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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 71)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	84	Ryan Howard	2011	120
2	79	Dick Allen	1973	156
3	79	Fred McGriff	1995	114
4	77	Manny Ramirez	2003	158
5	77	Chris Davis	2017	88
6	77	David Ortiz	2007	169
7	77	Mo Vaughn	1999	117
8	77	Travis Hafner	2008	77
9	77	Willie McCovey	1969	202
10	77	Richie Sexson	2006	117
11	76	Carlos Delgado	2003	156
12	76	Adam Dunn	2011	61
13	76	Rudy York	1945	116
14	76	Reggie Jackson	1977	133
15	76	Danny Tartabull	1994	115
16	76	Eric Thames	2018	96
17	75	George Foster	1980	129
18	75	Pedro Guerrero	1987	148
19	75	Duke Snider	1958	132
20	75	Jose Canseco	1996	144
21	75	Gil Hodges	1955	124
22	74	Mike Napoli	2013	113
23	74	Ralph Kiner	1954	117
24	74	Jim Thome	2002	187
25	73	Harmon Killebrew	1967	176
26	73	Mike Schmidt	1981	192
27	73	Alex Rodriguez	2007	180
28	73	Matt Kemp	2016	108
29	73	Greg Luzinski	1982	126
30	72	Derrek Lee	2007	128
31	72	Dale Murphy	1987	145
32	72	Bill Nicholson	1946	87
33	72	Stan Musial	1952	152
34	71	Jeff Heath	1946	124
35	71	Al Rosen	1955	118
36	70	Albert Belle	1998	164
37	70	Ken Griffey	2001	123
38	70	Kevin Mitchell	1993	150
39	70	Joe Adcock	1959	140
40	70	Josh Hamilton	2012	143
41	70	Mark McGwire	1995	192
42	70	Darryl Strawberry	1993	97
43	70	Dolph Camilli	1938	127
44	70	Tony Perez	1973	152
45	70	Carlos Pena	2009	135
46	69	Babe Herman	1934	100
47	69	Jeff Bagwell	1999	177
48	69	Larry Doby	1955	119
49	69	Chuck Klein	1936	87
50	69	Jason Bay	2010	97
51	69	Nelson Cruz	2012	115
52	69	Jose Abreu	2018	114
53	69	Jim Gentile	1965	110
54	69	Cecil Fielder	1995	118
55	69	Matt Holliday	2011	136
56	69	Hank Aaron	1965	156
57	69	Mark Teixeira	2011	127
58	68	Al Simmons	1933	114
59	68	Chris Carter	2018	0	DNP
60	68	Charlie Keller	1948	108
61	68	Cliff Johnson	1979	133
62	68	Lance Berkman	2007	128
63	68	Brandon Moss	2015	91
64	68	Bobby Bonds	1977	128
65	68	Adrian Gonzalez	2013	121
66	68	Lou Gehrig	1934	186
67	68	Kendrys Morales	2014	82
68	68	Hank Greenberg	1942	0	DNP
69	68	Ken Phelps	1986	143
70	68	Dave Winfield	1983	134
71	68	Mike Piazza	2000	154
72	68	Wally Berger	1937	113
73	67	Dick Stuart	1964	102
74	67	Mickey Mantle	1963	162
75	67	Jimmie Foxx	1939	177
76	67	Lee May	1974	116
77	67	Willie Mays	1962	164
78	67	Harry Heilmann	1926	146
79	67	Willie Stargell	1971	174
80	67	Aaron Robinson	1946	129
81	67	Ernie Banks	1962	111
82	67	Sammy Sosa	2000	150
83	67	Ryan Braun	2015	125
84	66	Hack Wilson	1931	120
85	66	Glenn Davis	1992	111
86	66	Mark Reynolds	2015	93
87	66	Bob Allison	1966	108
88	66	Frank Robinson	1967	174
89	66	Boog Powell	1973	129
90	66	Yoenis Cespedes	2017	123
91	66	Eddie Mathews	1963	139
92	66	Jim Rice	1984	108
93	66	Jack Cust	2010	114
94	65	Jack Clark	1987	163
95	65	Adam LaRoche	2011	76
96	65	Larry Walker	1998	151
97	65	Dave Parker	1982	93
98	65	Howard Johnson	1992	98
99	65	Johnny Bench	1979	131
100	65	Frank Howard	1968	159

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Perhaps it was an act of divine providence that someone named Just Dingers Martinez would end up playing professional baseball. Public records may indicate that his given name is Julio Daniel, but we know the truth. Martinez has quietly been one of the best right-handed hitters in the game for years now, and the Diamondbacks got him for a song from Detroit at midseason. He touched down in Arizona and promptly did his best to live up to that name of his, which the Diamondbacks' broadcasters were so fond of calling him. He went as far as to have a four-homer game, only the 18th player to ever do so. He also hit for plenty of average, finishing above .300 for the third time in four years. Most impressively he launched 45 homers despite missing 43 games, which makes you wonder what he can do if he plays a full season.
