Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 67)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	77	Josh Wilson	2014	66
2	75	Ed Lucas	2015	0	DNP
3	74	Kevin Cash	2011	0	DNP
4	74	Josh Paul	2008	0	DNP
5	74	Koyie Hill	2012	79
6	73	Corey Patterson	2013	0	DNP
7	73	Adam Rosales	2016	90
8	73	Tuffy Gosewisch	2017	47
9	72	Shawn Wooten	2006	0	DNP
10	71	Pete Orr	2012	57
11	71	Mike Rivera	2010	76
12	71	Omar Quintanilla	2015	0	DNP
13	71	Michael Martinez	2016	75
14	71	Nick Green	2012	77
15	70	Jeff Francoeur	2017	0	DNP
16	70	Clint Robinson	2018	0	DNP
17	70	Raul Chavez	2006	75
18	70	Bobby Wilson	2016	71
19	70	Travis Ishikawa	2017	0	DNP
20	70	Matt Kata	2011	0	DNP
21	69	Brendan Harris	2014	0	DNP
22	69	Drew Butera	2017	84
23	69	Chris Heintz	2008	0	DNP
24	69	Dewayne Wise	2011	64
25	69	Mike Mahoney	2006	0	DNP
26	68	Royce Huffman	2010	0	DNP
27	68	Wil Nieves	2011	57
28	68	Jim Adduci	2018	75
29	68	Chris Coste	2006	103
30	68	Fernando Tatis	2008	106
31	68	Rene Rivera	2017	87
32	68	Jorge Velandia	2008	64
33	67	Humberto Quintero	2013	82
34	67	Chase Lambin	2013	0	DNP
35	67	Roger Bernadina	2017	0	DNP
36	67	Aaron Holbert	2006	0	DNP
37	67	Harry Spilman	1988	74
38	67	Adrian Brown	2007	0	DNP
39	66	Mike Jacobs	2014	0	DNP
40	66	Keith Ginter	2009	0	DNP
41	66	Ramon Vazquez	2010	0	DNP
42	66	Chris Gimenez	2016	73
43	66	Eric Young	2018	59
44	66	Jim Poole	1928	0	DNP
45	66	Walter Holke	1926	0	DNP
46	66	Cole Gillespie	2017	0	DNP
47	66	Don Kelly	2013	95
48	66	Chris James	1996	0	DNP
49	66	Emilio Bonifacio	2018	0	DNP
50	66	Hernan Iribarren	2017	0	DNP
51	66	Earl McNeely	1931	70
52	66	Gil Velazquez	2013	82
53	66	Jeff Mathis	2016	72
54	66	Don Kolloway	1952	83
55	66	Damon Hollins	2007	0	DNP
56	66	Robb Quinlan	2010	69
57	65	Jon Weber	2011	0	DNP
58	65	Roy Elsh	1924	97
59	65	Bert Haas	1947	98
60	65	Paul Janish	2016	91
61	65	Joe Inglett	2011	73
62	65	Mickey Vernon	1951	99
63	65	Kerry Robinson	2007	0	DNP
64	65	Vance Wilson	2006	73
65	65	Jack Hannahan	2013	70
66	65	Frank O'Rourke	1927	92
67	65	Gary Varsho	1994	61
68	65	Wil Cordero	2005	68
69	65	Joe McEwing	2006	72
70	65	Darnell Coles	1995	93
71	65	John Mabry	2004	114
72	64	Jim Rushford	2007	0	DNP
73	64	William Marriott	1927	78
74	64	Bill Hart	1946	0	DNP
75	64	Brian R. Hunter	2001	0	DNP
76	64	Ron Coomer	2000	87
77	64	Pete Coscarart	1946	84
78	64	Hank Camelli	1948	0	DNP
79	64	Jose Molina	2008	62
80	64	Timo Perez	2008	0	DNP
81	64	Ethan Allen	1937	102
82	64	Jacob Cruz	2006	0	DNP
83	64	Mike Pagliarulo	1993	109
84	64	John Baker	2014	55
85	64	Damian Jackson	2007	0	DNP
86	64	Glenn Myatt	1931	78
87	64	Cedric Durst	1930	68
88	64	Clyde McCullough	1950	82
89	64	Gino Cimoli	1963	85
90	63	Ryan Spilborghs	2013	0	DNP
91	63	Daryle Ward	2008	93
92	63	Nolan Reimold	2017	0	DNP
93	63	Tito Landrum	1988	74
94	63	Mike McCormick	1950	79
95	63	Travis Jackson	1937	0	DNP
96	63	Don Gutteridge	1945	72
97	63	Carmen Castillo	1991	70
98	63	Mike Mordecai	2001	80
99	63	Ray Murray	1951	78
100	63	Bill Rigney	1951	102

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2015		Injuries are a part of the game, and thus so is Tyler Colvin, who can park one on occasion while filling in at left, right or first.
