Justin Masterson Stats | Baseball Prospectus

Biographical

Justin Masterson P
Scouting Report
Scouted by Mark Anderson (Oct 27, 2014)
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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 34)

IP	ERA	WHIP	SO	W	L	SV	WARP
34.7	4.82	1.46	29	2	2	0	-0.1

Birth Date	3-22-1985
Height	6' 6"
Weight	260 lbs

Age	39 years, 1 months, 2 days
Bats	R
Throws	R

: -1.82015
: 2016
: 2017
: 2018
: -0.12019
proj

WARP Summary

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MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	Lg	G	GS	IP	W	L	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-	WARP
2008	BOS	MLB	36	9	88.3	6	5	68	40	68	10	108	6.9	4.1	1.0	6.9	0%	.243	1.22	4.72	3.16	111	5.39	115.0	0.1
2009	BOS	0	31	6	72.0	3	3	72	25	67	7	109	9.0	3.1	0.9	8.4	0%	.314	1.35	3.83	4.50	89	4.04	86.6	1.1
2009	CLE	0	11	10	57.3	1	7	56	35	52	5	101	8.8	5.5	0.8	8.2	0%	.315	1.59	4.39	4.55	99	5.24	112.4	0.1
2010	CLE	MLB	34	29	180.0	6	13	197	73	140	14	107	9.9	3.7	0.7	7.0	0%	.324	1.50	3.90	4.70	103	5.25	118.4	0.0
2011	CLE	MLB	34	33	216.0	12	10	211	65	158	11	100	8.8	2.7	0.5	6.6	0%	.302	1.28	3.31	3.21	99	4.44	103.1	1.6
2012	CLE	MLB	34	34	206.3	11	15	212	88	159	18	99	9.2	3.8	0.8	6.9	0%	.309	1.45	4.10	4.93	116	5.70	130.8	-1.3
2013	CLE	MLB	32	29	193.0	14	10	156	76	195	13	100	7.3	3.5	0.6	9.1	0%	.285	1.20	3.37	3.45	106	4.37	104.6	1.3
2014	CLE	0	19	19	98.0	4	6	106	56	93	6	101	9.7	5.1	0.6	8.5	0%	.350	1.65	4.11	5.51	122	6.18	151.6	-1.6
2014	SLN	0	9	6	30.7	3	3	35	13	23	6	102	10.3	3.8	1.8	6.8	0%	.309	1.57	5.81	7.04	128	5.95	145.9	-0.4
2015	BOS	MLB	18	9	59.3	4	2	68	27	49	7	116	10.3	4.1	1.1	7.4	0%	.339	1.60	4.85	5.61	132	7.46	174.4	-1.8
2009	TOT	MLB	42	16	129.3	4	10	128	60	119	12	105	8.9	4.2	0.8	8.3	0%	.000	1.45	4.07	4.52	94	4.57	98.1	1.3
2014	TOT	MLB	28	25	128.7	7	9	141	69	116	12	102	9.9	4.8	0.8	8.1	0%	.000	1.63	4.51	5.88	123	6.13	150.2	-2.1
Career		MLB	258	184	1201.0	64	74	1181	498	1004	97	103	8.9	3.7	0.7	7.5	58%	.306	1.40	3.93	4.31	108	5.18	119.3	-0.8