2017		While the Tigers struck gold on this homeriffic corner outfielder for cheap, it's the "outfielder" part that gives long-term concern in Martinez's walk year. He has a fabulous arm, but otherwise struggled mightily on batted balls in his fiefdom. His attempt at a running catch in June resulted in a wall collision that broke his wrist, sidelining him for 40 games. But his very next at-bat was the stuff of legends: tie-game, pinch-hitter, Chris Sale on the mound and the first pitch went 440 feet into the center field shrubbery. All discussions of Martinez come back to his power. He led all right fielders in OPS, but if his right fielding is a liability, he can easily pass as one of the league's top first basemen.
2016		Just when we thought 2014 was a breakout/overachievement year, Martinez broke out again in '15; who knows how many more boxes he's trapped inside. The All-Star set the Tigers mark for most home runs in a season by a right fielder, and that was Al Kaline's position. Nine of Martinez's homers were in the eighth inning or later, and 17 of them were to the right of dead center. He is now an elite two-tool player, the second being the throwing arm, one of the most accurate on the corners. He swings far too much to get the OBP beyond .350 and possesses unremarkable speed and defensive range. He cannot carry a lineup, but he can be the Roger Maris. It has now been two years since Martinez was released by the Astros to make room for Robbie Grossman.
2015		Last year, we wrote that "mediocrity ... will be what sends Martinez to pasture for good." Sure, Detroit's population is dwindling but "pastoral" is not entirely descriptive. His perceived mediocrity led him there, though, as he was released by the Astros during spring training. Thereafter, he became anything but mediocre. A piping hot April in Triple-A forced him into Detroit's patchwork outfield and he eventually secured the left field job for the season. Martinez took the initiative to retool his swing and became a feared no. 5 hitter, leading the AL in late-inning home runs—closers love fastballs and so does he. He'll deserve to start in a corner, but expecting another batting line straight from the George Brett archives would be a bit much.
2014		Knee and wrist injuries sidelined Martinez for two months, further dimming his major-league outlook in a season in which he was below average in every aspect of the game. (He was two-for-two stealing bases, at least?) That Martinez finished seventh on the Astros in plate appearances despite his ugly, ugly season is either an indictment of the team or a sign that the plan (no. 1 overall draft pick secured! Again!) is working. Martinez hit the absolute snot out of the ball in the minors, but the swing mechanics haven't translated to big-league success, so, with an invasion of sexy prospects twirling their way into the Astros' outfield, mediocrity, rather than injuries, will be what sends Martinez to pasture for good.
2013		In the “you pick the punch line” contest, the Astros sent Martinez, then the team's RBI leader, to the minors on August 10. Martinez has always had a scouts-defying swing, and has had to over-produce to earn his chances. So the fact that his walk and home-run rates (in addition to his RBIs) remained about the same in 2012 wasn't enough, given that his production of base hits (especially doubles) dropped. He didn't do anything during his demotion to inspire confidence, and with nothing to offer defensively or on the basepaths, his career has started down the path of the “Brett Wallace Express” to Quadruple-A.
2012		Martinez can hit. He hasn't been highly regarded as a prospect due to an unconventional swing and a flat swing plane that's expected to limit his power, but he escaped the minors after just 1261 plate appearances and hit .342/.407/.551 combined in that time. He entered 2011 with an above-average defensive reputation, but that's been downgraded—by both scouting reports and metrics—to below-average. His 2011 TAv wasn't suggestive of the middle-of-the-order hitter he's expected to be, but Martinez hadn't played full-season ball until 2010, so more growth can be expected in 2012—and beyond—than from the typical 24-year-old second-year player. While Martinez sacrifices some power with his batting approach, he blasts line drives all around the diamond. He may swing and miss a lot early in the count, but his approach allows him to avoid striking out—expect his major-league strikeout rate to decline from over 20 percent to somewhere near his Double-A rate of 14.9.
2011		Martinez has accomplished quite a lot since becoming the Astros' 20th-round draft pick out of Division-II Nova Southeastern University in 2009. He won the short-season New York-Penn League batting title in his professional debut, then took home the Sally League MVP award last year, earning a promotion to Double-A. Questions still surround Martinez, most of them concerning whether he will develop enough power to play a corner outfield spot in the major leagues (you can dismiss all those home runs at Lexington). He'll have to, because he lacks the range to play center. He will try to take another step toward answering that question in the affirmative as he returns to Corpus Christi to start this season, but it's hard not to like what he's done to this point.

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