Baseball Prospectus

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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 78)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	84	C.J. Wilson	2010	3.66
2	83	Jesse Crain	2011	2.89
3	82	Dennys Reyes	2006	1.42
4	82	Tony Pena	2011	6.64
5	81	Joba Chamberlain	2015	6.51
6	81	Neal Cotts	2009	7.36
7	81	Curtis Leskanic	1997	5.55
8	81	Matt Albers	2012	3.13
9	80	Justin Grimm	2018	10.38
10	80	Todd Wellemeyer	2008	3.94
11	80	J.P. Howell	2012	3.04
12	80	Gary Lucas	1984	3.40
13	80	Chris Ray	2011	4.96
14	80	Manny Delcarmen	2011	0.00	DNP
15	80	Kevin Correia	2010	5.52
16	80	Bill McGee	1939	3.82
17	80	Roy Lee Jackson	1983	4.79
18	80	Jumbo Elliott	1930	4.27
19	80	Mark Eichhorn	1990	3.83
20	80	Ricardo Rincon	1999	4.84
21	79	Mark Lowe	2012	3.43
22	79	Neftali Feliz	2017	6.46
23	79	Francisco Liriano	2013	3.02
24	79	Jack Wilson	1941	6.65
25	79	Russ Christopher	1947	3.54
26	79	Jose Mijares	2014	0.00	DNP
27	79	Dan Wheeler	2007	5.79
28	79	Kyle McClellan	2013	7.71
29	79	Mike Timlin	1995	3.00
30	79	Daniel Hudson	2016	5.82
31	79	Lance Lynn	2016	0.00	DNP
32	79	Felix Doubront	2017	0.00	DNP
33	79	Jason Christiansen	1999	4.06
34	78	Fernando Rodney	2006	4.52
35	78	Rafael Perez	2011	3.86
36	78	Tim Stoddard	1982	4.18
37	78	Jack Sanford	1958	4.93
38	78	Lance Cormier	2010	4.06
39	78	Kevin Gregg	2007	3.64
40	78	Bill Voiselle	1948	3.81
41	78	Derek Holland	2016	5.20
42	78	Chris Reitsma	2007	8.37
43	78	Jim Mecir	1999	3.05
44	78	Xavier Hernandez	1995	4.70
45	78	Mike Hartley	1991	4.32
46	78	Len Barker	1985	6.72
47	78	Robinson Tejeda	2011	6.14
48	78	Wandy Rodriguez	2008	4.26
49	78	Kevin Jepsen	2014	2.63
50	78	Jason Hammel	2012	3.66
51	77	Blaine Boyer	2011	10.80
52	77	Pete Vuckovich	1982	3.86
53	77	George Frazier	1984	4.08
54	77	Mace Brown	1938	5.97
55	77	Bryan Hickerson	1993	4.34
56	77	Al Holland	1982	3.82
57	77	Scott Stewart	2005	0.00	DNP
58	77	Doug Henry	1993	6.22
59	77	Bartolo Colon	2002	3.28
60	77	Seth McClung	2010	0.00	DNP
61	77	Casey Janssen	2011	2.26
62	77	Adam Ottavino	2015	0.00
63	77	Steve Hamilton	1964	3.58
64	77	Brett Cecil	2016	4.17
65	77	Jose Arredondo	2013	0.00	DNP
66	77	Dolly Gray	1927	5.68
67	77	Wil Ledezma	2010	7.32
68	77	Sam McDowell	1972	4.71
69	77	Ray Culp	1971	4.01
70	77	Joaquin Benoit	2007	3.07
71	77	Bill Campbell	1978	4.44
72	76	Melido Perez	1995	5.97
73	76	Ken Howell	1990	5.06
74	76	Zach McAllister	2017	2.32
75	76	Johnny Sain	1947	4.06
76	76	Windy McCall	1955	4.50
77	76	Van Lingle Mungo	1940	2.45
78	76	Jerry Blevins	2013	3.45
79	76	Aaron Loup	2017	4.21
80	76	Wesley Wright	2014	3.54
81	76	Juan Oviedo	2011	4.20
82	76	Don Heinkel	1989	6.49
83	76	Tug McGraw	1974	4.47
84	76	Billy O'Dell	1962	4.04	DNP
85	76	Matt Moore	2018	7.24
86	76	Lefty Mills	1939	7.07
87	76	Jack Billingham	1972	3.43
88	76	Terry Adams	2002	5.00
89	76	Casey Fossum	2007	8.41
90	76	Chris Short	1967	2.44
91	76	Rosy Ryan	1927	0.00	DNP
92	76	Marc Rzepczynski	2015	7.46
93	76	Gary Lavelle	1978	3.78
94	76	John Habyan	1993	4.31
95	76	Travis Wood	2016	3.54
96	76	Cliff Politte	2003	5.84
97	76	Bob Locker	1967	2.53
98	76	Mike MacDougal	2006	1.55
99	76	Larry Andersen	1982	6.33
100	76	Randy Myers	1992	4.29

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2016		Mejia's 162-game suspension for anabolic steroids—his second steroid suspension in two seasons—marked something of a first in our cultural conversation about PEDs. Rather than lamenting the integrity of the game, or debating the ethics of this drug versus that drug, everyone just called Mejia a selfish idiot. While it may not be an adequate defense either of his ethics or his idiocy, consider the long injury history and the bizarre way in which the Mets jerked him around from starter to reliever to starter to closer. At the very least, this was not a man secure about his health, his role or his future. Would that make stanozolol the right move? Well, maybe. But if he was insecure before, how's he feeling now?