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	Lg	LG	G	GS	IP	W	L	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-
2008	BOS	MLB	AL	36	9	88.3	6	5	68	40	68	10	108	6.9	4.1	1.0	6.9	0%	.243	1.22	4.72	3.16	111	5.39	115.0
2009	BOS	MLB	AL	31	6	72.0	3	3	72	25	67	7	109	9.0	3.1	0.9	8.4	0%	.314	1.35	3.83	4.50	89	4.04	86.6
2009	CLE	MLB	AL	11	10	57.3	1	7	56	35	52	5	101	8.8	5.5	0.8	8.2	0%	.315	1.59	4.39	4.55	99	5.24	112.4
2010	CLE	MLB	AL	34	29	180.0	6	13	197	73	140	14	107	9.9	3.7	0.7	7.0	0%	.324	1.50	3.90	4.70	103	5.25	118.4
2011	CLE	MLB	AL	34	33	216.0	12	10	211	65	158	11	100	8.8	2.7	0.5	6.6	0%	.302	1.28	3.31	3.21	99	4.44	103.1
2012	CLE	MLB	AL	34	34	206.3	11	15	212	88	159	18	99	9.2	3.8	0.8	6.9	0%	.309	1.45	4.10	4.93	116	5.70	130.8
2013	CLE	MLB	AL	32	29	193.0	14	10	156	76	195	13	100	7.3	3.5	0.6	9.1	0%	.285	1.20	3.37	3.45	106	4.37	104.6
2014	CLE	MLB	AL	19	19	98.0	4	6	106	56	93	6	101	9.7	5.1	0.6	8.5	0%	.350	1.65	4.11	5.51	122	6.18	151.6
2014	SLN	MLB	NL	9	6	30.7	3	3	35	13	23	6	102	10.3	3.8	1.8	6.8	0%	.309	1.57	5.81	7.04	128	5.95	145.9
2014	COH	AAA	INT	2	2	11.7	0	1	9	8	10	0	114	6.9	6.2	0.0	7.7	0%	.281	1.46	3.69	5.40	99	4.27	90.4
2015	BOS	MLB	AL	18	9	59.3	4	2	68	27	49	7	116	10.3	4.1	1.1	7.4	0%	.339	1.60	4.85	5.61	132	7.46	174.4
2015	PME	AA	EAS	1	1	4.7	0	0	8	1	2	0	99	15.4	1.9	0.0	3.9	0%	.421	1.93	3.70	3.86	103	7.27	159.6
2015	PAW	AAA	INT	3	3	13.7	0	2	8	7	12	0	95	5.3	4.6	0.0	7.9	0%	.235	1.10	3.15	3.29	102	3.46	75.9
2016	BRD	A+	FSL	1	1	5.0	1	0	2	3	8	1	102	3.6	5.4	1.8	14.4	56%	.125	1.00	4.45	3.60	85	2.43	53.7
2016	IND	AAA	INT	25	5	54.3	2	2	62	26	32	3	104	10.3	4.3	0.5	5.3	53%	.339	1.62	4.69	4.97	122	6.67	147.2
2017	OKL	AAA	PCL	26	25	141.7	11	6	129	66	140	7	104	8.2	4.2	0.4	8.9	52%	.309	1.38	4.27	4.13	94	3.84	81.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR	Pits	Zone%	Swing%	Contact%	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%	Z-Contact%	O-Contact%	SwStr%
2008	1366	0.4788	0.4356	0.7546	0.5841	0.2992	0.8377	0.6056	0.2454
2009	2161	0.5373	0.4359	0.7718	0.5719	0.2780	0.8449	0.5971	0.2282
2010	3044	0.5161	0.4478	0.7909	0.5971	0.2885	0.8689	0.6188	0.2091
2011	3432	0.5495	0.4627	0.8161	0.6029	0.2917	0.8742	0.6696	0.1839
2012	3413	0.5095	0.4477	0.7984	0.5963	0.2933	0.8746	0.6375	0.2016
2013	3007	0.5012	0.4250	0.7645	0.5607	0.2887	0.8651	0.5681	0.2355
2014	2233	0.4716	0.4165	0.7645	0.5717	0.2780	0.8754	0.5610	0.2355
2015	1010	0.4743	0.4228	0.8080	0.5950	0.2674	0.9053	0.6127	0.1920
Career	19666	0.5110	0.4399	0.7858	0.5857	0.2872	0.8680	0.6130	0.2142

Injury History — No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On	Date Off	Transaction	Days	Games	Side	Body Part	Injury	Severity	Surgery Date	Reaggravation
2014-07-08	2014-08-02	15-DL	25	21	Right	Knee	Inflammation		-
2014-06-25	2014-07-01	DTD	6	5	Right	Knee	Soreness		-
2013-09-03	2013-09-25	DTD	22	20	Left	Abdomen	Strain	Oblique	-	-
2011-10-12	2011-10-12	Off	0	0	Left	Shoulder	Surgery	Labrum - Posterior	2011-10-12	-

Compensation

Year	Team	Salary
2017	LAN	$
2016	PIT	$
2015	BOS	$9,500,000
2014	CLE	$9,762,500
2013	CLE	$5,687,500
2012	CLE	$3,825,000
2011	CLE	$468,400
2010	CLE	$427,000
2009	BOS	$415,500

Years	Description	Salary
7 yr	Previous	$30,085,900
7 yr	Total	$30,085,900

Service Time	Agent	Contract Status
6 y 108 d	Randy Rowley	1 year (2017)

