Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	94	Melvin Mora	2008	116
2	90	Ken Boyer	1967	98
3	89	Casey Blake	2010	90
4	89	Doug Decinces	1987	97
5	88	Juan Uribe	2015	103
6	88	Eric Chavez	2014	98
7	87	Davey Johnson	1979	0	DNP
8	87	Johnny Bench	1984	0	DNP
9	86	Jhonny Peralta	2018	0	DNP
10	84	Graig Nettles	1981	111
11	84	Frank Baker	1922	94
12	84	Richie Hebner	1984	107
13	83	Pinky Higgins	1945	0	DNP
14	83	Robin Ventura	2004	96
15	83	Ed Charles	1969	80
16	83	Sal Bando	1980	87
17	83	Jimmy Dykes	1933	88
18	83	Scott Rolen	2011	91
19	83	Art Howe	1983	0	DNP
20	82	Bobby Bonilla	1999	83
21	82	Jose Valentin	2006	104
22	82	Ron Cey	1984	110
23	81	Brandon Inge	2013	56
24	81	Mike Lowell	2010	94
25	81	Mark DeRosa	2011	77
26	81	Joe Randa	2006	85
27	81	Phil Garner	1985	91
28	81	Hank Majeski	1953	89
29	81	Pie Traynor	1935	68
30	81	Don Hoak	1964	64
31	80	Jay Bell	2002	78
32	80	Woodie Held	1968	55
33	79	Matt Williams	2002	109
34	79	Bill White	1970	0	DNP
35	79	Raul Ibanez	2008	116
36	79	Dan Uggla	2016	0	DNP
37	79	Ryan Ludwick	2015	0	DNP
38	79	Lyle Overbay	2013	91
39	79	Joe Kuhel	1942	96
40	79	Gary Matthews	2011	0	DNP
41	79	Eduardo Perez	2006	98
42	79	Don Money	1983	67
43	79	Ronnie Belliard	2011	0	DNP
44	78	Cliff Floyd	2009	62
45	78	Jose Cruz	1984	124
46	78	Harold Baines	1995	147
47	78	Gary Matthews	1987	78
48	78	Joe Gordon	1951	0	DNP
49	78	Davey Lopes	1981	82
50	78	Andres Torres	2014	0	DNP
51	78	Aramis Ramirez	2014	113
52	78	Bob Brenly	1990	0	DNP
53	78	Mickey Vernon	1954	121
54	78	Brooks Robinson	1973	93
55	78	Johnny Dickshot	1946	0	DNP
56	78	Phil Nevin	2007	0	DNP
57	78	Todd Zeile	2002	103
58	78	Ed Konetchy	1922	0	DNP
59	78	Harvey Hendrick	1934	74
60	78	Justin Morneau	2017	0	DNP
61	78	Julio Franco	1995	0	DNP
62	78	Bill Mueller	2007	0	DNP
63	78	Chet Lemon	1991	0	DNP
64	78	Don Baylor	1985	112
65	78	Jim Fregosi	1978	106
66	78	Tim Salmon	2005	0	DNP
67	78	Bill Madlock	1987	107
68	78	Dave Winfield	1988	154
69	78	Ival Goodman	1945	0	DNP
70	77	Ray Boone	1960	88
71	77	Rondell White	2008	0	DNP
72	77	Tim Wallach	1994	123
73	77	Will Clark	2000	139
74	77	Hank Bauer	1959	89
75	77	Skeeter Barnes	1993	86
76	77	Carlos Guillen	2012	0	DNP
77	77	Carl Everett	2007	0	DNP
78	77	Ron Gant	2001	92
79	77	Joe Torre	1977	65
80	77	Fred McGriff	2000	115
81	77	Andre Thornton	1986	113
82	77	Marlon Byrd	2014	104
83	77	Bob Kennedy	1957	68
84	77	Adam LaRoche	2016	0	DNP
85	77	Steve Finley	2001	97
86	77	Charlie Maxwell	1963	101
87	77	Ty Wigginton	2014	0	DNP
88	77	Bud Stewart	1952	106
89	77	Kevin Millar	2008	105
90	77	Hersh Martin	1946	0	DNP
91	77	Bret Boone	2005	80
92	77	Ben Oglivie	1985	110
93	77	Norm Cash	1971	146
94	77	Harry Hooper	1924	121
95	77	Dick Bartell	1944	0	DNP
96	77	Frenchy Bordagaray	1946	0	DNP
97	77	Randy Velarde	1999	118
98	77	Joel Youngblood	1988	78
99	77	Brian Jordan	2003	105
100	77	Dusty Baker	1985	120

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		In an era of two Wild Cards per league and a solid month of playoff baseball, October heroes get to be like day lilies: momentarily thrilling, but short-lived, quickly forgotten and just as quickly replaced. Freese is an exception. He bloomed late, but that miraculous pair of long hits in Game 6 of the 2011 fall classic turned out not to be miracles, after all. They were, rather, the product of a unique skill set that has aged gracefully. Freese uses center and right field as well as any right-handed hitter. Of 186 qualifying batters, Freese posted the sixth-deepest average contact point last season, letting the ball travel well into the hitting zone before jolting it the other way. That approach has not allowed Freese to retain the power he had in his early years, but the swing that put rings on the Cardinals' fingers seven years ago is still putting money in Freese's pockets. What's more, a few years of good health have allowed his defense at third base to improve, even as he nears his mid-thirties.
