Baseball Prospectus

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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 61)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	79	Tom Seaver	1979	3.56
2	74	Pedro Martinez	2006	4.82
3	72	Mike Scott	1989	3.42
4	71	Ted Lilly	2010	3.86
5	69	Javier Vazquez	2011	4.25
6	69	Bobo Newsom	1942	4.80
7	68	Whit Wyatt	1942	3.40
8	68	Bert Blyleven	1985	3.71
9	67	James Shields	2016	6.04
10	66	John Smoltz	2001	3.66
11	66	Dazzy Vance	1925	3.90
12	66	Randy Johnson	1998	3.76
13	66	Walter Johnson	1922	3.45
14	65	Dennis Eckersley	1989	1.56
15	65	Curt Schilling	2001	3.02
16	65	Tex Hughson	1950	0.00	DNP
17	65	Jason Schmidt	2007	7.01
18	64	Justin Verlander	2017	3.45
19	64	Jason Hammel	2017	5.44
20	63	Sam Jones	1960	4.31
21	63	Bob Gibson	1970	3.40
22	63	Charlie Root	1933	3.05
23	63	Virgil Trucks	1951	5.18
24	62	J.A. Happ	2017	3.96
25	62	Colby Lewis	2014	5.65
26	62	Jake Peavy	2015	3.66
27	62	J.J. Putz	2011	2.33
28	62	Roy Halladay	2011	2.50
29	62	Cole Hamels	2018	4.39
30	62	Johnny Allen	1939	4.75
31	61	Matt Thornton	2011	4.98
32	61	Marco Estrada	2018	5.70
33	61	Mike Mussina	2003	3.61
34	61	Pascual Perez	1991	3.18
35	61	Adam Wainwright	2016	4.85
36	61	Sergio Romo	2017	3.72
37	61	A.J. Burnett	2011	5.44
38	61	Ryan Dempster	2011	4.94
39	61	Erik Bedard	2013	4.95
40	61	Jim Bunning	1966	2.61
41	60	Rafael Betancourt	2009	3.38
42	60	Jeff Fassero	1997	4.15
43	60	Jakie May	1930	5.81
44	60	Jon Lester	2018	3.72
45	60	Ervin Santana	2017	3.62
46	60	Anibal Sanchez	2018	3.16
47	60	Francisco Rodriguez	2016	3.70
48	60	Darren O'Day	2017	3.58
49	60	Lee Smith	1992	3.36
50	60	Josh Beckett	2014	3.19
51	59	Nolan Ryan	1981	2.05
52	59	Ted Higuera	1992	0.00	DNP
53	59	Connie Johnson	1957	3.46
54	59	Ray Caldwell	1922	0.00	DNP
55	59	Cliff Lee	2013	3.11
56	58	Steve Carlton	1979	4.02
57	58	Dolf Luque	1925	3.26
58	58	Johan Santana	2013	0.00	DNP
59	58	Roy Oswalt	2012	6.25
60	58	John Hiller	1977	4.35
61	58	Tom Henke	1992	3.07
62	58	Bruce Hurst	1992	3.98
63	58	Zack Greinke	2018	3.34
64	58	Preacher Roe	1950	3.45
65	58	Pat Malone	1937	6.57
66	58	Tommy Bridges	1941	4.03
67	58	Scott Kazmir	2018	0.00	DNP
68	58	Jack Scott	1926	4.94
69	58	Trevor Hoffman	2002	3.03
70	58	Kazuhiro Sasaki	2002	3.56
71	57	Hisashi Iwakuma	2015	3.68
72	57	Dan Wheeler	2012	8.76
73	57	Joaquin Benoit	2012	3.93
74	57	Kevin Millwood	2009	3.99
75	57	Roger Clemens	1997	2.22
76	57	Urban Shocker	1925	4.10
77	57	Octavio Dotel	2008	4.70
78	57	Chris Carpenter	2009	2.29
79	57	Gavin Floyd	2017	0.00	DNP
80	57	Jesse Chavez	2018	2.64
81	57	Bob Shawkey	1925	5.02
82	56	Luis Tiant	1975	4.36	DNP
83	56	Jim Brewer	1972	1.84
84	56	Esteban Loaiza	2006	5.35
85	56	Kerry Wood	2011	4.24
86	56	Harry Brecheen	1949	3.90
87	56	Vic Raschi	1953	3.48
88	56	Ubaldo Jimenez	2018	0.00	DNP
89	56	Mark Langston	1995	4.90
90	56	Grant Balfour	2012	2.53
91	56	George Earnshaw	1934	5.10
92	55	George Pipgras	1934	0.00
93	55	Bartolo Colon	2007	6.61
94	55	Ben Sheets	2013	0.00	DNP
95	55	Rollie Fingers	1981	1.15
96	55	Arthur Rhodes	2004	5.35
97	55	John Candelaria	1988	3.96
98	55	Ron Reed	1977	2.97
99	55	Rick Aguilera	1996	5.50
100	55	Jerry Blevins	2018	5.06

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		In snapping up his third Cy Young last year, Scherzer put himself in exclusive company—every pitcher with three or more is a Hall of Famer, save Clayton Kershaw (on his way) and Roger Clemens (uh, complicated). Perhaps most impressive of all is that last season was the best among Scherzer’s Cy Young campaigns. Though his velocity hasn’t dipped as he’s crossed over into his thirties, he’s still begun relying on his fastball a little less, with last season becoming the first time it accounted for fewer than half of his pitches. And he still ended up with the highest strikeout rate of his career, with the fewest home runs allowed since coming to Washington. There are a lot of years left on that contract, but it doesn’t look like Scherzer will be slowing down any time soon.