Details

1 year (2017). Signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 3/27/17 (minor-league contract). Retired 12/18.
1 year (2016). Signed by Pittsburgh as a free agent 4/14/16 (minor-league contract).
1 year/$9.5M (2015). Signed by Boston as a free agent 12/11/14. Performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 185, 190, 195, 200, 205 innings pitched. DFA by Boston 8/10/15.
1 year/$9.7625M (2014). Re-signed by Cleveland 2/18/14 (avoided arbitration, $11.8M-$8.05M). Acquired by St. Louis in trade from Cleveland 7/30/14.
1 year/$5.6875M (2013). Re-signed by Cleveland 1/18/13 (avoided arbitration). Award bonuses, including $50,000 for All-Star selection.
1 year/$3.825M (2012). Re-signed by Cleveland 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration).
1 year/$0.4684M (2011). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/8/11.
1 year/$0.427M (2010). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/10/10.
1 year/$0.4155M (2009). Re-signed by Boston 3/10/09. Acquired by Cleveland in trade from Boston 7/31/09 (Victor Martinez deal).
1 year (2008). Contract purchased by Boston 4/24/08. Optioned to Double-A 4/25/08. Recalled 5/20/08. Optioned to Triple-A 5/21/08. Recalled 6/3/08. Optioned to Triple-A 7/7/08. Recalled 7/20/08.
Drafted by Boston 2006 (2-71) (San Diego State). $0.51M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT	W	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	BABIP	WHIP	ERA	DRA	VORP	WARP
90^o	7.2	0.2	13	8	48.5	42	19	38	5	.260	1.26	3.89	4.12	-4.9	-0.5
80^o	6.2	0.2	11	7	43.0	40	18	34	5	.274	1.35	4.28	4.54	-6.2	-0.7
70^o	5.5	0.2	10	6	39.2	38	18	31	5	.284	1.41	4.57	4.85	-6.9	-0.7
60^o	4.9	0.2	10	6	36.0	36	17	28	5	.292	1.47	4.81	5.11	-7.3	-0.8
50^o	4.4	0.1	9	5	33.0	35	16	26	4	.300	1.53	5.05	5.36	-7.5	-0.8
40^o	3.9	0.1	8	5	30.2	33	15	24	4	.308	1.59	5.29	5.62	-7.7	-0.8
30^o	3.4	0.1	7	4	27.2	31	14	21	4	.317	1.66	5.54	5.9	-7.7	-0.8
20^o	2.9	0.1	6	4	23.8	28	13	19	4	.327	1.73	5.85	6.23	-7.6	-0.8
10^o	2.2	0.1	5	3	19.3	24	11	15	3	.341	1.85	6.29	6.71	-7.1	-0.8
Weighted Mean	4.3	0.1	9	5	32.4	34	16	25	4	.298	1.52	5.02	5.33	-7.3	-0.8

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.

