Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	85	Jayson Werth	2009	127
2	84	Brad Hawpe	2009	115
3	82	Will Venable	2013	102
4	81	Ryan Church	2009	88
5	80	Brennan Boesch	2015	40
6	80	Jay Buhner	1995	133
7	80	Kirk Gibson	1987	119
8	79	Jonny Gomes	2011	96
9	79	Josh Willingham	2009	127
10	79	Dustan Mohr	2006	62
11	78	Mark Trumbo	2016	127
12	78	Michael Saunders	2017	61
13	78	Nelson Cruz	2011	120
14	78	Allen Craig	2015	63
15	78	Reggie Sanders	1998	97
16	78	Carlos Gonzalez	2016	106
17	78	Luke Scott	2008	111
18	78	Xavier Nady	2009	77
19	77	Corey Hart	2012	110
20	77	Ben Francisco	2012	79
21	77	David Freese	2013	88
22	76	Ryan Raburn	2011	88
23	76	Justin Maxwell	2014	49
24	76	Hunter Pence	2013	119
25	76	Cliff Floyd	2003	123
26	76	John Mayberry	2014	99
27	76	Shawn Green	2003	111
28	76	Jay Bruce	2017	115
29	76	Michael Cuddyer	2009	121
30	76	Jeromy Burnitz	1999	128
31	76	Jesse Barfield	1990	120
32	75	Shin-Soo Choo	2013	136
33	75	Alex Gordon	2014	125
34	75	Jason Bay	2009	132
35	75	Tommy Pham	2018	121
36	75	Carlos Gomez	2016	83
37	75	George Altman	1963	97
38	75	Fred Lewis	2011	77
39	75	Scott Hairston	2010	86
40	74	Jimmie Hall	1968	80
41	74	Jimmy Wynn	1972	148
42	74	George Hendrick	1980	129
43	74	Josh Phelps	2008	69
44	74	Sixto Lezcano	1984	137
45	74	Ryan Ludwick	2009	111
46	74	Dwight Evans	1982	145
47	74	Rick Ankiel	2010	71
48	74	Khris Davis	2018	139
49	73	Elmer Smith	1923	110
50	73	Seth Smith	2013	97
51	73	Wilson Betemit	2012	96
52	73	Rick Monday	1976	127
53	73	Gary Matthews	1981	133
54	73	Justin Upton	2018	117
55	73	Leon Roberts	1981	108
56	73	Gil Hodges	1954	128
57	73	Scott Van Slyke	2017	77
58	73	Yoenis Cespedes	2016	132
59	73	Al Ferrara	1970	126
60	73	J.D. Drew	2006	110
61	73	B.J. Upton	2015	89
62	73	Andre Dawson	1985	101
63	73	Todd Frazier	2016	113
64	73	Bobby Bonds	1976	110
65	73	Raul Mondesi	2001	112
66	73	Jose Guillen	2006	78
67	73	Jose Bautista	2011	177
68	73	Wally Post	1960	134
69	73	Dan Uggla	2010	135
70	72	Johnny Briggs	1974	112
71	72	Matt Kemp	2015	103
72	72	Willie Crawford	1977	83
73	72	Jose Cruz Jr.	2004	101
74	72	Gabe Gross	2010	72
75	72	Bobby Abreu	2004	141
76	72	George Selkirk	1938	109
77	72	Curtis Granderson	2011	138
78	72	Johnny Blanchard	1963	119
79	72	Richard Hidalgo	2005	104
80	72	Ben Zobrist	2011	120
81	72	Carlos Beltran	2007	119
82	72	Craig Monroe	2007	62
83	72	Jason Kubel	2012	120
84	72	Austin Kearns	2010	100
85	72	Terrmel Sledge	2007	86
86	72	Milton Bradley	2008	150
87	72	Hank Bauer	1953	127
88	72	David Justice	1996	123
89	72	Matthew Lecroy	2006	90
90	72	Brant Alyea	1971	77
91	72	Mark Whiten	1997	91
92	72	Colby Rasmus	2017	103
93	72	Mike Marshall	1990	86
94	71	Rickie Weeks	2013	78
95	71	Tom Brunansky	1991	94
96	71	Kiki Cuyler	1929	148
97	71	Brad Wilkerson	2007	105
98	71	Jeff Burroughs	1981	105
99	71	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2015	98
100	71	Ival Goodman	1939	117

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		At 28, Souza finally became the hitter PECOTA thought he would be at 25. He walked more than he had in his first two seasons with the Rays combined, he hit for more power and (most importantly) he brought down his catastrophic strikeout rate. He's not the athlete who once saved a no-hitter for Max Scherzer, but he demonstrated that he can be a dangerous enough slugger to make that matter only a little. Then, with six weeks left in the season he utterly fell to pieces, leaving ample room to doubt whether his improvements will stick for the long haul. If they don't, Souza's declining defense in the outfield corners will become a major problem.
2017		For those of you who think Souza’s greatest crime is simply not being Trea Turner or Wil Myers—the two stars that emerged from the Rays’ infamous three-team-deal that brought him to Tampa—you’re mistaken. The real felony here is Souza’s unconscionable contract rate. In addition to being one of the 10 worst in baseball at making contact last season, he struck out at a higher rate than everyone in baseball except for Miguel Sano and walked only once for every five strikeouts. If you want to make excuses for his poor performance you can point to the injuries to his finger and waist that slowed him down (and eventually led to offseason hip surgery), but the maladies just keep piling up and the Rays didn’t bring him in to be a replacement-level outfielder. He’ll get another chance this year—PECOTA is still bullish on his future—but until he does the Rays will feel a twinge every time Myers goes yard and Souza swings over a breaking pitch.
2016		PECOTA did Souza no favors. Brought in to replace former top prospect and ROY Wil Myers, the old-for-his-levels rookie was given a .297 TAv projection with 3.7 WARP. He ended the season with a slightly below-average TAv and wasn't productive or present long enough to post a single win above replacement. He dealt with two hand-related injuries; the more serious one, a broken hand, zapped a month of playing time. Around the injuries, Souza struggled to make contact and was prone to stretches of high strikeouts and no production. The power potential is evident; he has tremendous strength and will work a count—sometimes to his detriment, as he shows a tendency to let hittable pitches pass. Failure to meet lofty expectations aside, Souza is an enjoyable character, works hard on his craft, and still has a (slightly less enthusiastic) admirer in PECOTA.
2015		There's no getting around mentioning The Catch; unfortunately, science has yet to come up with a way to embed GIFs into print. As amazing as it is to close a season with a no-hitter-saving dive, Souza had a year to remember from start to finish. It's been a strange journey, from toolsy draft pick to bad seed (he was suspended for PEDs in 2010, then quit his team after an altercation with his manager in 2011) to rededicated born-again Christian to legitimate prospect. With a full outfield in Washington and two prospects with better defensive skills (Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin) in the upper minors, Souza is probably happy to be in Tampa, where he landed in the second half of the Wil Myers trade; he should have a clean look at a corner outfield job this year, though Mikie Mahtook looms.
2014		The Nationals are deep in prospects who are either interesting but aged or light years away from the majors, and Souza fits in with the former. Drafted in 2007 as a toolsy third-round gamble, Souza languished in the low minors before something clicked late in 2011, with the results bearing fruit in 2012. At 25, he finally got his first crack at Double-A and produced the league's second-best OPS. He might be old for the level but he has legitimate throw, run and power tools. A converted third baseman, his outfield defense still requires work, but there’s a major-league future here.
2009		Steven Souza has one of the larger disconnects between his stats and his scouting reports, with some high expectations for him to develop more power and cut down on his strikeouts.

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