathia	2011	3.30
70	71	Travis Wood	2017	7.37
71	71	Mike Caldwell	1979	3.68
72	71	Dillon Gee	2016	4.82
73	71	Russ Christopher	1948	3.36
74	71	Mike Garcia	1954	2.96
75	71	Dwight Gooden	1995	0.00	DNP
76	70	Wade Miley	2017	5.95
77	70	Jon Niese	2017	0.00	DNP
78	70	Billy O'Dell	1963	3.64
79	70	Derek Holland	2017	7.07
80	70	Steve Rogers	1980	3.23
81	70	Casey Janssen	2012	2.54
82	70	Jose Mesa	1996	3.98
83	70	Craig Stammen	2014	4.21
84	70	Kyle Snyder	2008	21.60
85	70	Bob Friend	1961	4.54
86	70	Andy Messersmith	1976	3.60
87	70	Gaylord Perry	1969	3.18
88	70	Camilo Pascual	1964	4.01
89	70	Jake Arrieta	2016	3.24
90	70	Nate Karns	2018	0.00	DNP
91	70	Francisco Liriano	2014	3.77
92	70	Vance Worley	2018	0.00	DNP
93	70	Doug Drabek	1993	4.09
94	70	Brad Penny	2008	6.46
95	70	Burke Badenhop	2013	4.62
96	70	Carlos Zambrano	2011	4.94
97	70	Josh Johnson	2014	0.00	DNP
98	70	Russ Meyer	1954	4.44
99	69	Burleigh Grimes	1924	4.74
100	69	Tom Koehler	2016	4.74

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		It’s an old adage that baseball is a game of adjustments. While insightful, such a statement often mistakenly implies immediacy: that players make adjustments and different results closely follow. For some pitchers, like Nelson, the statistical improvements don’t reflect the work behind-the-scenes for the better part of a year. Nelson shortened his delivery in the summer of 2016, slowed his tempo, and strengthened his legs to enhance his stability on the mound. As he struggled to implement the changes that year, the right-hander posted a 6.10 ERA in the second half. In 2017, though, things came together. The mechanical tweaks helped keep his arm path more consistent, leading to a career-best 6.6 percent walk rate and a massive jump in his strikeouts. The whiff rate on his curve alone jumped over six percentage points (to 15.3 percent), giving him three legitimate swing-and-miss pitches and a repertoire that worked against righties and lefties alike. Nelson credits pitching coach Derek Johnson for many of his mechanical improvements, but it’s a credit to both Nelson and the Brewers that they remained patient and committed to the changes. They refused to panic when the results dramatically worsened. As a reward to both parties, Nelson now looks to be a legitimate number-two starter, depending on how a fluke base-running-related shoulder injury recovers over the offseason.
2017		There is no end to the pitch-tinkering for Nelson, who has spent the past three seasons swimming in the Brewers’ middle-to-low rotation while working with a few different arsenals. The rising star, sinker/slider Nelson of 2013-2014 did not find ample success with those pitches, and instead of honing them further, decided to work on those offerings while expanding to a new curveball and primary fastball for 2015. That just didn’t fit, so the righty doubled down on both his primary and sinking fastballs throughout a rough 2016. Nelson’s struggles nearly escape explanation, as the hard sinker in 2016 drops and rides arm side more than his 2014 version, back when he primarily worked sinker/slider. Perhaps some nostalgia is in order for Nelson to succeed by returning to those roots and reconstructing his approach.
2016		Pockets of people in the industry adore Nelson, and in 2015 it became apparent why. The right-hander flashed hints of brilliance, especially given his new knuckle-curve that gave him a true third pitch that he could throw for strikes. His swinging-strike rate eclipsed the double-digit mark and he continued to induce a copious number of groundballs—everything a team targets in a young hurler. Still, the old bugaboos remained. His walk rate continues to suffer, but the more significant problem lies in the fact that lefties hit .298/.381/.495 against him. He occasionally found success with fastballs away and hard sliders on the hands to them, but it left a narrow margin for error. Ideally, Nelson would get a bit more vertical movement on his knuckle-curve over the winter, which would help him change eye levels better. A relentless worker, he's poised for a true breakout.
2015		Nelson steamrolled through the Pacific Coast League in the first half. He struck out a batter per inning, walked very few, kept the ball earthbound and, eventually, got the call to Milwaukee. His peripherals held relatively strong, but he failed to throw his slider consistently for strikes and found too much of the plate with his fastball. Opposing hitters blasted him with a .289 average, and he finished the year with a 1.46 WHIP. On the bright side, ever since his freshman year at the University of Alabama, Nelson has needed a year to adjust to each level of competition, after which he has bloomed anew. Upon transitioning to A-Ball, he posted a 4.38 ERA. The next year: 2.21 ERA. Upon transitioning to Double-A, he posted a 3.91 ERA. The next year: 2.74. Triple-A: 3.67 ERA, then 1.46. Nelson can touch 97 with the fastball and has a slider with legitimate plus potential. He generates groundballs and praise for his makeup. There's a lot to like, and if his historical trends prove reliable, he'll find success in Milwaukee this year.
2014		The highest-profile pitchers from Milwaukee's recent drafts have disappointed, but Nelson was impressive enough in just his third full professional season to breeze through Double-A and Triple-A and earn a cup of coffee in September. Nelson's stuff—four-seam and two-seam fastballs in the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup—ranks (for some scouts) as the best in the Brewers' system. At 6-foot-6, he gets healthy sink on his two-seamer and has the ever-important projectable frame. Nelson is still working on his changeup, a pitch that will be key if he is to succeed against left-handed batters at the major-league level, but his arsenal is promising and could see him to a major-league rotation as soon as 2014.
2013		Nelson’s year was really more of a half-Nelson, as the beefy right-hander shone while outpitching the more pedigreed Jungmann and Bradley in High-A, then lost his feel for the strike zone after a midseason promotion to Huntsville. A hulking presence on the mound, Nelson gets great mileage out of a heavy low-90s sinker that hitters continually beat into the ground, and his slider is much more than a show-me pitch. Whether he grows into a durable mid-rotation starter depends on his fleeting control, as those triumphant two months as a Brevard County Manatee represent the only time his walk rate was anywhere near acceptable. He’ll get another chance to pass the Double-A exam this summer.
2012		Jimmy Nelson keeps the ball down well for someone so big, and can still occasionally show the mid-90s heat that got him drafted in the second round, but he lacks control and so far only his slider has shown promise among his attempts at adding breaking pitches.
2011		Colossal right-hander Jimmy Nelson stampeded through the Pioneer League, leaving a trail of strikeout victims in the wake of his low-90s fastball and effective slider; the Brewers will have to sort out whether he’s a starter or a reliever, but so far there’s plenty to like.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Jimmy Nelson threw 11,222 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2013 and 2023, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2023, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph), Curve (84mph) and Slider (85mph). He also rarely threw a Sinker (93mph) and Cutter (88mph).