Year	Age	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	ERA	DRA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WARP
2020	35	7	8	1	38	21	156	154	68	124	20	49	.312	1.43	4.92	5.52	8.9	3.9	7.2	1.2	-0.4
2021	36	6	7	1	31	18	127	127	56	104	16	49	.316	1.44	4.87	5.46	9.0	4.0	7.4	1.1	-0.3
2022	37	5	6	0	27	15	110	109	48	91	14	49	.316	1.43	4.87	5.46	8.9	3.9	7.5	1.1	-0.3
2023	38	5	6	0	28	16	113	113	51	92	15	49	.314	1.45	4.95	5.55	9.0	4.0	7.3	1.2	-0.4
2024	39	5	6	0	27	15	111	110	49	90	14	49	.314	1.44	4.95	5.55	8.9	4.0	7.3	1.1	-0.4
2025	40	5	6	0	27	15	112	112	50	90	15	49	.313	1.45	4.99	5.60	9.0	4.0	7.2	1.2	-0.4
2026	41	4	6	0	25	14	101	101	46	81	14	49	.314	1.45	5.05	5.66	9.0	4.1	7.2	1.2	-0.4
2027	42	4	5	0	24	13	97	98	44	78	13	49	.314	1.46	5.07	5.69	9.1	4.1	7.2	1.2	-0.4
2028	43	4	5	0	21	12	85	86	38	67	12	49	.315	1.46	5.10	5.72	9.1	4.0	7.1	1.3	-0.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 72)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	87	R.A. Dickey	2009	4.76
2	85	Jared Fernandez	2006	11.37
3	83	Brandon Duckworth	2010	0.00	DNP
4	82	Chris Jakubauskas	2013	0.00	DNP
5	80	Daisuke Matsuzaka	2015	0.00	DNP
6	79	Claudio Vargas	2012	0.00	DNP
7	79	Scott Richmond	2014	0.00	DNP
8	78	Chris Narveson	2016	8.64
9	78	Brad Thomas	2012	0.00	DNP
10	77	John Wasdin	2007	5.95
11	76	Travis Smith	2007	0.00	DNP
12	76	Ross Ohlendorf	2017	0.00	DNP
13	76	D.J. Carrasco	2011	6.39
14	76	Brian Lawrence	2010	0.00	DNP
15	76	Josh Roenicke	2017	0.00	DNP
16	76	Randy Keisler	2010	0.00	DNP
17	75	Walter Silva	2011	0.00	DNP
18	75	Eric Stults	2014	4.70
19	75	Tim Redding	2012	0.00	DNP
20	75	Brian Burres	2015	0.00	DNP
21	74	Tomo Ohka	2010	0.00	DNP
22	74	Dustin McGowan	2016	3.49
23	74	Micah Bowie	2009	0.00	DNP
24	74	Aaron Small	2006	9.43
25	73	Stephen Randolph	2008	0.00	DNP
26	73	Vladimir Nunez	2009	36.00
27	73	Barry Zito	2012	4.44
28	73	Tim Corcoran	2012	0.00	DNP
29	73	Jorge De La Rosa	2015	4.41
30	73	Chan Ho Park	2007	15.75
31	72	Josh Towers	2011	0.00	DNP
32	72	Josh Fogg	2011	0.00	DNP
33	72	Travis Driskill	2006	0.00	DNP
34	72	Jamey Wright	2009	5.92
35	72	Mark Redman	2008	7.94
36	72	Shawn Estes	2007	0.00	DNP
37	71	Chien-Ming Wang	2014	0.00	DNP
38	71	Jeff Harris	2009	0.00	DNP
39	71	Vicente Padilla	2012	4.68
40	71	Eric Junge	2011	0.00	DNP
41	71	Alfredo Simon	2015	5.40
42	71	Tsuyoshi Wada	2015	3.90
43	71	Russ Ortiz	2008	0.00	DNP
44	71	Yoslan Herrera	2015	0.00	DNP
45	70	Marty McLeary	2009	0.00	DNP
46	70	Jason Marquis	2013	4.67
47	70	Rick Sutcliffe	1990	5.91
48	70	Jim Bibby	1979	3.33
49	70	Roberto Hernandez	2015	5.10
50	70	Chris Young	2013	0.00	DNP
51	70	Ryan Vogelsong	2012	3.61
52	70	Lefty Gomez	1943	0.00	DNP
53	70	Brandon Mann	2018	5.40
54	70	Jake Westbrook	2012	4.38
55	69	Brian Moehler	2006	7.08
56	69	Todd Ritchie	2006	0.00	DNP
57	69	Darryl Kile	2003	0.00	DNP
58	69	Jerome Williams	2016	8.31
59	69	Cesar Ramos	2018	0.00	DNP
60	69	Valerio De Los Santos	2007	0.00	DNP
61	69	Kris Benson	2009	9.27
62	69	C.J. Nitkowski	2007	0.00	DNP
63	69	Denny Stark	2009	7.36
64	69	Eddie Bonine	2015	0.00	DNP
65	69	Kevin Appier	2002	4.25
66	69	Brad Penny	2012	7.07
67	69	Chris Leroux	2018	0.00	DNP
68	68	Dave Burba	2001	6.69
69	68	Tony Fiore	2006	0.00	DNP
70	68	Matt Palmer	2013	0.00	DNP
71	68	Bob Shaw	1967	5.21
72	68	Mike Pelfrey	2018	0.00	DNP
73	68	Clay Hensley	2014	0.00	DNP
74	68	Matt Young	1993	5.45
75	68	Bill Hallahan	1937	7.47
76	68	Alan Benes	2006	0.00	DNP
77	68	Tim Stauffer	2016	0.00	DNP
78	68	Jeff Suppan	2009	5.90
79	68	Bob Veale	1970	4.41
80	68	Bob Ojeda	1992	4.33
81	68	Bob Weiland	1940	40.50
82	68	Brian Mazone	2011	0.00	DNP
83	68	Jarrod Washburn	2009	3.94
84	68	Jake Miller	1932	0.00	DNP
85	68	Ubaldo Jimenez	2018	0.00	DNP
86	67	Justin Lehr	2012	0.00	DNP
87	67	Fritz Ostermueller	1942	3.23
88	67	Jon Leicester	2013	0.00	DNP
89	67	Jeremy Powell	2010	0.00	DNP
90	67	Frank Castillo	2003	0.00	DNP
91	67	Danny MacFayden	1939	4.42
92	67	Joe Horlen	1972	3.64
93	67	Terry Adams	2007	0.00	DNP
94	67	Art Fowler	1957	6.67
95	67	Paul Wilson	2007	0.00	DNP
96	67	Walt Masterson	1954	0.00	DNP
97	67	Dave Bush	2014	0.00	DNP
98	67	Rick Rhoden	1987	4.16
99	67	Edinson Volquez	2018	0.00	DNP
100	67	Geoff Zahn	1980	5.34

