Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 68)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	75	Vic Darensbourg	2007	0.00	DNP
2	75	Joe Nelson	2011	0.00	DNP
3	75	Yasuhiko Yabuta	2009	14.14
4	74	Kerry Ligtenberg	2007	0.00	DNP
5	74	Gary Glover	2013	0.00	DNP
6	74	Randy Flores	2012	0.00	DNP
7	74	Todd Jones	2004	4.26
8	73	Ron Mahay	2007	2.69
9	73	Tim Byrdak	2010	3.72
10	73	Jim Brower	2009	0.00	DNP
11	72	Dan Wheeler	2014	0.00	DNP
12	71	Dan Plesac	1998	3.96
13	71	Chin-hui Tsao	2017	0.00	DNP
14	71	Alan Embree	2006	3.61
15	71	Jesse Orosco	1993	3.97
16	71	Valerio De Los Santos	2009	0.00	DNP
17	71	Chad Durbin	2014	0.00	DNP
18	71	Brian Sanches	2015	0.00	DNP
19	70	Yoshinori Tateyama	2012	10.06
20	70	Julio Manon	2009	0.00	DNP
21	70	Steve Hamilton	1971	3.02
22	69	Buddy Carlyle	2014	1.74
23	69	Ken Ray	2011	0.00	DNP
24	69	Dan Miceli	2007	0.00	DNP
25	69	Chris Nichting	2002	4.46
26	69	Greg Swindell	2001	4.53
27	69	Mark Guthrie	2002	2.44
28	69	Michael Gonzalez	2014	0.00	DNP
29	69	Randy Williams	2012	0.00	DNP
30	69	Tippy Martinez	1986	5.63
31	69	Barney Schultz	1963	3.73
32	68	Jason Motte	2018	0.00	DNP
33	68	Dennis Cook	1999	3.86
34	68	Lindy McDaniel	1972	3.04
35	68	Justin Speier	2010	0.00	DNP
36	68	Kevin Gregg	2014	10.00
37	68	John Wasdin	2009	0.00	DNP
38	68	Bobby Tiefenauer	1966	0.00	DNP
39	68	Alejandro Pena	1995	5.20
40	68	Keith Foulke	2009	0.00	DNP
41	68	Rudy Seanez	2005	2.83
42	67	Roger Mason	1994	4.50
43	67	Mike Lincoln	2011	0.00	DNP
44	67	Dustin McGowan	2018	0.00	DNP
45	67	Brad Clontz	2007	0.00	DNP
46	67	Joel Peralta	2012	3.76
47	67	Jason Lane	2013	0.00	DNP
48	67	John Bale	2010	0.00	DNP
49	67	Mike Ryba	1939	0.00	DNP
50	67	Travis Driskill	2008	0.00	DNP
51	67	Kyle Farnsworth	2012	4.33
52	67	Rosy Ryan	1934	0.00	DNP
53	66	Chad Qualls	2015	4.38
54	66	Bud Byerly	1957	3.51
55	66	Guillermo Mota	2010	4.83
56	66	Craig Breslow	2017	5.35
57	66	Bob Patterson	1995	3.04
58	66	Rod Beck	2005	0.00	DNP
59	66	Neal Cotts	2016	0.00	DNP
60	65	Dae-Sung Koo	2006	0.00	DNP
61	65	Bill Henry	1964	1.56
62	65	Dale Thayer	2017	0.00	DNP
63	65	Mike Trombley	2003	0.00	DNP
64	65	Raul Valdes	2014	12.27
65	65	Matt Herges	2006	5.45
66	65	Jeff Montgomery	1998	5.63
67	65	Craig Lefferts	1994	5.19
68	65	Aurelio Lopez	1985	5.21
69	65	Joe Hoerner	1973	5.63
70	65	Bruce Kison	1986	0.00	DNP
71	65	Tony Fossas	1994	4.76
72	65	Mike Remlinger	2002	2.38
73	64	Joe Grzenda	1973	0.00	DNP
74	64	Bryan Corey	2010	0.00	DNP
75	64	Tom Burgmeier	1980	2.73
76	64	Clint Brown	1940	4.03
77	64	Ted Wilks	1952	4.29
78	64	Kirk Bullinger	2006	0.00	DNP
79	64	Rick Aguilera	1998	4.24
80	64	Ed Vosberg	1998	0.00	DNP
81	64	Scott Sauerbeck	2008	0.00	DNP
82	64	Ron Villone	2006	5.38
83	64	Ricky Bottalico	2006	0.00	DNP
84	64	Francisco Rodriguez	2018	0.00	DNP
85	64	Gary Lavelle	1985	3.84
86	63	Dave Veres	2003	4.68
87	63	Scott Atchison	2012	1.93
88	63	Oliver Perez	2018	1.67
89	63	Eddie Guardado	2007	7.24
90	63	Dick Drago	1981	5.53
91	63	Joe Blanton	2017	5.89
92	63	Jeff Francis	2017	0.00	DNP
93	63	Jakie May	1932	6.23
94	63	Mike Fetters	2001	6.08
95	63	John Hiller	1979	5.45
96	62	Armando Benitez	2009	0.00	DNP
97	62	Eddie Gaillard	2007	0.00	DNP
98	62	Mike Stanton	2003	4.96
99	62	Rick White	2005	4.80
100	62	Jim Gott	1996	0.00	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2017		It's easy to confuse "daft" (silly and foolish) with "deft" (skillful and adept), so here's a primer: Lowe was a deft reliever in 2015, making batters look daft when his fastball jumped to 96 and it made his slider that much better. Last year Lowe's fastball dipped to 93, at which point Brad Ausmus realized he would have to be daft to still use him as a setup man. So he basically lost all playing time down the stretch. But the team's on the hook for over $5 million (thanks to his deft agent), so he'll need to figure out, at age 34, how to throw it much harder.