2017		Scherzer now boasts a Cy Young for each eye color after becoming just the 18th pitcher in history to win the award multiple times. He did, however, become the first to win it while leading the league in long balls allowed, and he did it despite posting his highest DRA since 2011. The stuff actually took a step forward, somehow, helping him generate career-best whiff rates with all three of his secondary pitches. His performance went next level against righties in particular, as they managed their way on base at just a paltry .189 clip. And perhaps most interestingly, he evolved into the rarest of power pitchers who actually gains velocity after his 30th birthday; he posted the highest sitting average on his four-seamer, nearly 1.5 mph harder than it had been clocked at as recently as 2014. With two years left before the escalators on his backloaded contract go off the rails, this deal might not look so bad after all.
2016		Scherzer spent nearly half the season as a below-average pitcher, surrendering a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts from July 7th to September 23rd. Wrapped around were the other 19 starts, in which Mad Max was unstoppable: three starts with Game Scores above 95, two no-hitters and a 1.66 ERA. His final start of the season, a 17-strikeout virtual perfect game (save for an infield error), might be the most dominant pitching performance in the sport's history. It's undeniably close. Two versions of Scherzer, as different as his eye colors. What made the difference? He becomes susceptible to the home run ball when his mechanics fail him and cause him to miss location. In the summer stretch of mediocrity, hitters slugged 20 of their 27 homers against him.
2015		It took six years, 179 starts, 81 wins, but Max Scherzer finally earned his first complete game, becoming the first pitcher to throw his first one after winning a Cy Young. That sounds like the sort of thing traditionalists would needle him for, but he's actually a workhorse, just a new-age kind of one: He tossed six-plus frames in 28 starts and now ranks sixth in the majors in innings (and fourth in pitches) since 2013. As an extreme fly-baller he might give up solo homers in smaller parks, but little else. His intelligence is off the charts and into the next guy's chart, so even if his mechanics ever revert to 2009-era Scherzer, he still has the brainpower and armpower to gut through six innings on a bad day.
2014		Even on his worst days it is obvious how talented Scherzer is, but prior to 2013 he managed only short bursts of his best days. In 2010, he was demoted after eight starts, then returned to post a 2.46 ERA for four months. In 2011, he turned in six starts of six or more earned runs. In 2012, he ended April with a 7.77 ERA. In each case, he was undone by lefties. Scherzer finally pocketed the slider in favor of a devastating curveball against southpaws—they produced just a .539 OPS against the pitch—and repeatedly credited the change with his turnaround in 2013. Notably, he improved by just as much against righties, who hit just .165/.219/.275 against him, suggesting his breakout goes deeper than he allows. If the Tigers haven't locked him up by the time you read this, then it'll be his walk year.