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		The only Jamaican-born hurler in big-league history, Justin Masterson didn't exactly pop style all season in Oklahoma City, but he did manage to stay reasonably healthy and effective as a starter all year.
2017		Long known for his sinker with late, downward movement, Justin Mastersonâ€™s career is unfortunately following a similar trajectory. The righty threw just 59 innings in the minorsâ€”mostly as a relieverâ€”following offseason arthroscopic shoulder surgery.
2016		Game of Thrones fans will be familiar with Beric â€œThe Lightning Lordâ€ Dondarrion, a good and just knight who's used to introduce resurrection into the series. Unfortunately, Beric's tale turns sour when we learn that each time he's brought back, he loses more and more of his old self. So it goes with Masterson, whose own comeback tale with the Red Sox met a gory end in August after he struggled all season long. Masterson's drastically reduced velocity has rendered his once-potent fastball/slider combo lifeless, and his ability to log 200-plus innings is a fading relic as well. The former Red Sox farmhand has always had trouble with lefties, but in 2015 southpaws hit like Babe Ruth against him, batting .307/.409/.508 with 17 XBH. Masterson will be just 31 this season and perhaps deserves one more shot as a ROOGY or a long man, but as Arya Stark will remind you, all pitching careers must die.
2015		When a struggling Masterson was traded to St. Louis last summer, the Cardinals clearly believed that pitching in front of one of the league's best infield defenses would shake the long-time sinkerball impresario out of the doldrums. Six starts and an ERA best suited for a Boeing jet later, it was clear the problem was with Masterson, not the fielders behind him. He has often struggled to retire lefties, but last year a puzzling drop in velocity combined with shaky command allowed hitters of all stripes to tee off, and his walk and strikeout rates moved in the wrong direction. He still produces more groundball outs than anyone, but if Masterson can't regain some zip on his fastball he may need to move to the 'pen, where he'll be better positioned to torture righties with impunity.
2014		Not that anyone is considering moving the Indians' workhorse to the bullpen full-time anymore, but his time in relief to close out the season confirmed the expected—that he'd post amazing statistics if he only faced the Twins and White Sox. Seriously, it did show that he'd be a very effective reliever, with a more reliable platoon advantage. No pitcher who has faced 500 right-handed batters over the past three seasons has allowed a lower OPS (.537). Masterson's filthy mix of two fastballs and a slider remain less than nasty to left-handed hitters, especially those with the discipline to take. When one of those insolent lefties inevitably reaches, Masterson is severe toward potential basestealers, keeping most double play opportunities alive for the right-hander on deck.
2013		After an apparent breakout season in 2011, Masterson took a step back last year. Despite the disparity of nearly a full run between his ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), we can’t simply point to bad luck given the kind of pitcher he is: a sinker/slider side-armer with an extreme platoon split. Masterson has struggled at times with runners on base, and that was a big part of the problem last year. In fact, the only years it hasn’t been a problem are those when he faced less than his fair share of lefties with runners on, and last year teams stacked lineups with more lefties than ever before (59 percent). The sequencing of hits is usually random, for the most part, but for a pitcher who struggles against a particular type of hitter, trouble is bound to occur when those hitters are clustered together.
2012		After a 2010 season that saw Masterson post much better peripherals than his ERA indicated, he proved in 2011 that his 2010 was merely bad luck. That put to rest the notion that his unorthodox pitching style made him a DIPS theory outlier (a pitcher who over- or under-performs his peripherals due to a skill, or lack thereof, that the peripherals don't capture). A rare sidearm starter, Masterson's ability to slice through righties like a machete more than compensates for the butter knife he employs versus lefties. Masterson is a ground-ball machine thanks to his arm angle and plus-plus sinker—one of the game's best—but he also gets strikeouts thanks to a quality slider that he can play off a good second fastball. Maintaining the improved control he showed in the second half of 2010 (3.0 BB/9), Masterson's 2011 proved he can be a very good number three starter.
2011		One of the keys to the deal that sent Victor Martinez to Boston, the Indians hoped that Masterson would be a quality major-league starter by now, but he lacks that first adjective. Yes, he gets plenty of ground balls, but ground balls alone don't make a pitcher good by default—especially when you play with a team as soft on defense up the middle as Cleveland was last year—just like walks don't automatically make a hitter good. Speaking of walks, Masterson made some progress in that department during the second half of the year, so there's still some hope for his future.
2010		In Boston, a starter with a 4.50 ERA means you’re heading to the bullpen, while in Cleveland it means you're in contention to start Opening Day. Masterson’s left/right splits were once again extreme; in 2009 righties struggled (.203/.289/.302) and lefties excelled (.323/.407/.470). His Achilles' heel is his walk rate, but he was especially hurt in 2009 by BABIP as the good luck of 2008 deserted him. If he maintains his walk and strikeout rates, then a relatively normal BABIP would put him around a 3.90 ERA without any additional improvements, and that's good enough to make him the answer to the prayers of Tribe fans.
2009		Masterson was serviceable as a starter, though 28 walks over 54 innings is a bit much, even for a side-arming ground-ball specialist. Relief was where he shone, with 7.6 whiffs and 3.1 walks per nine over his 27 appearances. Still, perhaps the greatest share of his success was due to delivery that rings up righties, limiting them to just .196/.274/.298. He was also successful against left-handed hitters, but although southpaw swingers hit only .238, too many of their hits went for extra bases. This raises an interesting question for Masterson's future: he was more effective as a reliever, but he has the endurance to start, and as a starter the impact of the occasional home run allowed to a left-hander would be diminished. Masterson's current lack of a reliable third pitch may ultimately resolve this question in favor of the bullpen.
2008		Can we get him nicknamed "Monsterson"? At 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, he's more than qualified for the moniker. Masterson's sinker is as scary as any movie creation and arguably the best in the minors. Finding a second pitch and refining his mechanics are on the to-do list for 2008.
2007		The 71st pick in the 2006 draft, this behemoth came to the team`s attention a closer in the Cape Cod League in 2005. Having already thrown 116 innings prior to the draft, he worked out of the bullpen in Lowell. Adding a few MPH to a low-90s two-seam fastball that he continued to located very well, he made mincemeat out of opposing hitters, holding them to a .174/.208/.200 showing. The Sox will move him back into the rotation in 2007; the development of his secondary pitches will determine if he stays there.

