Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	86	Chris Jakubauskas	2010	27.00
2	86	Billy Traber	2011	0.00	DNP
3	85	Donovan Hand	2017	0.00	DNP
4	85	Justin Germano	2014	11.81
5	85	Ruddy Lugo	2011	0.00	DNP
6	84	Garrett Mock	2014	0.00	DNP
7	84	Clayton Mortensen	2016	0.00	DNP
8	84	Jeff Harris	2006	5.40
9	83	Jason Shiell	2008	0.00	DNP
10	83	Todd Redmond	2016	0.00	DNP
11	83	Everett Teaford	2015	1.59
12	83	Shane Loux	2011	0.00	DNP
13	83	David Huff	2016	16.88
14	82	Matt Ginter	2009	0.00	DNP
15	82	Roman Colon	2011	0.00	DNP
16	82	Brad Lincoln	2016	0.00	DNP
17	82	Jason Grilli	2008	3.12
18	82	Guillermo Moscoso	2015	0.00	DNP
19	82	Jon Adkins	2009	0.00	DNP
20	81	Dylan Axelrod	2017	0.00	DNP
21	81	Eddie Bonine	2012	0.00	DNP
22	81	Clay Condrey	2007	5.40
23	81	Michael Tejera	2008	0.00	DNP
24	81	Chuck James	2013	0.00	DNP
25	81	Mike Burns	2010	0.00	DNP
26	81	Dirk Hayhurst	2012	0.00	DNP
27	81	Eric DuBose	2007	0.00	DNP
28	80	Josh Zeid	2018	0.00	DNP
29	80	Jason Stanford	2008	0.00	DNP
30	80	Steve Bray	2012	0.00	DNP
31	80	Lenny DiNardo	2011	0.00	DNP
32	80	Carlos Torres	2014	3.25
33	80	Brian Bass	2013	0.00	DNP
34	80	J.D. Martin	2014	0.00	DNP
35	79	Jerome Williams	2013	4.94
36	79	Darin Downs	2016	0.00	DNP
37	79	Tim Corcoran	2009	0.00	DNP
38	79	Randy Flores	2007	4.91
39	79	Scott MacRae	2006	0.00	DNP
40	79	Wade LeBlanc	2016	4.35
41	78	Fernando Nieve	2014	0.00	DNP
42	78	Brian Stokes	2011	0.00	DNP
43	78	Willie Collazo	2011	0.00	DNP
44	78	Andrew Albers	2017	4.83
45	78	Jeff Manship	2016	4.15
46	78	Yohan Flande	2017	0.00	DNP
47	78	P.J. Walters	2016	0.00	DNP
48	78	Eric Junge	2008	0.00	DNP
49	78	Randy Keisler	2007	6.23
50	78	Tony Pena	2012	0.00	DNP
51	78	Angel Castro	2014	0.00	DNP
52	78	Duane Below	2017	0.00	DNP
53	78	Eric Stults	2011	6.00
54	78	Chris Gissell	2009	0.00	DNP
55	77	David Pauley	2014	0.00	DNP
56	77	Jeff Fulchino	2011	5.71
57	77	Chad Durbin	2009	4.91
58	77	Yohan Pino	2015	3.72
59	77	Bryan Bullington	2012	0.00	DNP
60	77	Doug Mathis	2014	0.00	DNP
61	77	Scott Carroll	2016	11.57
62	77	Chris Leroux	2015	0.00	DNP
63	77	Tyler Cloyd	2018	8.66
64	77	Angel Guzman	2013	0.00	DNP
65	77	D.J. Carrasco	2008	3.72
66	77	Derek Hankins	2015	0.00	DNP
67	77	Spike Lundberg	2008	0.00	DNP
68	77	Daniel McCutchen	2014	11.57
69	77	Jason Bergmann	2013	0.00	DNP
70	77	Joshua Miller	2010	0.00	DNP
71	77	Andy Van Hekken	2011	0.00	DNP
72	76	Travis Minix	2009	0.00	DNP
73	76	Victor Marte	2012	4.91
74	76	Brian Burres	2012	0.00	DNP
75	76	Justin Thomas	2015	0.00	DNP
76	76	Philip Humber	2014	0.00	DNP
77	76	Brandon Puffer	2007	0.00	DNP
78	76	Brad Thomas	2009	0.00	DNP
79	76	Vin Mazzaro	2018	0.00	DNP
80	76	Brian Baker	2014	0.00	DNP
81	76	Merkin Valdez	2013	0.00	DNP
82	76	Scott Downs	2007	2.33
83	76	Greg Smith	2015	0.00	DNP
84	76	Luis Perez	2016	0.00	DNP
85	76	Rick Bauer	2008	13.50
86	76	David Purcey	2013	2.49
87	76	Mark DiFelice	2008	3.32
88	76	Blaine Neal	2009	0.00	DNP
89	75	Brian Mazone	2008	0.00	DNP
90	75	Sean White	2012	0.00	DNP
91	75	Brad Salmon	2011	0.00	DNP
92	75	Mike Bacsik	2009	0.00	DNP
93	75	Toru Murata	2016	0.00	DNP
94	75	Nick Regilio	2010	0.00	DNP
95	75	Anthony Reyes	2013	0.00	DNP
96	75	Tom Shearn	2009	0.00	DNP
97	75	Ryan Glynn	2006	0.00	DNP
98	75	Jeremy Accardo	2013	0.00	DNP
99	75	Thad Weber	2016	0.00	DNP