2014		Can you say Quad-A? Tyler Colvin looked like a major-leaguer in the Pacific Coast League, which is not a major league.
2013		The good news is that Colvin, acquired from the Cubs in December 2011 for fellow disappointment Ian Stewart, hit more line drives and returned to his rookie level of offensive production. The bad news is that his plate discipline has gone from bad to worse. Once pitchers figure out that they don't have to throw Colvin strikes, he'll scuffle again. In fact, it may have started to happen. Last season, his ISO dropped from .321 in the first half to .176 in the second. Small samples or not, those are troubling trends. Primarily a right fielder, Colvin also saw action in center field and at first base last year.
2012		Colvin's isolated power in 2010 was higher than all but 11 of the qualifying batters in the major leagues. He lost a lot of that tremendous power in 2011, but the problem was deeper—he lost some of the gains he'd made in plate discipline, and he wasn't centering up the ball at all, leading to a lot of weakly hit balls and thus easy outs. Colvin didn't even regroup as hoped in Triple-A. Still, a fly-ball hitter who plays half his games at Coors Field always has a chance. He'll be in the mix for at-bats at all three outfield spots as well as first base.
2011		Is Colvin baseball's answer to the fish taco? In his way, he's an interesting collection of unlikely elements that make for a surprising treat in concert. He's too athletic to be a mere slug, providing good speed on the bases and a fly-ball stroke that limits GIDPs, the arm for right if not the range for center, and less patience than you'd like but more than he used to have. Whether he's an interesting oddity or a burgeoning star will depend on his ability to keep delivering homers at a steep clip; his home run/fly ball rate was up in the same stratosphere as guys named Pujols, Konerko, and Papi. If he can do that and play a great right field, he'll deserve an everyday gig, even while exacerbating the team's OBP problem. The near tragedy of his being speared by the barrel of Welington Castillo's shattered maple bat shouldn't be an issue for him in camp.
2010		Colvin’s second pass through the Southern League was a mixed bag. Half-full thinkers will see the increased slugging percentage and note that the former first-round pick finally developed the home run power his size and swing have long suggested, while the half-empty set will retort that Colvin’s move from center to right may have upped the offensive ante beyond what he can be expected to produce. Colvin’s walk rate and power production remain inversely proportional, and the product of that unique formula is more likely to be a bench player than a starting corner outfielder.
2009		A toolsy maybe, Colvin made big strides in the second half when he learned to start ripping the pitches he could hit instead of waiting for a walk to just happen. Pitch identification is an issue, but at some point it's going to boil down to what he can do opposed to trying to make him do what he can't. Poor instincts might keep him out of center, and while he has the arm for right, he'll need to hit a lot better than his slugging over .500 after the Southern League's all-star break, as promising as that was in his age-23 season. In short, he's still shy of a finished product, and will need to build on a good second half to deliver as something more than just an extra outfielder.
2008		At this stage of his development, Colvin has a couple of significant holes in his swing; any time your strikeout-to-walk ratio looks like Tom Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio, that's bad news. While the power and speed tools are there, they're not off the charts. Colvin's upside is a .280/.320/.500-type of hitter; that's valuable in center field, but less so in an outfield corner, so his defensive progress is the key. Although our translations suggest Colvin took quite well to center last year, the scouting reports were mixed.
2007		The Cubs` first-round pick in 2006 had a lackluster pro debut, but the predictive power of a player`s first exposure to wooden bats is exceptionally low. He`s more toolsy and less polished than your typical collegiate first-rounder; then again, most scouts thought he was more of a third-round pick than a first. He`s seen as above average in the traditional five tools, but his plate discipline last year was dismal.

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