BP Articles

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BP Chats

Date	Question	Answer
2015-11-05 12:00:00 (link to chat)	How well (badly) is Mat Latos going to pitch next year? Seems like he's heading down the Justin Masterson path of already worse than average and declining further ... (Luke from MI)	I'll admit that I didn't see this coming. If you go by DRA last season is a big outlier. From 2010 to 2015 he was: 3.22, 3.51, 3.60, 3.77, 3.62, 4.53. So it's not like there was a gradual decline, it was sort of just a cliff. That said, his velocity was down a few mph, so I don't think he'll fully bounce back unless he finds more velo. I just don't think we should 100% write him off just yet. (Jeff Long)
2015-06-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)	If the Red Sox were characters on Game of Thrones, who would they be? thanks (Bill from Los Angeles)	This is super played out ... ... and as such, right in my wheelhouse. Xander Bogaerts: Jon Snow Mookie Betts: Danaerys Targaryen Ben Cherington: Ned (tried to do the right thing, will probably lose head) Wade Miley: Catelyn (doesn't do much but yell) Rick Porcello: Robb Stark (handsome, ineffective) Clay Buchholz: Sansa (WHAT EVEN ARE YOU?) Eduardo Rodriguez: Arya (so much potential) Brock Holt: Bran (takes a lot of forms) Joe Kelly: Rickon (why do you exist?) Mike Napoli: Hodor (...yep) Christian Vazquez: Benjen Stark (plz come back) John Henry: Tywin (still calling the shots) Dustin Pedroia: Tyrion (most watchable/resourceful) Larry Lucchino: Cersei (...) David Ortiz: Jaime (lost a step but still badass) Blake Swihart: Tommen (keep trying, little guy) John Farrell: Stannis (stern but no one seems to listen) Melisandre: Pablo Sandoval (is your power real or what) Our Hopes/Dreams: Shireen Hanley Ramirez: The Hound (unlikeable but powerful) Koji Uehara: Brienne (still rooting for ya) Daniel Nava: Pod (you too!) Junichi Tawawa: Bronn (just gets stuff done) Allen Craig: Janos Slynt (just doesn't) Shane Victorino: Jorah (always hurt) Jackie Bradley: Theon (has he not suffered enough?) Justin Masterson: Beric Dondarrion (should not have been revived) Craig Breslow: Doran (smart, ineffective) Alejandro De Aza: sandsnake 1 Alexi Ogando: sandsnake 2 Tommy Layne: sandsnake 3 The Yankees: Roose Bolton The Rays: Ramsay Bolton The Blue Jays: The Night's King The Orioles: Mance Rayder And two for the book readers ... Yoan Moncada: Young Griff Rusney Castillo: Patchface (Ben Carsley)
2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat)	Due to injuries I picked up Miley, Masterson, Dickey and Norris. It's a very deep league. I obviously wasn't pleased with the latest results. Do I move on to the next group or have patience with some of these guys and which ones? (LakeRaMan from San Gabriel)	It depends on how deep your league is I guess and who the "next ones" are. In order, I'd hang onto R.A. Dickey, Bud Norris, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson. (Mike Gianella)
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)	Who are a few pitchers that you saw take a significant step forward/backward with their mechanics in 2014? (Shawnykid23 from CT)	Steps forward: Trevor Bauer with his balance and simplified delivery, Yordano Ventura with his stability, Jake Arrieta with his momentum and transition through lift-and-stride, and Carlos Carrasco with his ditching of the windup and execution from the stretch (esp repetition). Steps back: Danny Salazar in nearly all phases but especially stability, Justin Masterson with his vertical The number of current and former Indians on this list is purely indidental (Doug Thorburn)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Do you consider Jackie Bradley to be done in Boston? Also is Justin Masterson having a down year or should we expect bad numbers from him in the future? (Kevin from NJ)	I think they could give him another shot if they don't trade him, but given the crowded OF a trade wouldn't surprise me. Masterson looks like a mess right now. He is another pitcher (see my Miller answer earlier) who is having problems with his command in the zone. Is it fixable? Possibly, but I always felt like he had to be just right to be good anyway. (Mike Gianella)
2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)	In 2015,The Red Sox top 2 starters are: ______ and _______? (NightmareRec0n from Boston)	Jon Lester and Justin Masterson la la la la la I can't hear you telling me that's unrealistic (Ben Carsley)
2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)	Who has a better ROS, Justin Masterson now that he has been traded or Yordano Ventura? (Matt from WI)	Gimme Ventura, though I think Masterson is a great buy-low candidate. (Ben Carsley)
2014-06-11 12:00:00 (link to chat)	What's your favorite kind of rare baseball event? Nine-pitch, 3 K innings? Weird double plays? Walk-off catcher's interferences? (justarobert from Santa Clara)	Hi Robert! I'm partial to immaculate innings. A nine-pitch, nine-strike, three K inning. Justin Masterson (I think) did it to the Red Sox a few weeks ago. It's so wonderfully dispiriting! I mean, that has no impact on the game beyond the one scoreless half inning and the implication that the pitcher who did it is pitching well, but it's impressive and fun to watch. Also, you can do it and still lose, which is kind of amazing also. (Matthew Kory)