100	75	Trey Hodges	2009	0.00	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2016		De Fratus was curiously transplanted into a long-relief role after appearing to settle into short-relief scenarios in 2014, and his numbers dropped off precipitously as a result. Only Travis Wood, a former full-time starter who also made nine starts in 54 appearances, threw more pitches in relief than De Fratus in 2015. Apparently unwilling to give the long-relief transition another year to ferment, the Phillies outrighted De Fratus off the 40-man roster following the season, and he elected free agency, then signed a one-year deal with the Mariners. If limited to more typical short-relief outings, De Fratus can hold the mid-90s with his fastball and sling an above-average slider, and given that he'll be just 28, he's a good bet to stick in a major-league role this season.
2015		De Fratus has had the stuff to be a late-inning, high-leverage reliever since arriving in the majors four years ago, but the lack of command made him too tough to trust. In 2014, he decided to sacrifice a little bit of velocity in exchange for a ton more control. The walks went down but, even more joyously, the strikeouts went up, and a lesson was learned. He's a viable candidate to close when Papelbon vacates the position.
2014		De Fratus is part of a long line of young arms that haven't lived up to expectations for the Phillies. The right-hander throws hard, with a four-seamer that lives in the mid-90s, but a flexor pronator injury in his right elbow limited his playing time and his effectiveness. Still, his 3.86 ERA adjusted for Phillieness is not bad. The team unloaded an armored truck full of cash on Jonathan Papelbon's lawn, and as a direct result will rely on an otherwise young and unproven bullpen this year. In that context, the 26-year-old De Fratus could be a stalwart with a solid effort.
2013		An elbow injury robbed De Fratus of most of the 2012 season, but he was excellent for 22 innings in Triple-A before an uneventful 11 with Philadelphia in September. Despite De Fratus posting some gaudy minor-league numbers and having plenty of experience closing games, the general consensus is that his ceiling is as a setup man, not as Papelbon’s successor.
2012		Two and a half years ago, De Fratus was a middling starting pitcher and former juco draftee in the Sally League. Like Bastardo, De Fratus demonstrates the benefit a roster of young starting prospects can have on a team’s bullpen. Once converted to relief, De Fratus racked up 36 saves across two seasons and three levels. His repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball and an above-average slider, and he has shown improved command of the latter. His changeup is still a work in progress, but plenty of hard-throwing relievers have survived with just one off-speed pitch. De Fratus made his first appearance in the majors in 2011 as a late-season call-up, but fans can expect him to play a bigger role in 2012.
2011		De Fratus showed strong results in his first full year as a reliever. The control he exhibited as a starter translated well to the bullpen, and his success carried over to the Arizona Fall League, where he was named a Rising Star and impressed scouts with his effective fastball/slider combo. Most of his mid-90s velocity comes from his lower half; fortunately, his frame looks like the kind that could handle a heavy workload in relief. His ultimate future is definitely as a reliever, but don't cry for his lost potential, as he could be a very good late-inning arm.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Justin De Fratus threw 3,302 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2017, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2017, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph) and Change (82mph), also mixing in a Cutter (85mph), Sinker (89mph) and Curve (78mph).