2017		It was strange that it took Freese until March 11 to sign last year. It was even stranger that he netted just $3 million after a very solid 2015 with the Angels; the last time a Mr. Freese got this raw a deal, Uma Thurman told Arnold Schwarzenegger that George Clooney killed his wife. Freese walked and struck out more than usual last season, but all in all he was the same slightly-above-average hitter and slightly-above-average defender we’ve come to know. The former World Series hero was especially potent against lefties, hitting .337/.419/.543 in 105 PA. The Pirates rewarded Freese by locking him up through at least 2018 for $10.5 million.
2016		After two straight seasons of slugging like a middle infielder, Freese was able to rebound in 2015 with his best power output since his twenties, setting him up nicely to inhale the pungent air of free agency for the first time. At a minimum, he has contributed league-average offense at the plate even in his down years, and though the late-blossoming infielder appears to have passed his short peak, even the decline phase should include a couple more productive seasons.
2015		On one count, Freese delivered: In Game One of the ALDS, he hit what seemed at the time to be a crucial home run, and wound up posting the second-best OPS of the club's brief postseason run. That provided the Angels with a little “Big Game” pyrrhic victory in a season where Freese generally disappointed. He produced the 24th-best WARP of all MLB third basemen, and merely matched Peter Bourjos (who received just 60 percent of Freese's playing time) in that category. Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk—the other guy the Angels gave up to get Freese—took the reins in the Cardinals' right field, made their postseason roster and slammed a Clayton Kershaw curveball into the seats. Entering the 2015 offseason, the Halos are reportedly looking to go either better or cheaper at third base, so yeah, Angels fans have every reason to hold a grudge.
2014		Freese�s modest production caused some to suggest he was living off his 2011 postseason glory and a change was necessary. That overlooks the fact that he was quite good in 2012. No, the problem in 2013 was the same one that caused his late bloom in the first place: shoddy health. A lower back issue grounded him to start the season and seemed to linger, sapping his power. Freese remains one of baseball�s most fly ball-averse batsmen, and some regression from his 20 percent homer-per-fly ratio in 2012 was all but guaranteed. Still, a meager .119 isolated power is an overcorrection. The Angels acquired him to fill the hole left by the Alberto Callaspo trade, and if he regains his health he'll fit nicely for two years before hitting free agency at 33. Retaining him beyond that point would probably suck.
2013		So that�s what happens when Freese stays (mostly) healthy for a full season. The 2011 World Series MVP avoided the DL despite a variety of nagging ailments and spent last year punishing National League pitching. More a hitter than a slugger, Freese maintains a high batting average by stinging copious hard grounders and line drives around the park, and when he does loft one it tends to leave the yard�his rate of 20 percent home runs per fly ball last year was among the circuit�s highest. That�s not likely to continue, but if he can continue to draw walks and play a capable third base, he�ll provide great production. As pleasant as all that is, Freese is 30 and seems to have ankle ligaments made of spun sugar, so as he grows more expensive the Cardinals should already be planning their exit strategy.
2012		Never again will Freese be known simply as the Cardinals� return in the trade of Jim Edmonds. A World Series MVP will have that effect. But the road to becoming a hometown hero was not smooth. A career-long battle with injuries has limited his speed and his range in the field. The bad luck continued this spring when he was struck by a Scott Linebrink fastball, causing him to miss most of May and June with a broken hamate bone in his left hand. Freese managed to put together a productive second half, despite a bad hamstring and a beaning from Clay Hensley. Then, in October, he caught fire, grinding out one at-bat after another en route to a Pujols-like postseason slash line of .397/.465/.794. PECOTA is not optimistic Freese can continue his October surge, and he�ll be nearly 30 years old when he becomes eligible for arbitration after the 2012 season. But his postseason hardware gives him a little more leverage than the typical arbitration rookie.
2011		Freese inherited the third-base job last year but couldn�t run with it, as a series of lower leg injuries culminating in surgery on both ankles kept him from running much of anywhere. He�s back to try again this spring, possibly healthy but definitely a year older�not a good thing for a 28-year-old prospect. Freese has hit everywhere he�s been and gets on base, though the prodigious power he showed in the minors has so far melted under the bright lights, and injuries have reduced his range to below-average. The best-case scenario for Freese is that he�ll be an inexpensive complement to the millionaires in the middle of the order, but he�s not destined for their tax bracket.
2010		Remember those answers to multiple-choice questions that seemed really close to the right answer, but weren't exactly right? Welcome to Freese's world, as his shot at being last season's third baseman got skipped. Bumped from the roster early as La Russa went with Thurston and Barden, a May ankle injury that shelved him for six weeks perhaps inspired the decisions to first try Khalil Greene before trading for DeRosa. Once Freese returned to action for August, he slugged .620 for Memphis in 140 PAs; that got him one September start in the majors. As possible answers go, he's been recycled; he'll contend with Allen Craig in camp, but he's not young and his defense isn't such that it makes selecting him easy.
2009		The Cards acquired Freese for franchise legend Jim Edmonds before last season. One might think being traded straight up for a potential Hall of Famer when you've yet to play above A-ball would put a lot of pressure on the kid, but Freese wasn't bothered at all, even after the Cardinals put him on a night train to Memphis that blew right past Double-A Springfield. You'd like to see a little more selectivity, but the real question is whether he can stay at third. The Cardinals think so, and he'll be back in Triple-A, insuring against a Glaus injury.
2008		David Freese was traded to the Cardinals for Jim Edmonds in December. His power and plate discipline make him a strong third-base prospect
2007		The team`s eighth-rounder in 2006, University of Alabama star David Freese signed quickly and continued to terrorize pitchers wherever he played. Although he`s already 24, if he hits his way to Double-A, he might make it.

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