2016		After throwing only 18 innings between 2013 and 2014 due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, Lowe took full advantage of Safeco Field for four months before ending the season as a key cog in the Blue Jays' bullpen. Right-handed hitters have historically loathed facing Lowe, who serves up sliders like a White Castle line cook, but their collective .523 OPS against him was over 100 points lower than his career mark. More importantly, he struck out David Freese twice this past summer, which was undoubtedly good for Lowe's confidence, but in reality was more like having your first girlfriend finally see you out with someone new... four years after she broke up with you.
2013		Armed with a mid-90s fastball and sharp slider, Lowe tantalizes with his talent and frustrates with his inconsistency. Since coming to Texas as part of 2010’s Justin Smoak-Cliff Lee trade, the right-hander has worked in middle relief for the Rangers, posting an acceptable 3.63 ERA in two seasons. However, Lowe became an afterthought in the bullpen last September as his velocity dropped a tick and he was battered down the stretch. Iffy command makes him hittable more often than he should be, given his closer-type stuff. Luckily for the Rangers, they should have enough back-end arms to keep him in a middle-relief role this season.
2012		Acquired along with Cliff Lee in the summer of 2010, Lowe finally made an impact in 2011, appearing in 52 games and showing the type of stuff that can find a home in the back of any major league bullpen. Despite owning well above-average stuff, most notably a 96-97 mph fastball and a nasty hard slider, Lowe doesn’t have the numbers to back up the nastiness; he misses bats but he doesn’t overwhelm hitters. He struggles with control, which makes him hittable and prone to the free pass, and he lacks consistency, pitching well for a few weeks before losing his release point and pitching poorly for a few weeks. His stuff will keep Lowe employed, but the inconsistency will keep fans and management frustrated.
2011		Drafted out of the University of Texas at Arlington by the Seattle Mariners in 2004, the 27-year-old reliever found himself back in Arlington as part of the Cliff Lee/Justin Smoak trade. Still recovering from back surgery, Lowe logged only three innings of work with Texas during the regular season, but should bring his late-inning, 95 mph fastball-slider arsenal to the 2011 bullpen, where he'll attempt to tap into the promise that his production has yet to reflect.
2010		Lowe cut down on his changeup usage in 2009 in favor of his slider, and right-handers really struggled to hit him as a result, averaging only .213/.257/.281 as compared to .250/.350/.326. Even better, lefties who had turned into a pretty realistic Lou Gehrig facsimile in '08, shrunk down to a more endurable .253/.335/.466. Lowe pitched primarily in the eighth inning for the Mariners, holding down leads for Aardsma to close out. He also seemed to get all the inherited runners that Aardsma was protected from seeing, but was only moderately successful at stranding them. With a BABIP of only .274, it's clear that Mariners' defense helped him out, but he also helped himself by cutting a walk and a half off of his walk rate. Still, his fly-ball tendencies make him a bit dangerous in high-leverage situations, especially on the road.
2009		After trading J.J. Putz to the Mets and returning Brandon Morrow to his rightful place in the rotation, the Mariners find themselves in need of a closer. Lowe, who occupied the setup role at times last season, would be the logical choice, but for his propensity to allow walks and homers. His mid-90s fastball, biting slider, and lefty-killing changeup give him the necessary raw materials to be a dominant short reliever, but he needs to regain the feel for his pitches which he possessed before undergoing two elbow surgeries in 2007. Perhaps another year removed from the knife will allow him to do so.
2008		Prior to the microfracture elbow surgery Mark Lowe had before last season, his calling card was a mid-90s fastball with good life that made him ideal for relief work. The radar-gun readings were still good when Lowe returned from the DL at the end of July, but he only lasted four appearances before elbow pain stopped him cold. While reports said he was throwing without pain again over the offseason, doing so under game conditions is a completely different animal.
2007		Seattle`s fifth-round pick in 2004, Lowe impressed the Mariners with a big fastball that touches triple digits and tore through the Cal and Texas leagues prior to landing in Seattle. Then came the arm pain, not surprising given the organization`s track record with young pitchers. `Minor` arthroscopic elbow surgery after the season turned out to be more substantial than expected, as Lowe had microfracture surgery to help generate new cartilage in the joint. There`s no telling if he`ll be ready to start the season, and, even if he is, if he`ll live up to the potential he showed in 2006.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Mark Lowe threw 6,649 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2016, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2016, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph) and Slider (85mph). He also rarely threw a Change (87mph).