2014-03-19 20:00:00 (link to chat)	Who would you rather have: AJ Burnett or Justin Masterson? (Dan from GA)	Masterson, but I don't feel great about it. (Bret Sayre)
2013-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Over a full season, predict the GB% off Carlos Martinez's two-seamer. 70%? 80%? (garik16 from Strong Island)	80 is not a number I'd predict with much confidence, but he should be in that 70% club of elite worm killers. I've only got one guy hitting the 80 mark for a season on a two-seamer, and that was Justin Masterson a few years back. Check out this year's leaders, and prior years, too http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&reportType=pfx&prp=P&month=&year=2013&pitch=SI&ds=gbs&lim=200 (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-04-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)	How would you rank for the rest of the season: Justin Masterson, Carlos Villanueva, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis (nubber from tx)	He certainly won't maintain a 0.64 ERA, but I've like Carlos Villanueva for a while. So, I'll say Villanueva, Santana, Masterson, Davis. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Hello, I am in a 12-team, 8-man keeper league and have six of my keepers set but am having trouble determining my last two. They are all cheap pitchers and none are ideal but ... anyways, the choices are Brandon McCarthy ($6), Justin Masterson ($5), Randall Delgado ($2) and Glen Perkins ($1). What are your thoughts? Thanks (Tony from Minneapolis)	I like Perkins the best. He's the cheapest and there is a chance he saves some games this year. (Josh Shepardson)
2012-09-24 14:30:00 (link to chat)	How do you explain what has happened to my Indians in 2012, especially the 2nd half? (Ida from Chagrin Falls, OH)	There's no explaining a .279 second-half winning percentage, but I think the main things are a total lack of pitching behind Justin Masterson (who hasn't been great either), and the total offensive black holes in the corners (Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and Shelley Duncan/Johnny Damon). (Bill Parker)
2011-04-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Is this the year Justin Masterson turns the corner? (Jerry from MSP)	He's managed to whiff a few lefties so far this year, and that's a good sign, but it's way too early to tell. Ask again after a few more spins through the rotation. He's a guy I've always liked and rooted for, and I hope he has a long career. (Ken Funck)
2011-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Edwin Encarnacion - 30 dingers and 80 rbi this year? Justin Masterson - 15 wins and 180 K this year? (josh from VA)	Encarnacion has never hit more than 26 HR in a season, so I'll take the under there. Masterson has got to solve his crazy splits against lefties if he's going to be that good. (Tommy Bennett)
2011-02-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)	Justin Masterson...will he improve his control and finally start to move up the ladder of the game's top pitchers? Thanks. (josh from VA)	Masterson needs to figure out a way to get lefties out. I don't think he'll ever be one of the game's top pitchers -- that's a very tall order in a world with Lincecum, Halladay, Felix, et al. -- but being a solid mid-rotation guy, which he can be (and almost already is) is a good thing. (Ken Funck)
2010-09-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Hi Marc Wanted to know whether you had some opinions as to why some of these players haven't developed as some of us had hoped: * BJ Upton * Matt LaPorta * Justin Masterson * Scott Sizemore * Matt Wieters Thanks. (Phoebus from Mobile)	Upton has just not been able to keep his BABIP and batting averages high enough, but he's had plenty of power when healthy and he's been great on the basepaths. He's also a fantastic defensive player. LaPorta is a curious case, as he was supposedly all better in terms of health and his swing mechanics, but hasn't been able to consistently produce. Masterson pitches in front of a horrible defense and can't get lefties out to save his life. He could deal with the LHB thing if the defense was better, but the combination of the two has just ruined him in 2010. Sizemore has just 143 plate appearances, so let's wait on calling him a disappointment. Wieters was over hyped and has actually performed well for his position and his age, but the power just isn't there yet consistently. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)	what's your outlook for Madison Bumgarner in the 2nd half? Does he stick w/ SF? And is he worthy of a roster spot in deep mixed leagues? (Gigantes from SF)	I think he'll stick with San Fran, but yes, the league would need to be deep. He has some potential problems against right-handers, the kind of thing that once major league managers catch the scent of he won't be able to shake (ask Justin Masterson how that works for him with lefties) and his strikeout rates don't translate well into fantasy unless everything else is going perfectly for him. I think he'll be a good pitcher, but he still has a lot of work to do in his development. (Marc Normandin)