2013		Reason number 4,281,930 Why ERAs Alone Can Misinform: Scherzer’s didn’t get below 5.00 until June 28, perhaps leading some to believe that his outing that day was the “turning point” of his season. Well, when you give up 9 percent of your entire year’s earned-run total in your first outing (seven of 78), in fewer than three innings, it will take a while to work it off. Scherzer's 3.22 FIP for the year tells the story of how great he was on the whole, and if he can tame his violent delivery for 32 starts, avoiding the meltdown outing every fifth or sixth time out, then a truly special season will be the end result, complete with Cy Young consideration.
2012		Last year Scherzer didn’t dominate the way he had during the second half of 2010 and posted the worst numbers of his short career, but a quick look under the hood shows he is the same high-upside proposition he has always been. His walk and strikeout rates held steady, and though his ERA climbed almost a full run, his 3.70 xFIP (a fielding independent measure that assumes a normal number of home runs per fly ball allowed) was a virtual match for his career numbers. In other words, Scherzer was the same hurler he has always been except for a few extra souvenirs. Since that last bit tends to vary greatly from year to year, Scherzer is a great bet for a breakout this year. He still struggles against lefties and would benefit from an improved changeup, but if he can sort that out, his upper-90s fastball gives him ace potential.
2011		Scherzer struggled out of the gate last year, posting a 7.29 ERA through his first eight starts before being sent down to Toledo to fix his mechanics. It didn’t take long to find the problem (a matter of arm positioning to stay on top of the ball), and when Scherzer returned he was lights-out. From May 30 forward, he posted a 2.46 ERA, held opponents to a .220/.293/.328 batting line, and struck out more than a batter per inning—extrapolate those numbers to a full season, and you have a Cy Young candidate. Scherzer is known for his heavy, moving, low-90s fastball, but it’s the continued improvement of his slider and changeup that has toggled his ace descriptor from “future” to “current.”
2010		Widely considered one of the best young arms in the game, the 24-year-old Scherzer did not disappoint in 2009, making 30 starts while posting component stats that suggest an ERA closer to 3.44 than his official 4.12 (as per SIERA; see the team essay). Known for his blistering heat and a passion for sabermetrics, Scherzer said that his goal was to be a four-win player last year. Though he fell short by 1.5 WARP, his ability to get strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground bode well moving forward. If he can reduce the rate of free passes issued while sustaining the aforementioned attributes, we're looking at a perennial All-Star and a third potential ace for the Diamondbacks.
2009		Scherzer failed to make the big-league club out of camp, but forced his way back up by not allowing an earned run in his first 17 innings while striking out 29. In his first appearance in the majors he retired all 13 batters he faced while striking out seven of them, but from there he was more inconsistent. Being merely mortal, Scherzer would almost have to be more inconsistent than that, but he was either dominant or mediocre, depending on his command and the quality of his slider. He also missed some time with a sore shoulder. His fastball is a monster at 93-97 mph, and if the slider goes from one that flashes as plus to a consistent plus, he's an All-Star.
2008		With the new signing deadline in place, Scherzer holds the distinction of being the last of the year-long draft holdouts. Signed just before this year's draft after being picked eleventh overall in 2006, Scherzer was nothing short of spectacular in his first three professional starts at High-A, but when he got bumped up to Double-A Mobile, he found it harder going. Scherzer has an outstanding fastball that gets into the mid 90s and features heavy sink, but the good things to say about him end there, as his command and secondary stuff need a lot of work. Most scouts see him as a reliever in the end, but the good news is that he might prove to be good enough to close if he can develop just one solid second offering.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Max Scherzer threw 48,501 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2023, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2023, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph), also mixing in a Slider (84mph), Change (84mph), Curve (75mph) and Cutter (89mph). He also rarely threw a Sinker (89mph).