2015		You probably heard most about Mejia for his “excessive” postgame celebrations—a laughable controversy in which the media seemed to care far more than the players themselves—but his real story of 2014 was one of self-discovery and heartwarming deliverance. After injury upon injury, role reversals and re-reversals, Mejia flourished as a closer when Bobby Parnell went down and Jose Valverde was Jose Valverde. Although his curve and slider are functionally very similar, a four-pitch offering (with no four-seam fastball) is odd for a closer and difficult to square up in a single at-bat. Mejia has taken his lumps and succeeded in spite of it; you can't blame the guy for doing a little dance.
2014		You have to feel for Mejia. First he inexplicably made the Mets as a reliever out of 2010 spring training, botching his burgeoning development as a starter. Once he�d cleared that hurdle, he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2011. After recovering from that, he reported to Triple-A Buffalo in 2012, where the Mets once again couldn�t decide if he should start or relieve. And finally, after all that, Mejia made five solid major-league starts in 2013, with 27 strikeouts against four walks in 27 innings � and on August 28th, he underwent season-ending surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. There�s a great pitcher in here, we swear�try as the Mets and Mother Nature might to keep him down.
2013		Mejia posted good groundball numbers in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he didn't miss bats at Buffalo. The Mets called him up anyway in September and gave him two relief appearances and three starts (two bad, one decent). Mejia, who is short-ish and solidly built, pumped his fastball in at 95, with a little extra in relief. Scouts were calling Mejia a future reliever long before he went under the knife and the lost development time and questions about whether his body can handle the rigors of 200 innings per year only give that analysis more force. He should be a filthy setup man or closer, though.
2012		The Mets rushed Mejia to the big leagues in 2010, but he was well on his way to getting back there legitimately in 2011 when his elbow went pop, leading to a lost season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. That will also cost him spring training and the first month or two of the 2012 season. Lost development time almost assures his long-term role is in the bullpen, but with an explosive mid-to-upper-90s fastball, he could be part of an impressive power bullpen of the future.
2011		Mejia held his own in Double-A as a teenager in 2009, striking out 9.5 per nine. His success excited New York's front office, which had enrolled the right-hander in an accelerated development program designed to propel the team's top prospects to the majors at a younger age than usual. Even if implemented properly, the program ran the risk of stunting the development of those involved, and unsurprisingly, Mejia's season became a prime example of how not to bring a young hurler along: the Mets stuck him in the bullpen, forced him to focus almost entirely on his fastball�80 percent of his pitches thrown in relief were heaters, which didn't help his change or bender�and used him for all of 27 2/3 innings in that role before sending him back to the minors, where he should have been to begin with. Mejia returned to the rotation in time to make three starts toward the end of the year, but 2010 did little for his growth as a pitcher. He remains an excellent prospect, and will spend this season starting in Triple-A under the aegis of the new administration.
2010		The most exciting young arm in the system, Mejia struck out more than a batter per inning at Double-A as a teenager, and his fastball is as exciting as the numbers suggest. While a little undersized, his thick, muscular build provides 92-96 mph fastballs, and he can maintain that velocity all night long. The pitch also has both horizontal and vertical movement, almost dancing as it gets to the plate. Mejia's changeup is advanced for his age; really the only knock against him are occasional control lapses and some real struggles in developing a consistent breaking ball. He's been rushed through the system so far, but the Mets will slow things down a bit in 2010, keeping him at Double-A in the hope that he can find enough beyond the fastball to turn into an impact starter.
2009		Dominican righty Jenrry Mejia has the best pure arm in the system, with a fastball that regularly reaches the high 90s; he'll join Flores and Marte as part of the fearsome collection of talent at Low-A Savannah.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Jenrry Mejia threw 3,112 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2023, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2023, he relied primarily on his Cutter (91mph) and Slider (83mph).