2010-06-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)	How do you see Justin Masterson long-term? Solid starter, mediocre starter, maybe a good multiple inning reliever, or something else? (Dennis from LA)	Mediocre starter, but that is very valuable if he can do that over 175-200 innings per year. I guess I see him as being closer to what Joe Blanton did last season than anything above that. (Eric Seidman)
2010-03-24 11:00:00 (link to chat)	Could the Indians give the Twins a run for the money in the Central if their rotation is league average? Given the offense stays healthy? Or will they need a near 2007 Carmona for that to be achievable? (SaberTJ from Cleveland, OH)	You know, I thought Carmona looked pretty sharp in his last spring outing. Who knows how good he'll be, but yeah, they need him to be good. Production from a LaPorta/Branyan duo at 1B would be helpful. One guy I'm pretty optimistic about is Justin Masterson. I'd put the Indians behind the Tigers and White Sox as well at the moment. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-03-24 11:00:00 (link to chat)	You like Justin Masterson or Colby Lewis this season? (Tom from Chicago)	Masterson. This goes back to translations, but it's just very odd to me how dominant Colby Lewis was in Japan. He lead the Central League in strikeouts the last two years with basically the same stuff he had when he was pitching (and not especially well) in the U.S. Maybe he's turned it all around, but it seems like the Japanese variable is doing more of the work. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Hi Marc, do you have a strong gut feeling about any of these guys?: Buchholz, Brett Anderson, Dice-K, Scott Baker, Matusz, Wade Davis, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson, Homer Bailey. Let's assume Tommy Hanson was gone several rounds ago. Please help or my entire pitching staff will be sleepers! (robertcfox from DC)	Brett Anderson and Clay Buchholz would be the two I suggest to you. Buchholz showed some positive growth in 2009 that I'm excited to see in 2010, and Brett Anderson is a future beast. (Marc Normandin)
2010-01-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)	Bigger impact for 2010, Justin Masterson or Jeff Niemann? (Ace from Aceland)	Push. (Tommy Bennett)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)	So far this October, Justin Masterson has been the bridge to Papelbon for the Red Sox. And a scary bridge he's been. Is there any chance Delcarmen and his better peripheral numbers get a shot at that role? (Matt from Athens OH)	Perhaps the Red Sox most glaring weakness all year long has been their relief pitching in front of Papelbon, no question. Okajima didn't have the season he had in 2007, Delcarmen had a shot at the 7-8 inning role earlier in the year and didn't really nail it (he has the most PA of any Red Sox pitcher in the 7th, and 2nd most in the 8th, though in what leverage situations I don't know offhand). I've championed Masterson before and I still think he can be a part of a productive late-inning solution due to his abiltiy to generate groundballs, but I still think the Sox are a pitcher short back there, and it may cost them eventually. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-06-04 16:00:00 (link to chat)	Justin Masterson: #3 starter or setup man? (CAN I HAZ A from CHEESE BURGER?)	Youz Can Haz. It's a difficult question. On many teams, a No. 3 starter. On the Red Sox, maybe not. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-05-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)	When I first saw Justin Masterson pitch it seemed like he could be so much more effective if he threw from a higher arm slot to really take advantage of his size. Then again, he already gets a lot of ground balls so maybe the time investment and risk of totally messing up his development just wasn't worth it. Your thoughts? (Jeremy from New England)	The latter. Strongly the latter. (Will Carroll)
2008-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Hey KG, what particular stats do you focus on when considering a pitching prospect? Does some stat that takes into account ability to induce ground balls come into play? And, finally, what pitchers have a chance to develop into the next Derek Lowe / Jake Westbrook? Thanks. (Mario66 from Toronto)	IP, H, K are the first three I like out, but everything is taken into account. Next Derek Lowe just might be Justin Masterson. (Kevin Goldstein)

BP Roundtables

Date	Roundtable Name	Comment
2008-10-10 13:30:00	Friday LCS	Random fact #3: When I first interviewed Justin Masterson, a couple of weeks after he was drafted, I asked him to describe himself as a pitcher. He said, "Shoot, I'm a two-seamer guy. A lot of people call it a sinker, but it's a fastball to me. It's kind of like a lefty slider." (David Laurila)
2008-10-10 13:30:00	Friday LCS	I love me some Justin Masterson. (Joe Sheehan)

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Justin Masterson threw 19,983 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2015, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2015, he relied primarily on his Sinker (88mph), Slider (79mph) and Fourseam Fastball (89mph). He also rarely threw a Change (84mph).

Baseball Prospectus