Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Comparable Players (Similarity Index )

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2017		The worst part about Will Venable's putrid offensive performance was that it recalled Eugenio Velez's somehow worse 2011 season.
2016		Once viewed as a potential late bloomer (think Raul Ibanez with less power and more speed), Venable regressed in 2014 and found himself near the bottom of San Diego's outfield pile. Injuries to said pile allowed him to claw back to the surface, but doing so wore him out: His slugging percentage failed to live up to the potential of 2013. It turns out his 2013 power production had benefited not just from Petco's tightened dimensions, but also a flurry of fence-scraping home runs. Fence-scraping is a tough talent to maintain. He could be a second-division or platoon starter for a number of teams, but it's just as likely he settles in as a fourth outfielder who can man both corner outfield positions and play center field in a pinch.
2015		When locals speak of Venable, which isn't often, they sometimes call him Mr. August thanks to his career .300/.361/.529 line during that month. Last season, he was more of a July guy: On the 11th, he got his batting average to stay above .200; on the 30th, he got his slugging percentage to stay above .300. Last year's edition of this book advised against betting the farm on Venable's "breakout" 2013 campaign, noting that it was really a two-month hot streak. Some years, the streak never comes. Venable's futility against breaking balls, which had lain dormant since 2011, chose an inopportune time to re-erupt. When a hitter exposes a weakness as glaring as Venable's against pitches with spin, it removes the incentive for pitchers to throw him anything else. If the weakness persists, it removes the incentive for managers to stick him in the lineup.
2014		It's easy to conclude from Venable's 2013 numbers that he is a late bloomer who had a breakout season. He established career highs in many categories and raised his OPS against southpaws by 150 points. Most of Venable's damage came in July and August, when he hit .345/.380/.616. The other four months were less kind: .224/.273/.408. Whereas Venable usually gets hot for two weeks, last year he got hot for two months. If Chase Headley taught us anything a season earlier, it's that the difference between a breakout and a hot streak isn't always obvious. This may well be a new Venable, but let him do it for more than two months before betting the farm.
2013		Venable did what he always does, which is flash each of the five tools in tantalizing fashion and have a nice season that seems disappointing in light of expectations created by those tantalizing tools. He is a plus defender in right field who can hold his own in center if needed. He is a graceful runner with long, easy strides and will take the extra base if he sees the opportunity. Venable wasn't the automatic out against lefties last year that he had been in the past, but he still profiles best as a platoon player. He continues to tighten his strike zone and make improvements to his game. Although his production will never match his athleticism, he is a useful player.
2012		Venable is one of the Padres' most exhilarating and exasperating players. He can drive the ball to left-center with backspin and make Petco Park, which destroys left-handed hitters, look small. He can play all three outfield spots and run the bases like Dave Winfield. But Venable focused more on basketball at Princeton, and years later, it shows. He still expands his strike zone too often and is clueless against southpaws (.212/.289/.261 for his career). Venable is a fantastic athlete who sometimes appears to be feeling his way around the diamond in a manner that calls to mind, say, Al Martin. There are very few things that Venable cannot do on the ball field. There are fewer still that he can do with any degree of consistency.
2011		The narrative surrounding the late-blooming Venable has largely concerned his respective merits and shortcomings as a fourth outfielder and a full-time player, respectively. The former Princeton basketball and baseball standout's unadjusted numbers makes him look like the former, but as with anyone who plays in Petco, those stats are meaningless unless taken in context. The proper adjustments reveal Venable to be not only deserving of full-time status, but well above average and one of the Padres' key contributors. Throw in quality defense in a corner and more than passable in center with range and an accurate arm, and you can see why Venable is an under-appreciated piece of the Padres puzzle. Like any lefty, Venable will never hit well at Petco (.221/.298/.379 at home since 2009), but his road numbers (.277/.348/.463) and defensive contributions more than make up for that unfortunate failing. A late-season change to his batting stance that raised his elbow higher off of the ground to create a shorter and straighter path to the ball may mean fewer strikeouts and more hits to come in 2011.
2010		Venable impressed the Padres so much late last season that he will enter 2010 as a starter. His power and athleticism make him intriguing, who believe the son of former major-league outfielder Max Venable has more upside than most 27-year-olds because he did not start playing baseball until his senior year of high school, and also concentrated on basketball in college as he was a two-time all-Ivy League guard at Princeton. They would prefer he play right field, but he could wind up as the center fielder if the need arises. Venable has showed good power potential, slugging over .500 against righties and away from Petco, but his plate discipline has been an issue. At worst, he should at least have a career as a solid platoon outfielder.
2009		The son of former big-leaguer Max, Will was better known for his basketball accomplishments as an amateur, where he was an all-Ivy League point guard at Princeton. He wasn't good enough for the NBA, but he was good enough for a shot in the minors, and it paid off for him when he reached the big leagues last year. He's a decent athlete with a nice feel for the game, but messing around on the boards kept him from playing a full season on the diamond until he was 23; for a player in his mid-20s, he could use some developing. There's a dusting of power, a smattering of speed, and the always-useful ability to play all three outfield positions, so he should find a spot on a bench somewhere, just like dad.
2007		Not your average tools guy, Venable`s an Ivy Leaguer with skills (assuming Princeton`s cranking out better products than Woodrow Wilson these days). Developmentally, Venable`s still a bit on the raw side for a guy who`s already 24, but he focused on hoops in college and has already made fast progress. In Fort Wayne, he had the pleasure of having his dad (Max, the former big league outfielder) as his hitting coach, but, from here on out, he won`t get to hang around one level; the Pads want to see him move up fast. He might get caught as a tweener, because he probably doesn`t have the instincts or arm to stick in center, but if he makes the jump to Double-A this summer and keeps hitting, he`ll get onto big-league radars.

BP Articles

BP Chats

BP Roundtables

PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC